Landscape Gardener moving to WA needs advice! (Seattle, Vancouver: apartments, renting)

[StealthRabbit]

I'll have to agree with some of what the BBear said, and I have my own struggles with the PNW (mega Taxes + warmth (chill) of friends... I'm a prairie / farm kid...), but... there are still some less expensive places out there. I have currently sold my investment props (great time to be a seller) and looking actively for replacement props, screen 50 - 100/week. At this point I'll probably take advantage of the very good tax rate, and forget doing 1031 exchanges. (few bargains available now)

I have found several 'fixer' acreages in most of the named counties for under $200k, but not too many in the $130k range. (as in previous yrs). I don't do metro stuff, (King, Pierce, Thurston) nor stuff on remote gravel roads, as I won't buy something I cannot re-sell tomorrow for a profit. Those bargains will be coming back, and a few are still there. Competition for bargains is still pretty strong and you have to know what you want and act quick. I'll likely park my funds and wait for a better day. Prime props are gonna stay high. - There are lots of folks afraid of adding elbow grease / risk. And a lot of 'double- income folks' who have more $$ than time, and often lacking skills for 'fixing'.

There is a lot of variation in pricing across the 'growing' PNW, but you have to be pretty 'stealth' in finding the deals. If a realtor has it listed, it is likely too late for a deal, (unless you are on very good terms with a realtor who will pass a deal along). Most counties have GIS maps and you can do your own research. I suggest you find an area you want to live BEFORE plunking down any $$, unless you find something you can re-sell for a profit (must figure 10%, just to break even). Usually if you are 5 minutes from the freeway (I-5) or 10 minutes from a decent town, you will be able to market it, and find some kind of work. If you pick the right spots to buy and sell, there is really no reason to have to work a job, with current $250k/24months - deferred gains on primary residence. Keep your dreams alive, but be realistic (and patient).

[BanteringBear]

Jan. I do think Gretchen was interested in purchasing a fixer to "live" in, not to flip for a quick profit like you seem to be doing/talking about. Houses, historically, are shelter, not get rich quick tools. Lately, I know that's been hard for some folks to understand. Over 20% appreciation per year is not only abnormal, it's unsustainable. It is folks like you, flipping houses, and timing markets who drove up prices for the the average people who just want a home to live in. The reason I discourage anyone from buying anywhere in WA right now, is homes are no longer a safe place to park your money. They are on the verge of depreciation. Look at areas like NV, CA, AZ, as well as the Northeast. Some have already lost 20% of their peak value. In hindsight, was it smart for those first time buyers to buy at the peak? No. They are upside down in a house, unable to sell if they should need to. For you to try to insinuate that some of the repressed areas in WA are still affordable does a disservice to all that read here. I was just in Lewis County last week looking at fixers, and let me tell you something, there are NO GOOD DEALS right now. Housing, in the longterm, will be dictated by LOCAL WAGES, not out of the area flippers looking for the last cheap thing. As I mentioned, there has been little, if any, economic prosperity in Lewis, Grays Harbor, and Cowlitz counties over the past 5 years, yet prices have skyrocketed. Just because you can buy a house in Aberdeen for $130k doesn't mean it's a good deal. Those same houses were less than $50k a few short years ago. The local folks are as poor as they come, and $50k is much more approachable, than $130k. Foreget minimum wage jobs, at times there are NO JOBS. I'd like to see an end to the "investment" in single family homes by people like you. It has done a great disservice to the hard working people of this country. Take a look in the mirror and ask yourself how you are helping your fellow citizens by flipping these properties. Greed is not good.

[Symi81]

"They are on the verge of depreciation. Look at areas like NV, CA, AZ, as well as the Northeast."

