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Old 11-14-2011, 09:24 AM
 
Location: Madison, WI
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Post November Blowtorch pattern continues

It is just unbelievable. Lows are in the 50s all the way north to New Hampshire last night. When will the eastern ridge and blocking in Europe disappear to allow for a colder pattern in the East. Will the PNA stay locked in its negative phase with a persistent western trough? No evidence to support a negative phase of the NAO or AO anytime soon. For a La Nina Fall leading into Winter this is just very strange.
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Old 11-14-2011, 09:28 AM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
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The blocking in Europe right now is also causing mild nights here in the UK and a serious lack of snow in Scandinavia, but the block is predicted to move east.. so we'll see what happens soon.
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Old 11-14-2011, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Madison, WI
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dunno what to put here View Post
The blocking in Europe right now is also causing mild nights here in the UK and a serious lack of snow in Scandinavia, but the block is predicted to move east.. so we'll see what happens soon.
It's still the transition season so the GFS has issues in the longer range in general. However, the block dissipating in strength is a positive signal.
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Old 11-14-2011, 09:51 AM
 
Location: New York City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
It is just unbelievable. Lows are in the 50s all the way north to New Hampshire last night. When will the eastern ridge and blocking in Europe disappear to allow for a colder pattern in the East. Will the PNA stay locked in its negative phase with a persistent western trough? No evidence to support a negative phase of the NAO or AO anytime soon. For a La Nina Fall leading into Winter this is just very strange.
Interesting. Yeah this fall has been kinda crazy with the snow and now the unseasonable warmth.

You don't post here as much as you used to, GS
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Old 11-14-2011, 10:39 AM
 
Location: new york suburbs
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Yeah, in the last three months here in the Northeast, we've had an earthquake, hurricane, and blizzard. The first two were fairly unprecedented in this region, and the third one was unheard of in October.
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Old 11-14-2011, 10:57 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Didnt we have a similar blocking in Europe in summer of 2010 where the U.S was torched and had a record year of Heat that summer?
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Old 11-14-2011, 10:58 AM
 
Location: Madison, WI
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The 12Z GFS model run just came out and it shows a continuation of the blowtorch pattern in the East minus a few occasional cold fronts that drop the temperatures back to average, especially in the inteiror regions.
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Old 11-14-2011, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Madison, WI
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Didnt we have a similar blocking in Europe in summer of 2010 where the U.S was torched and had a record year of Heat that summer?
2010 was one of the warmest years globally since records have been kept. Also, the 1981-2010 averages are being used so the new averages are warmer.
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Old 11-14-2011, 12:28 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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What was it last November? I would have assumed there'll be a reversal in the pattern within the next several weeks (late November or sometime in December). Is that not the case now? IIRC, the best chances for cold were predicted to be in December and January. Better to have a blowtorch now than during the winter.

Though the weather has been a bit wacky lately, there still has been several seasonal days.
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Old 11-14-2011, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Miami, FL
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I wouldn't consider this November to be "Blowtorch", there have been several cold days in the Northeast for the first 10 days of November, and there looks to be a pattern change next week, with highs in the teens and 20s across the upper midwest.
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