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Unread 11-29-2011, 08:31 PM
Status: "Can I pack away my winter coat now?" (set 6 days ago)
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
22,440 posts, read 9,625,589 times
Reputation: 6679
Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
I think December will likely be warmer than average for the East Coast but obviously much colder than the current month of November. Check the AO as it is forecasted to be 4 standard deviations above the average. The ridge of high pressure in the west is the only thing going right now for those that want some colder air down the road. If the PNA was still in negative territory it would be a continuation of blowtorching on the East Coast indefinitely.
is the AO index a deviation? Do you know how it's calculated?
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Unread 11-30-2011, 07:53 AM
 
Location: Waterloo, ON
186 posts, read 118,749 times
Reputation: 130
November 'blowtorch' here apparently means high 30s to mid 40s daily high (while it was like in the 60s for the Northeast), which is like an average December weather for places like NYC and Philadelphia. Warm for this time of the year, so can't complain, but still
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Unread 11-30-2011, 11:22 AM
Status: "32F outside; feels like Spring" (set 28 days ago)
 
Location: 77 Square Miles Surrounded By Reality
14,779 posts, read 18,622,512 times
Reputation: 7310
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
is the AO index a deviation? Do you know how it's calculated?
It is calculated by averaging the sum deviation of all model solutions that are generated.
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Unread 11-30-2011, 02:25 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,444 posts, read 3,856,808 times
Reputation: 1864
Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
I think December will likely be warmer than average for the East Coast but obviously much colder than the current month of November. Check the AO as it is forecasted to be 4 standard deviations above the average. The ridge of high pressure in the west is the only thing going right now for those that want some colder air down the road. If the PNA was still in negative territory it would be a continuation of blowtorching on the East Coast indefinitely.


Regionally, I think we’ll see an old fashioned “normal “winter across the USA mainland for a change (lol). Winter 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 were really high amplitude. That will likley not happen again this winter season. Meaning that there will be some deep cold shots and typical heavy snow in the Northern tier (Mt. West to New England)… the central part of the country (37 – 41 latitude) will see cool than warm fronts and fleeting/little snow…and the southern tier from southern California to South Carolina will see generally warm temps and few bouts of true cold. Florida will see typical seasonal temps.
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Unread 11-30-2011, 02:58 PM
Status: "Can I pack away my winter coat now?" (set 6 days ago)
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
22,440 posts, read 9,625,589 times
Reputation: 6679
From what it's worth, the only recent November as mild as this one was Nov 2009. The winter 2009-2010 came out as above average, with a mild February and cold December. Was also a bit drier than usual, with noticeably less snow (more precipitation came as rain than usual), though I think there were a couple decent snowstorms.

I remember hiking up a mountain in Vermont in the middle of February was impressed at how snowless the landscape was. The snow on the lower half of the mountain was melting fast.
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Unread 11-30-2011, 03:56 PM
 
Location: Waterloo, ON
186 posts, read 118,749 times
Reputation: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
From what it's worth, the only recent November as mild as this one was Nov 2009. The winter 2009-2010 came out as above average, with a mild February and cold December. Was also a bit drier than usual, with noticeably less snow (more precipitation came as rain than usual), though I think there were a couple decent snowstorms.
Winter 2009/10 (and spring 2010) was awesome! Here in Southern Ontario, December was seasonal temperature wise (though much less snow-wise), but the rest of the season was warmer than average. Spring came really early, and May '10 averaged close to 70 degrees for daily high (much warmer than normal for this part of the world)!!
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Unread 12-01-2011, 12:03 PM
Status: "32F outside; feels like Spring" (set 28 days ago)
 
Location: 77 Square Miles Surrounded By Reality
14,779 posts, read 18,622,512 times
Reputation: 7310
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cpc/cpc_NAM_f264wbg.gif
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Unread 12-01-2011, 03:18 PM
 
Location: new york suburbs
161 posts, read 97,126 times
Reputation: 102
Most of the U.S., particularly the East, had above average temperatures in November. And many places broke or come close to breaking record high temps.

Here's an article discussing the warmth: November 2011 a Top Ten Warmest for Some Cities - weather.com
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Unread 12-01-2011, 11:46 PM
 
4,626 posts, read 3,896,001 times
Reputation: 2288
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
@Thepastpresentandfuture

that's a strange combination! It's way too warm for it to snow in the next few days. As I found out in another thread, it's colder in Houston than here.
I agree! That is a strange weather pattern combination to happen.

Two nights ago, Eastern Massachusetts was decisively much warmer than Northern Florida. It was 63 degrees in Boston at Midnight to 3:50 am and only 36 degrees in Tallahassee Florida.

It is difficult to say if the way above average temperatures pattern will continue in the Northeast for December to April, or if it was just a November thing. For what happened with record snow and cold in Late October, it seems like that might come back at least once by March.

Maybe January will have record warmth, and record cold/snow for different times in the same month.

However, the second it became December it is already becoming much more noticeably colder than just a few days ago in the last days of November.
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Unread 12-02-2011, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Brooklyn,NY
1,961 posts, read 1,754,269 times
Reputation: 1093
It's going to come to an end in the east this time next week.
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