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Old 04-30-2021, 11:40 PM
 
Location: Vancouver, WA
8,214 posts, read 16,697,627 times
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Here in Vancouver, demand is greatly outpacing supply. Buyers are getting into bidding wars, paying above listing, etc... I heard from one local who bought here saying that things are even worse in Seattle. Are you seeing the same spike in home prices along with inventory shortage in your part of the state? I'm wondering if this is only happening in the larger or hotter WA markets? Or instead, is the trend pretty much consistent across the entire state even in the smaller cities which don't normally attract as much attention or buyers?

In addition, there is another strange phenomenon occurring where rents are going in the opposite direction of home prices. I was just reading about this occurrence which seems to be related to Covid, at least inpart.

"Even stranger, in America’s big metros, home prices and rents are going in opposite directions. Home values increased in all of the 100 largest metros in the U.S., according to Zillow data. But in some of the richest cities—San Jose; Seattle; New York; Boston; Austin; San Francisco; Washington, D.C.; Los Angeles; and Chicago—rent prices fell, many by double-digit percentages. In many cases, the gap was absurdly large."

In America’s largest, richest cities, home prices and rents are going in opposite directions.

Derek
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Old 04-30-2021, 11:51 PM
 
Location: Edmonds, WA
8,975 posts, read 10,210,944 times
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It’s happening just about everywhere, not just in Washington.
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Old 05-01-2021, 12:23 AM
 
Location: Vancouver, WA
8,214 posts, read 16,697,627 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluefox View Post
It’s happening just about everywhere, not just in Washington.
Right, like the article talks about all the big metros. However, my question has more to do with the market statewide including the smaller towns or less hot market traditionally. Obviously places like Seattle, Tacoma, Bellingham and Vancouver are going nuts. But what places like Aberdeen, Camano, Kelso, Yakima, Walla Walla, Ellensburg, etc..?

There are actually cities shrinking in population for various reasons. So, I wouldn't expect those market to be going up. But what about the one in between with slow growth, more remote and normally associated with flat values?

Derek
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Old 05-01-2021, 12:39 AM
 
Location: Forest bathing
3,205 posts, read 2,485,066 times
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In the neighborhood where I grew up, this home was listed at $549,000 and sold for $752,000. That is crazy. Large lot with creek frontage and updated Craftsman.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15821194
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Old 05-01-2021, 10:09 AM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,711 posts, read 58,042,598 times
Reputation: 46182
Quote:
Originally Posted by MtnSurfer View Post
Here in Vancouver, demand is greatly outpacing supply. ...
...

"Even stranger, in America’s big metros, home prices and rents are going in opposite directions. Home values increased in all of the 100 largest metros in the U.S., according to Zillow data. But in some of the richest cities—San Jose; Seattle; New York; Boston; Austin; San Francisco; Washington, D.C.; Los Angeles; and Chicago—rent prices fell, many by double-digit percentages. In many cases, the gap was absurdly large."

In America’s largest, richest cities, home prices and rents are going in opposite directions.

Derek
Very reasonable and predictable...

Supply / Demand.

I have had a LOT of nationwide interest in the rural properties I have been selling and renting this yr. (everyone wants OUT of metro, EXCEPT those desiring to buy at high prices, which are enough people to keep prices rising in desirable metro areas). Very similar to owning in a trendy vacation location. Limitied availability of desireable properties and locations, and plenty of 'dreamy' buyers to sustain inflated prices forever.

I would have to guess there are more renters than buyers in deep metro areas, and plenty of 'investors' willing to buy. Gentrification + I feel there may be a significant short-term risk in metro properties (commercial and residential). LT people will return to metro, once they get their fill of no services / culturural events in rural (for what they were previously accustomed to). Rising fuel prices will be a burden, but ecommerce and WFH will help to balance the pain.
As rents increase, so will buyer’s remorse. We are already seeing the emergence of a new genre of feature profile in major newspapers: the city slicker who moved to the suburbs, and hates it there.

