Mt Rainier: Concerned it will erupt in the future. (Seattle: homeowners insurance, new home)

[moochdawgg]

Hello I'm considering a move to Pierce Co. anywhere from graham,orting, buckley to enumclaw. Currently living in east bay area and feel the need to get out of here for fresh start.

My concern is that Mt. rainier may erupt and living in that area, lahar flows and debris will wipe us out. Does anyone know the odds of that happening and the type of destruction in that region? Last time it erupted, was 1854. Or would most of w. wa. be wiped out alltogether. Bad move ?????

[allforcats]

Some useful and fascinating resources to answer your questions:
Volcanologists keep wary eye on Mount Rainier
Rainier Eruption Odds Low, Impact High, Expert Says
The Hazards of Mount Rainier
Highlight: Mount Rainier Lahar Warning System, Pilot Project
Synopsis of Mt. Rainier Volcanic Hazards

The various monitoring organizations agree that when Mt. Rainier erupts, the town of Orting will likely be completely buried and destroyed by pyroclastic flows. Many other towns, including Sumner and Auburn, sit atop previous pyroclastic flows. An automated system has been set up with sensors on Mt. Rainier and sirens at lower areas to warn of serious volcanic activity. The sirens were established, most importantly, to get the children out of schools and out of the area. (The sirens are tested periodically and in the last two tests a couple of them didn't work.) Estimates are that Orting folk will have anywhere from 50 minutes to four hours to evacuate successfully in the event of a volcanic event. The towns of South Hill, Puyallup and Milton are in the expected path of pyroclastic flows.

To find out, as you asked, "the type of destruction", read anything about the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980 or the volcano on Montserrat in 1997. The destruction is expected to be quite complete along its paths, and fairly fast.

If anyone actually knew, as you asked, "the odds of that happening", they would be the richest person in North America! The experts say Mt. Rainier will blow anytime from the next minute to 100 years from now, and that it's due pretty soon in terms of past frequency.

I love western Washington and have lived here for 23 adult years, and I would not live in any of the locations I've mentioned if you paid me a million dollars!

[scirocco22]

Again, allforcats has provided some good information.

Although the probability exists, the chances of Mt. Rainier erupting with catastrophic results in our lifetime is slim. This is according to many renown geologists.

Sure it could happen tomorrow but many natural occurrences that could destruct your abode or cause you physical harm or death could also happen. It should have very little to do with your decision to move to the area.

And no, according to the experts, it won't wipe out the entire western Washington area. Study the links given and do your own search on articles and studies pertaining to Mt. Rainier to see what area will be mostly affected.

[moochdawgg]

thanks allforcats and scirocc22 for the great info. My main thought was I dont want to live in an area that I put 300k into a country property and have it buried by 100' of mud. Dont think homeowners insurance will cover that. Is there better area's to the north that are in that price range?

[allforcats]

Scir, congrats on reaching 1000!! Wow! :-)

[allforcats]

Moochdawg and Scirocco22, this is such a fascinating topic! You might love this website -- Geotimes, a pretty respectable mass-market scientific publication, has a great page on the potential hazards of Mt. Rainier. They include a color map giving locations of greatest to lowest hazard. Moochdawg, you can see from the map that, as scirocco22 said, nowhere near all of western Washington, not even more than a small portion, is in jeopardy. Geotimes — April 2004 — Paths of Destruction: The Hidden Threat at Mount Rainier

One of the most useful reports I've found, in a fairly short presentation, is from one of our major local TV channels: KING5 Seattle News | KING 5 News - Mount St. Helens Anniversary
In terms of "timing", they state, "A major lahar on Mt. Rainier happens about once every 500 to 1000 years. And it's been about 550 years since the last one."
They say the evidence for mud flows is in "Ashford, Elbe, Orting, Puyallup, Auburn, Commencement Bay, Kent and even Renton."
They state that the towns "in direct danger" in the case of a volcanic eruption would be "Orting, Sumner, Ashford, Elbe, Packwood, Randle, Greenwater and parts of Puyallup. The flow could also affect parts of Tacoma, Buckley and Enumclaw."

So, if you stay away from the overall area shown on the Geotimes map and mentioned in the King5 article, you would probably avoid any magic touch from the magic mountain :-) So you could proceed to find other areas of western Washington that look good to you, eh?

[allforcats]

Uhh, we both forgot to tell you that the lahars would flow to Puget Sound because of the shape of the mountains and the shape of the valleys. The lahars and whatall are not at all likely to flow north, to, say Seattle. This is because the valleys immediately leaving Mt. Rainier form natural "funnels" that have in the past taken the flows to the Sound and are expected to do so in the future. Also, Mt. Rainier is one mountain in a chain of mountains, the Cascades. So the high sides of the valleys and the sides of neighboring mountains are expected to "block" any northward flow and any far southward flow.

[mthomson]

Think of all the additional waterfront homes there would be! Just kidding. Probably a valid concern, but I think relative to natural disasters in other areas it's a pretty slim chance.

[allforcats]

Moochdawg, please help us to make suggestions for you. We get that you'd like to look in some fairly out-of-the-way location, but are we talkin' like Fall City/Carnation, somewhat near the big cities, or like Darrington/Marblemount, pretty darned far away from the city lights? Have you played with Mapquest or another map of WA?

[moochdawgg]

Again thanks for all your help Allforcats, I was up there first week of sept. looked around graham, orting, buckley, bonney lk, encumclaw, auburn and maple valley. Love the orting valley along the Puyallap & carbon rivers, saw salmon being caught there and said this is my kind of place to live. Bad commute, but beautiful. Nice homes on an acre for around 300-350 and was sold. Did not take time to look to the north though. I'm tried of the heat here and new home construction. Unsure about wheather in the northern sound region also. Property taxes are an issue for us as well. Pierce co. I'm told has the lowest rates in that region. However I understand there going up more than the standard one percent. Thank you again.