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Old 11-24-2011, 10:49 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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Though the local NWS station was offline for four days, this month is only running 2 F above average. Nothing exceptional about it.

Edit: I should probably take that back. Two of the days not included were around 70 F.

Last edited by ilovemycomputer90; 11-24-2011 at 11:00 PM..
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Old 11-24-2011, 10:50 PM
 
Location: IN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asbereth View Post
November has been unbelievably warm. Not that I'm complaining or anything, but I would much rather that we can save some of the warmth for spring I got a feeling that, whenever we got warm autumn, early spring would be cold
You wouldn't like the GFS model the past few days. December looks to be turning substantially colder with more of a nw flow if the models are to be believed. I'll give it a few more days to see if the positive PNA pattern and east Pac ridging looks to have consistency.
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Old 11-25-2011, 12:12 PM
 
Location: IN
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The placement of that East Pac ridge is very important to where the cold air downstream goes. The Pacific pattern has been very active as is characteristic of a La Nina event. However, the positive PNA looks to slow down this storm parade a bit. I am worried that the ridge in the southeast could cause trouble down the road as the temperature gradients become even greater from north to south.
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Old 11-26-2011, 12:27 PM
 
Location: IN
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This pattern change is just taking much too long. Even after next weekend temps don't look much below average at all. Oh well. I am not holding out too much hope for decent snow and cold on a consistent basis this winter east of the Rockies.
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Old 11-26-2011, 12:29 PM
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Location: New York / Long Island, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
This pattern change is just taking much too long. Even after next weekend temps don't look much below average at all. Oh well. I am not holding out too much hope for decent snow and cold on a consistent basis this winter east of the Rockies.
What links are you using to figure this out?
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Old 11-26-2011, 02:18 PM
 
Location: IN
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Originally Posted by nei View Post
What links are you using to figure this out?
The GFS computer model found on the NCEP operations homepage. The GFS model comes out 4 times a day and I mainly look at the 500mb thickness charts to gauge temperature trends in the medium and longer range.
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Old 11-26-2011, 02:43 PM
 
Location: Golden, CO
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A one-day cold front has kept us in the 30s most of the day, but looks like 60s again until Thursday where it will be snowy.
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Old 11-26-2011, 03:35 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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Oh well. We go many years without seeing a real snowfall until Christmas or even afterwards. The forecast for late next week looks close to average.
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Old 11-26-2011, 03:42 PM
 
Location: Toronto
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It's been a real mild/warm couple of days here. Yesterday's high/low was 16C/6C (61F/42F) and the overnight low for today was 9C (48F).

It's 13C/55F now and the overnight low for tomorrow is expected to be in the low 50s F. That's more like the middle of fall than the end of it. The average for this time of year is 5/-2C (41F/28F).

But it's just this mild weekend. Next week's forecast is going to be more seasonal -- back into the 40s and 30s F.
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Old 11-26-2011, 07:44 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
That is true and the southeast ridge always seems to want to rebuild quickly.
The next few days of model runs will be a good indication of where the overall pattern is headed...
You took the words right out of my mouth!

Never underestimate the ability of that subtropical high east of the Bahamas to show its power at any time of year.

I would wait at least until next week to see where the models go...
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