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Old 11-14-2011, 03:52 AM
 
Location: Melbourne AU
55 posts, read 57,628 times
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We have an autumn thread for the northerners... but we have a strong contingent of Aussies and NZers representing the southern hemisphere!

Another La Nina developing this season. So far it has been an active storm season in Melbourne and Victoria in general. The southern plains of NSW and also the NE of the state have seen heavy thunderstorm activity. A number of Supercells have been observed both in Vic and NSW, including in Melbourne on Nov 9 which dropped large hail and caused damage to houses and uprooted trees. Tornadoes were observed this month in Bombala, NSW and near Albury-Wodonga in Victoria which destroyed a handful of houses.

Melbourne has seen 7 storm days since late September, including 3 in the last week. On Nov 9 a Supercell struck the southeast suburbs dropping large hail and very heavy rain causing flooding and property damage.

Storms are almost a daily fixture in the inland tropics of the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Meanwhile in Sydney and Adelaide, heat is the theme, with inland parts of Sydney averaging a high over 29C / 84F so far this month including two days over 37C in the inland suburbs. Adelaide has had 6 days over 30C so far this month.
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Old 11-14-2011, 04:24 AM
 
Location: Perth, Western Australia
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^^ SW Western Australia is having our wettest Spring in 12 years.
Farmers are complaining because they have crops rotting in their paddocks (fields )

For Bunbury/Australind,
I've only seen 2-3 days at 30+ C/86+ F and maybe 10 days at 26+C/78+ F.

I think I've seen 8-10 days with rain so far this November; average for the whole month is 3-4 days.

So far November feels cloudier than August or September did;
an unusual pattern for a southern hemisphere Mediterranean climate.

I hear a lot of people here wishing summer would hurry up.

Instead,
we have daytime highs that are "a bit cool" to "a bit warm"
evenings (8-10pm) that range from "cool" to "coldish"
but not having Daylight Savings Time with sunrise around 5am
means by 7am, it's usually not cold.

Our winter had some severe storms,
but so far our Spring has been rather benign.
A bit of lightning and strong winds
and bursts of short-lived heavy downpours
mixed in with our more typical "Spring-drizzle"
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Old 11-14-2011, 04:46 AM
 
Location: Buxton, England
7,032 posts, read 8,377,499 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilstar View Post
We have an autumn thread for the northerners... but we have a strong contingent of Aussies and NZers representing the southern hemisphere!



Melbourne has seen 7 storm days since late September, including 3 in the last week. On Nov 9 a Supercell struck the southeast suburbs dropping large hail and very heavy rain causing flooding and property damage.

Storms are almost a daily fixture in the inland tropics of the Northern Territory and Queensland.
You think that's a lot?

I was looking through some data for English weather stations online, and found this:

CLIMATE Lakenheath Royal Air Force Base - Historical April 1998 - Weather

Hard to believe there were really 10 thunderstorm days in spring, in such a cold month, and in the UK. LOL.

This is a place that probably averages fewer annual thunderstorm days than Melbourne (I think).

Here we generally do better with thunderstorm frequency when there is a strong El Nino, and barely get any at all in any kind of La Nina situation. I actually found a very good correlation between reported thunderstorm days and La Nina/El Nino occurrences and it seemed to support this.

Last edited by Weatherfan2; 11-14-2011 at 04:56 AM..
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Old 11-14-2011, 07:31 AM
 
Location: Melbourne AU
55 posts, read 57,628 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weatherfan2 View Post
You think that's a lot?

I was looking through some data for English weather stations online, and found this:

CLIMATE Lakenheath Royal Air Force Base - Historical April 1998 - Weather

Hard to believe there were really 10 thunderstorm days in spring, in such a cold month, and in the UK. LOL.

This is a place that probably averages fewer annual thunderstorm days than Melbourne (I think).

Here we generally do better with thunderstorm frequency when there is a strong El Nino, and barely get any at all in any kind of La Nina situation. I actually found a very good correlation between reported thunderstorm days and La Nina/El Nino occurrences and it seemed to support this.
Is that the "TS" column? If so, that's a fair effort, especially considering the temps. Here, there is always a consensus that it has to be as hot as possible with clear skies to fuel storms. Almost all storms here occur in spring and summer during warmer days, they are rarely seen in winter. Winter storms, or "coldies" tend to drop large amounts of hail with minimal thunder/lightning, but in summer large hail is a threat and lightning displays are immense. Sept 28, Nov 8, Nov 9 and this past Sunday night were intense. Nov 9 was a off the scale. Huge Supercell complex riding a cold front, massive black core on the radar, the sky literally turned black and the constant strobing lighting increasing in intensity as it approached. You could feel the wind turn from a warm humid northerly to a cool outflow from the storm in an instant. Then, golf balls started pelting down....