The market conditions in the Puget Sound area are nothing like they are in "bubble" area you mentioned. Washington was a little later to the reconomic recovery party, and consaquently there was less speculation & "flipping" here than in other regions. Whats mainly boosted Puget Sound real estate prices is strong demand, powered by a stong economy and continued population growth. Growth management laws help restrict growth to a more confined area, which limits unchecked new home building and probably helps keep prices higher. Puget Sound's economy is showing no signs of slowing down, we still havnt peaked. I dont think real estate prices in Puget Sound are ever going to decline substantially.

Getting back to the original topic, have you considered the Tri-City region of Eastern Washington? Its much more affordable than Puget Sound. Due to the low elevation (near sealevel) Tri-Cities climate is fairly temperate (for being east of the mountains) in the winter. I dont know exactly when the growing seasons starts, as Im not a farmer, but Im sure its longer than anywhere in Montana or the rest of Eastern Wa. One major drawback to tri cities is you will need to secure water rights to irrigate your crops, I dont know how difficult that is...

Some examples of prices that are listed in Tri Cities:
10 irrigated acres for $170,000
2.5 acres $39,900
20 acres 90k
50 acres 180k
20 acres, irrigated, 155k and up

[BanteringBear]

"The market conditions in the Puget Sound area are nothing like they are in "bubble" area you mentioned. Washington was a little later to the reconomic recovery party, and consaquently there was less speculation & "flipping" here than in other regions."

This is an outrageous statement, and an outright lie. The bubble is national due to LOOSE LENDING. It seems to me you better get your facts straight before you go spewing such tripe. Why don't you read this mornings Columbian (Vancouver). It reads:

“A shake-up in the nation’s subprime mortgage lending industry is beginning to have an impact in Clark County. Some offices have closed, others have cut staffing to deal with a slowdown in the housing market and tighter regulations related to higher interest rate loans sold to people with weak (subprime) credit.”

“The Vancouver office of Home 123 Mortgage, which stopped issuing loan applications last week amid rumors of the impending bankruptcy of its parent company, New Century Financial Corp. Vancouver-based lender Millennium Funding Group, which cut 76 employees from its Vancouver work force earlier this month.”

“‘Declining home sales and a subsequent rise in loan defaults have forced ‘investors away from purchasing these loans,’ said Dave Botieff, manager of four Vancouver branches of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.”

You say:

"Whats mainly boosted Puget Sound real estate prices is strong demand, powered by a stong economy and continued population growth."

Strong demand, yes, SPECULATIVE DEMAND. I have a sense you don't know a thing about real estate.

And you follow:

"Puget Sound's economy is showing no signs of slowing down, we still havnt peaked"

More BS. Wages are flat to DOWN, yet home prices are up. Do you see a disconnect anywhere? Your "we're special" talk is nothing but hot air. Again, get your facts straight.

Typically I don't even respond to such nonsense, but readers here, especially prospective home buyers, need to know the truth about what's going on. The Puget Sound area is ripe for a MAJOR correction. Furthermore, Washington has a history of towns going bust, followed by years of economic pain.

[StealthRabbit]

Originally Posted by BanteringBear

... I'd like to see an end to the "investment" in single family homes by people like you. It has done a great disservice to the hard working people of this country. Take a look in the mirror and ask yourself how you are helping your fellow citizens by flipping these properties. Greed is not good.

guess you've got the wrong guy...

I don't flip single family residences, I only deal commercial (non-residential) props or acreages I keep (view) and DO NOT SPLIT, unless it is in a UGA and is zoned commercial. Having been chased from my Colorado farm 25 yrs ago due to growth, and being forced from my Vancouver farm 15 yrs ago due to growth, I have come to realize that there will be growth inspite of my exhaustive efforts to curtail during county planning meetings. It is a real pain to loose a farm that you have spent 10-20 yrs developing the soil, and planting trees and berries.

and... I now pay $33/day (over $10,000/yr) WA property tax due to bozo's paying too much for residences. This on a place we built 15 yrs ago as a home school project, for less than $100k including land. (dug footing by hand...). Since we are in a "national scenic area", we can't split, nor can we use our property to cut timber or have a business enterprise (x-mas trees, bed and breafast, retreat center, u-pick fruit...) We too, are just stuck paying taxes (plenty of taxes) for an artificially inflated home value.

