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TWC had an interesting BBC news report on about how it seems to some scientists that the jet stream appears to be getting stuck, almost permanently for weeks on end, more frequently. This results in persistent cold in some places, wet in others, and very warm again in still other places. These patterns seem to go on for weeks and weeks according to the report. One scientist in the report theorizes that this will happen more frequently with each passing year.
If so, I can only hope that the next winter with a stuck pattern has the cold over Europe or Asia instead of us again.
Did this always happen, or is this a new phenomenon. Anyone have any thoughts?
I don't buy it. What is the difference between now, and when we had long duration Arctic cold blasts during the winters of the 60's and 70's or months of searing heat during the Dust Bowl years of the 30's or during the mini Dust Bowl of 1950's? Patterns sometimes get stuck. Sometimes they are very progressive. It depends on the oceans.
I think it was quite interesting. Since I've kept weather records I've definitely noticed that we get stuck into certain weather patterns for a long time. November - January 2010-11 cold snap, July-July 2007 floods, December - February 2013/14 floods and storms, and other examples. The persistent colder than average weather from January - June 2013.
When I look at weather records from the past I notice that there was a lot more variation in our temperatures in a typical month, that does not happen today very much.
There have been notable long warm anomalies and cold anomalies, as well as very wet periods, in the last 5-8 years that would normally be spread out over many decades. It is unusual. I don't think it's "climate change" but some kind of variation perhaps, but not something we've really seen this often since our records began.
There have been notable long warm anomalies and cold anomalies, as well as very wet periods, in the last 5-8 years that would normally be spread out over many decades. It is unusual. I don't think it's "climate change" but some kind of variation perhaps, but not something we've really seen this often since our records began.
My thoughts entirely. I know we only cover a very small portion of the globe, but this country has got weather records going back further than anywhere else, and while we've certainly always had fluke months and fluke years before, I'm not aware of as many different kinds of long-lasting anomalous weather patterns coming within such a small period of time as what we've had since about 2006. I'm sure a statistician would be able to create some kind of measure of climate 'randomness'.
One of the Met Office’s most senior experts yesterday made a dramatic intervention in the climate change debate by insisting there is no link between the storms that have battered Britain and global warming.
Mat Collins, a Professor in climate systems at Exeter University, said the storms have been driven by the jet stream – the high-speed current of air that girdles the globe – which has been ‘stuck’ further south than usual.
Professor Collins told The Mail on Sunday: ‘There is no evidence that global warming can cause the jet stream to get stuck in the way it has this winter. If this is due to climate change, it is outside our knowledge.’
His statement carries particular significance because he is an internationally acknowledged expert on climate computer models and forecasts, and his university post is jointly funded by the Met Office.
Prof Collins is also a senior adviser – a ‘co-ordinating lead author’ – for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). His statement appears to contradict Met Office chief scientist Dame Julia Slingo.
Last weekend, she said ‘all the evidence suggests that climate change has a role to play’ in the storms. Prof Collins made clear that he believes it is likely global warming could lead to higher rainfall totals, because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water. But he said this has nothing to do with the storm conveyor belt.
He said that when the IPCC was compiling its Fifth Assessment Report on climate change last year, it discussed whether warming might affect the jet stream. But, he went on, ‘there was very low confidence that climate change has any effect on the jet stream getting stuck’. In the end, the possibility was not even mentioned in the report
Want to see a stuck weather pattern? How about a 240-year-long drought in California and the western US that started in the year 850 and, 50 years after the conclusion of that one, another that stretched at least 180 years.
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 02-16-2014 at 02:46 PM..
There's a difference between such long timescales and what the report was talking about. When weather patterns change for 200 years they don't have so much of an impact because people and ecosystems can get used to the new normal. If weather patterns can get stuck for months and mean somewhere ends up with the wettest autumn in 100 years one year, then the mildest winter, driest spring, hottest summer etc, then it's more noticeable and has more potential to catch us out.
Stuck weather patterns are nothing new. I remember some doozies - like the big drought of '88 in the Midwest and the late April/May heatwave of 1962, and the frigid eastern Great Lakes/balmy Upper Mississippi Valley of January, I think, 1973 or maybe was it '74?. Repeated polar intrusions are not stuck patterns, just repeated things...there is a difference. Things actually move in repeated patterns; systems stay in place in a stuck pattern which is rare - and not the case lately.
Nothing too stuck about the weather patterns these days. But newspeople need to whip up something to report on or face the unemployment line. Most viewers don't know the difference.
Stuck weather patterns are nothing new. I remember some doozies - like the big drought of '88 in the Midwest and the late April/May heatwave of 1962, and the frigid eastern Great Lakes/balmy Upper Mississippi Valley of January, I think, 1973 or maybe was it '74?. Repeated polar intrusions are not stuck patterns, just repeated things...there is a difference. Things actually move in repeated patterns; systems stay in place in a stuck pattern which is rare - and not the case lately.
Nothing too stuck about the weather patterns these days. But newspeople need to whip up something to report on or face the unemployment line. Most viewers don't know the difference.
FYI, it was scientists claiming this stuck phenom, not "newspeople". The journalists were just reporting on the science meeting.
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