I expect a significant shift in RE valuations / demand similar to current market fluctuations. (shifting investments / re-allocating / positioning) far more complex / risky with low liquidity of RE. Be VERY careful where you park your RE $$. You might be stuck for decades. BTDT. My WY and Colorado properties were DEAD in 1980's, but very much alive today... (40 yrs later).
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Old 05-01-2021, 11:03 AM
 
Location: Vancouver, WA
8,214 posts, read 16,697,627 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xPlorer48 View Post
In the neighborhood where I grew up, this home was listed at $549,000 and sold for $752,000. That is crazy. Large lot with creek frontage and updated Craftsman.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15821194
Wow, 750k for that little, old thing. And jumping 200k above listing is pretty crazy indeed.

The look from the outside vs. inside is pretty different. But still, 750k? It doesn't even appear to have a garage. My guess is that its the land that really did it and 1/2 acre. I bet taxes aren't going to be pretty on that one once reassessed.

Derek
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Old 05-01-2021, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Vancouver, WA
8,214 posts, read 16,697,627 times
Reputation: 9463
Quote:
Originally Posted by StealthRabbit View Post
Very reasonable and predictable...

Supply / Demand.

I have had a LOT of nationwide interest in the rural properties I have been selling and renting this yr. (everyone wants OUT of metro, EXCEPT those desiring to buy at high prices, which are enough people to keep prices rising in desirable metro areas). Very similar to owning in a trendy vacation location. Limitied availability of desireable properties and locations, and plenty of 'dreamy' buyers to sustain inflated prices forever.

I would have to guess there are more renters than buyers in deep metro areas, and plenty of 'investors' willing to buy. Gentrification + I feel there may be a significant short-term risk in metro properties (commercial and residential). LT people will return to metro, once they get their fill of no services / culturural events in rural (for what they were previously accustomed to). Rising fuel prices will be a burden, but ecommerce and WFH will help to balance the pain.
As rents increase, so will buyer’s remorse. We are already seeing the emergence of a new genre of feature profile in major newspapers: the city slicker who moved to the suburbs, and hates it there.
I expect a significant shift in RE valuations / demand similar to current market fluctuations. (shifting investments / re-allocating / positioning) far more complex / risky with low liquidity of RE. Be VERY careful where you park your RE $$. You might be stuck for decades. BTDT. My WY and Colorado properties were DEAD in 1980's, but very much alive today... (40 yrs later).
Are your rental markets going up or down? Just curious.

Derek
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Old 05-01-2021, 11:10 AM
 
Location: Rochester, WA
14,483 posts, read 12,107,650 times
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It's pretty crazy around here too. LOTS of buyers fighting over too few listings. Prices are going way up, which should be good news for all of us and our investments, but it's not always.

Sensible, reasonable, *normal* buyers are having a real hard time getting offers looked at, amid a sea of other buyers who are coming in with all kinds of money and waiving all inspections, appraisals, and other contingencies. It's not how this business should be done.
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Old 05-01-2021, 01:00 PM
 
Location: PNW
1,683 posts, read 2,707,654 times
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It's crazy. A house in our neighborhood that was up for sale a few years ago with lots of looks and no offers (it has some quirks) now has a sold sign on it after a few days of being up for sale again. It makes no sense to sell if you don't have to, because you lose money (realtor fees etc.) selling and would have to compete for an overpriced new property.
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Old 05-01-2021, 01:51 PM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,711 posts, read 58,042,598 times
Reputation: 46182
Quote:
Originally Posted by MtnSurfer View Post
Are your rental markets going up or down? Just curious.

Derek
Rural rents remain very strong in demand and price.

I don't raise rents for existing tenants unless taxes go crazy, tenants actually get a decent deal, and take very good care to stay for 7-10 yrs. I adjust to high market rates when re-renting.

With current high valuations, it is real tough to buy and rent for acceptable cash flows. Thus I transitioned my income properties away from PNW. While I prefer commercial RE properties, that market is too uncertain in the short term (except for land leases, senior housing, and medical).
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