I had mentioned buying 'bargains' (that I could resale tomorrow) as a warning of not 'over paying'. We have built a few rural residences as homeschool projects so the kids could learn to build + accrue equity for their own downpayments. I didn't make the tax laws, but... I do encourage others to do what they need to do to get into an affordable (paid off) place. At this point that often involves 'fixing and selling every 2 yrs.' (for some, not for me). there are still plenty of junkers out there, I too was in Lewis County last week, and noticed several. (not necessarly 'listed', tho some are).

I don't spend a lot of time looking in the mirror, I'm not into "ME", I spend my time volunteering and giving $$ for the many in need. (We live on the same $80/month spending money that we did in 1980, when we made our 1st budget). I recently got laid off after 32 yrs service, but 6 wks shy of retirement, so paying $10k/yr taxes is a challenge. I also drive a 27 yr old - $35.00 car that gets 50 mpg on used fryer grease. Probably not the SUV driving, rich person you must envision, (I buy my tires at the junk yard...$5.00) Life is a process, lots to learn, I found that out when I got full responsibility of my disabled dad at age 18, as my mom hit the road... That gave me a 32 yr detour in life, but... not to fear, life is not fair, it just comes, ... and goes. It'll be over soon enough.

My only hope would have been for California to have capped the home equity $$ that they allowed to flow out since the 1960's. It ruined values in Colo, Wyo, Mont, Id, OR, Nev, Az, and NM. Yes, a crying shame, all I also desired was a dry place to hang my hat. (thus, I must have commercial props that provide income to feed my tax assessor). I learned that as a lowly sheetmetal apprentice, from a coworker who was getting $3,000/month from rent on his California business building. (in 1970).

Have fun and enjoy

[woodsong]

I truly have learned so very much from you AND BanteringBear. This forum is amazing and I would recommend it to anyone who was thinking of moving. Really good advice from both of you ... kinda two sides/view points to a story - different perspectives, both of you seem really smart to me. Thanks for the time you have spent ... and for your good wishes. I am very "not sure" now, but it has been an interesting journey since I signed up here and also has me really pondering the earlier advice I had about the area (Port Townsend) ... I guess I am truly a woman of the heart, but a strong willed one also --- I do follow my heart, my brain and my dreams; so .... I will put this now all on the "back burner of my mind, if you will, and enjoy my landscape season here, and see what happens. I have alot of faith in life. Take care and thanks again for your wisdom and energy. woodsong

[gentledental4u]

i love you all for the info that ya'll provide. I, too, am looking to live in Washington and appreciate both sides of the story.

[Ultrarunner]

Eventually prices reach equilibrium, at least that is what the economists say.

Janb, I would be interested in your opinion of Washington property tax. I read that Washington passed a property tax cap similar to California's Prop 13 and that it was thrown out in court.

I would love to live in Washington, but I don't want to move to a state where the possibility of ever increasing property tax forces me out.

[Symi81]

Bear, you're entitled to your opinion and I respect it, however I'll stick with mine. I must say I really dont appreciate your arrogant & condescending tone and complete lack of respect; it makes you sound like a jerk. Time will tell who's analysis comes to fruition.

[BanteringBear]

Symi. I really don't care what you think of me. I am a no nonsense, straightforward, tell it like it is kind of guy. And, when people come seeking honest, reliable information in a forum such as this, I believe they deserve nothing but that. This is not about opinions, but FACTS. When people like you make reckless comments such as "The market conditions in the Puget Sound area are nothing like they are in "bubble" area you mentioned. Washington was a little later to the reconomic recovery party, and consaquently there was less speculation & "flipping" here than in other regions." it does a disservice to all who seek the truth. If you want to debate the real estate issue in private, I would be happy to oblige. But facts are what I stick to, not opinions. And, furthermore, you talk about respect and then throw around words like "jerk". You may want to practice what you preach.