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What does it mean when the AO is forecasted to remain strongly negative but the NAO stays positive? Isn't that an odd combination since they tend to move somewhat similarly.
More cold outbreaks in the East with a negative AO but does not stay put because there's a Positiuve NAO (no blocking). Also watch that PNA. When the PNA goes positive it means ridge in West and trough building in East.
Lets use this upcoming possible snowtorm for an example. Last update has the storm surpressed to the south but ... without blocking,
The speed of the storms is faster West to East so it doesnt have time to sit and develop into a coastal bomb. Sure we can get snow from this. Last nights models had the track north more bringing snow to NorthEast but dont expect a full fledge blizzard until that NAO tanks into negative.
I would say winter has been officially canceled for most of the Southeast since it never got underway in the first place. Yes, they do get winter there as Boone, NC at 3,000ft elevation received over 50 inches of snow last winter. This year? Hardly anything. The ridge in the Atlantic has been an unbelievably strong player given the time of the year.
I would say winter has been officially canceled for most of the Southeast since it never got underway in the first place. Yes, they do get winter there as Boone, NC at 3,000ft elevation received over 50 inches of snow last winter. This year? Hardly anything. The ridge in the Atlantic has been an unbelievably strong player given the time of the year.
Weather likes to test or keep the mind sharp. One thing I remember is a High pressure over Russia Summer of 2010 that didnt budge and was so persistant in providing heat and fires it was a crazy summer for them. Similar situation here with this ridge thats stuck over the southEast for months on end now.
Here's Wednesday's temps...look how far up the 70s come. LOL
Superbowl Weekend Storm
The system is still over Tokyo. Once it gets to near Alaska models will have better handle on it.
Weather likes to test or keep the mind sharp. One thing I remember is a High pressure over Russia Summer of 2010 that didnt budge and was so persistant in providing heat and fires it was a crazy summer for them. Similar situation here with this ridge thats stuck over the southEast for months on end now.
Here's Wednesday's temps...look how far up the 70s come. LOL
Superbowl Weekend Storm
The system is still over Tokyo. Once it gets to near Alaska models will have better handle on it.
Your analogy is a good one as that Southeast ridge is a highly unusual feature during the winter months, mainly due to its persistence. Those high temps in the western Carolinas are 20-25+ degrees above average like Boone. Google the climate of Boone as it is very interesting.
Well, Both the GFS and Euro now show a storm coming from Mid West, into Ohio valley, transfering its energy into a coastal low that forms and moves up the coast.
Latest Euro has a significant snowstorm (12"+ for MA, southern VT, NH, ME and arts of NY) Northern CT 6-9", and coastal areas would see 3-6".
We shouldnt be talking about totals just yet. lets see how the models handle the entire event first.
One other nugget to know.... Hurricane hunters are flying into the system to put data into the 12z runs...they usually do it just for the 00z runs. Either way... something is brewing.
Euro Left. GFS Right.
Euro12z Snow total.
And if your wondering why is there a coastal Low if NAO is positive.... well..Euro new data says differently...NAO goes negative for the time frame hence why its showing a coastal low moving up. Should move faster then if the NAO was deeply negative though
Yesterday (Friday) had a high of 59°F; 48°F at 8 pm (in NYC central park); definitely did not feel like winter. Only about 51°F yesterday.
Exactly. It felt like Halloween time.
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