Interesting to note thunder observed in that location in those temps. Was there clear sky and a trough or cold front to aid forcing? How intense were the storms?
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Old 11-14-2011, 07:38 AM
 
Location: Buxton, England
7,032 posts, read 8,377,499 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilstar View Post
Is that the "TS" column? If so, that's a fair effort, especially considering the temps. Here, there is always a consensus that it has to be as hot as possible with clear skies to fuel storms. Almost all storms here occur in spring and summer during warmer days, they are rarely seen in winter. Winter storms, or "coldies" tend to drop large amounts of hail with minimal thunder/lightning, but in summer large hail is a threat and lightning displays are immense. Sept 28, Nov 8, Nov 9 and this past Sunday night were intense. Nov 9 was a off the scale. Huge Supercell complex riding a cold front, massive black core on the radar, the sky literally turned black and the constant strobing lighting increasing in intensity as it approached. You could feel the wind turn from a warm humid northerly to a cool outflow from the storm in an instant. Then, golf balls started pelting down....


Interesting to note thunder observed in that location in those temps. Was there clear sky and a trough or cold front to aid forcing? How intense were the storms?
Yes, and if you click on the plus sign on the right of each day it lists occurrences.

These thunderstorms occurred in an unstable polar maritime airmass (from the North West) with very cold upper temperatures (-30 at the 500hpa level for example) and strong solar radiation. I guess the month was frequented by shallow troughs stalled over the country, providing these conditions and the lifting mechanism.

I lived in Berkshire during that month and remember mostly blue skies with showers and thunderstorms going past literally one after the other all day long.

April 2008 was a lot like that too. Lots of thunderstorms in central and southern parts of England, and colder than usual weather. There was even thundersnow in the south on the 6th! A storm in Lincolnshire dropped golf ball sized hail stones on 11th.

It's one of my favorite spring synoptic set ups in this country, even though it is cold. It can provide some impressive hail storms and thunder.

Interestingly the first "academic" study of a mesocyclonic thunderstorm was based on a thunderstorm in Berkshire, for which the term "supercell" was coined.
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Old 11-14-2011, 07:48 AM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,198 posts, read 22,382,957 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weatherfan2 View Post
You think that's a lot?

I was looking through some data for English weather stations online, and found this:

CLIMATE Lakenheath Royal Air Force Base - Historical April 1998 - Weather

Hard to believe there were really 10 thunderstorm days in spring, in such a cold month, and in the UK. LOL.

This is a place that probably averages fewer annual thunderstorm days than Melbourne (I think).

Here we generally do better with thunderstorm frequency when there is a strong El Nino, and barely get any at all in any kind of La Nina situation. I actually found a very good correlation between reported thunderstorm days and La Nina/El Nino occurrences and it seemed to support this.
August 2004 was the bees knees for thunderstorms for this area

CLIMATE Leeds And Bradford - Historical August 2004 - Weather

Oh how I miss the thunderstorms of the early 2000's..
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Old 11-14-2011, 07:49 AM
 
Location: Buenos Aires, Argentina
5,901 posts, read 7,950,044 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilstar View Post
We have an autumn thread for the northerners... but we have a strong contingent of Aussies and NZers representing the southern hemisphere!

.

Hey, dont forget Southamericans Im from Argentina and not the only argentinian posting around here. Plus, i think i read some Brazilians.


Our spring have been beautiful. October/November have been insanely sunny, with highs in the high 70s/low 80s, and lows in the 60s. What i call "spring". Like i always say, i LOVE first half of november weather and dont like the second half. We are about to start the second half so hot days can be appearing anytime soon. If it was for me, i would have take this first days of november weather (wich would be around low 20- high 26) as summer weather.

If i had to guess i will say november have been sunnier than usual? But im not sure, maybe the spring is always as sunny. I remember reading that it rains a lot in november here, and it rained here once in 1 month and a half though, very "unrainy" this spring have been i must say.
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Old 11-14-2011, 07:53 AM
 
Location: Buxton, England
7,032 posts, read 8,377,499 times
Reputation: 3529
Quote:
Originally Posted by dunno what to put here View Post
August 2004 was the bees knees for thunderstorms for this area

CLIMATE Leeds And Bradford - Historical August 2004 - Weather

Oh how I miss the thunderstorms of the early 2000's..
Or, we could go back to the early 80's when there was an unusual surge in thunder activity.

CLIMATE Marham - Historical June 1982 - Weather

CLIMATE Orlando, Orlando International Airport - Historical June 1982 - Weather

Looks like good old blighty scuppered Florida that month...hahaha
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Old 11-14-2011, 08:12 PM
 
Location: Newcastle NSW Australia
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November so far has been well above average, after a below average October in central coastal areas of NSW.
It seems to have gone from winter to summer with minimal transition period this year.
Yesterday, Newcastle coastal had 34C while inland suburbs where I live had 36C. There has been minimal rain so far in November.
Where I work in Singleton in the Hunter Valley, the private property also has the official weather station with the Enviromental Engineer in control, here are this month's readings, which are not on the BOM:

Singleton daily temperature and rain summaries

PS - You can only look at past 3 months data on Weatherzone, or otherwise you need to sign up and pay for membership.
PSS- There is only 2002-08 data here, and the record was broken in November record was broken in 2009 at 45.2C - and I was unfortunately there for it!

Last edited by Derek40; 11-14-2011 at 08:22 PM.. Reason: extra
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Old 11-14-2011, 09:35 PM
 
500 posts, read 757,387 times
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Spring is feeling similar to last year's, so the predictions of another wet summer for eastern Australia seems right.
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