Ahh the beauty of patience (Seattle, Tacoma: sale, real estate, rent)

[irrational exuberance]

[Moderator Cut: Inappropriate Comments] Isnt it beautiful whats happening right now in our local markets. My predictions for local papers headlines in July/August 2008. "Local building of residential real estate building activity hits a 20 year low" I guess we see that when you are borrowing money, no matter where you live, if the standards are tightly regulated your affected. And with oil 111 a barrel and gas prices knocking on the door of $4 a gallon that doesnt bid well for consumer or investors confidence. I guess we will see how 600 a person turns around the economy.

I have a question, I read on someones local website about Gig Harbor was close to Microsoft, Boeing, and Amazon. Im confused, the two or three times I been to Gig Harbor it was like 20 miles up Highway 16 and that is the next exit south of Downtown Tacoma. How is that even close to Seattle? I would hate to make that commute......but hey go buy a dream house in Gig Harbor today!!!!! Not quite sure what the labor market is in Gig Harbor or any corporations in Gig Harbor but a realtor selling in Gig Harbor says go buy today so that what you should do! Like I said, I never had any reason to go to Gig Harbor but if there is some unknown strong labor market out there can someone fill me in?

[mthomson]

According to MapQuest, Gig Harbor to Seattle is 45 miles, estimated time 50 min. It is 10 miles on HWY 16...20 miles puts you past Port Orchard. From my office in North Gig Harbor (just south of Port Orchard) it takes me 45 min to get to SafeCo Field (South side of Seattle) with no traffic.
Certainly not a commute everybody wants to do daily, but with the public transit system and the major commutes many out-of-state folks are used to, not that bad, either.
Not a huge labor market in Gig Harbor, which is why many of our residents have careers that allow them to work from home often or work away for a few days at a time and be home for a few days at a stretch.

[irrational exuberance]

Funny I live near Federal Way and it takes me almost 40 minutes to get to Downtown on a clear day. Matter of fact I would think it would take me almost 40 minutes to get to Gig Harbor from where I live. An during rush hour traffic in the morning, It takes me about 1.5 hours to get to Seattle. [Moderator Cut: Personal Comments] Gig Harbor is nice and one of my good friends is kicking himself for not buying land in Gig Harbor in 2003. But do you agree on my title/theme of the local papers around July or August 2008?

[mthomson]

You must drive REALLY slowly. It took my wife 35-40 min to get from Gig Harbor to SeaTac when she worked there, and that was in rush hour. I could get from my home to Seattle Pacific U in the Queen Anne part of Seattle in 65 min. [Moderator Cut: Orphaned] .

I would imagine your headlines will be on the right track, though I haven't tracked building #'s for 20 years. Here's a good example for you, though. There's a new developement in North Gig Harbor (right behind Target). Homes that were listed at $539k about a year ago just had their prices dropped to $389k! Another new development off of Peacock Hill has 19 new homes, all with $80k-$100k price reductions, and 0 of 19 have sold.
New construction is really struggling in Gig Harbor.

[irrational exuberance]

I hardly doubt I drive slow its just Getting off Highway 16 in Downtown Tacoma is a nightmare. Driving through Federal Way is a nightmare and drive through Boeing field in Seattle is a nightmare. It takes 45 minutes to drive from Lakewood to Downtown Tacoma no a typical day

[mthomson]

Well there's your problem! You don't know where you're going! If you're trying to get from Gig Harbor to Seattle or Renton and you're driving through Lakewood and Downtown Tacoma, no wonder it takes you so long to get everywhere.
HWY 16 doesn't take you to downtown Tacoma, either. Don't drive through Federal Way, take I-5 right past it. Sure, you'll hit slowdowns where HWY 16 and I5 meet, and again in Fife, and again near Enchanted PKWY, but those aren't nightmarish. Go to LA, Boston, NY, or Phoenix if you want nightmarish.

[irrational exuberance]

I assure you I have seen alot worse traffic than here but this is where I live now so this is what I deal with. If you go to every other major city they have more than 2 to 3 major freeways look at Houston and Atlanta and LA if you can get past the traffic jams trying to get on the next 10-12 lane freeway. But what are some builders thinking? I see builders lower there prices once every 2 months...........One agent told me people are complaining that they bought there houses for 415k in Early 2007 and now those same ones are 349k but where 364k. I would mad if that was me, then again I am a buy and hold but I fully understand the implications of a house 60k cheaper that means when its time to sell I have a 60k cushion or what was formerly known as equity.........Maybe 2009 is a good time to buy a house and not at the end of this year

[irrational exuberance]

Good article in the PI to read

As homes go up, prices go down (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/355253_newhomes17.html - broken link)

[mthomson]

What the builders are thinking is they want to make money. I'm not sure what properties you're referring to with the $60k cushion, and had you bought you'd be mad, but all of the new construction over here that is experiencing $80k-$130k price reductions are doing that because NOBODY--literally not a person--is buying. Fortunately, most people are either smart enough on their own or have hired reputable real estate agents that can steer them clear of a bad deal.
List prices coming down means nothing other than they were priced too high to begin with. It's only a concern when sale prices come down, and that still hasn't happened in Gig Harbor.
Buying in '09 is a great idea if you're happy renting and making somebody else wealthier with your rent. If you buy now, there's a very good chance your home won't begin appreciating until '09 or '10, but if you're not planning on selling in a year or two, might as well start paying yourself rather than a landlord.

[irrational exuberance]

Actually renting makes my wife and I wealthier, seeing is how we save our extra money and dont increase our spending or lifestyle. When your dealing with 300k+ the implication of borrowing 30k or more is huge and the same goes with the implications of investing 30k+. When you compare the two we rent for 1/3 that of a mortgage and we would only loose 4k or so in year 1. So rent vs buy only is effective when prices are increasing but its a double positive when prices are decreasing