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That is just absurd, and the only way anyone can fall for it is the vague undefined words used. There are all kinds of different snow scenarios, as we have already read. But the basic idea that somehow warmer equates with more snow, rather than less snow, is the annoying thing. It's just not true. There it is. What does "higher temperatures" even mean? Higher than 32F? Higher than 5C? How much above freezing does it have to be to make it easier to snow?[/quote]
All of us have been become talking about below freezing temperatures. Warmer say in the mid to upper 20s than say 10°F
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I mentioned right away this is not about the polar regions, especially not the polar desert of Antarctica. I'm talking about the actual real world, where the data shows that an area that has higher than average cold season temperatures, there is less snow. And in the real world, when it's much colder than average, there is more snow.
The data does not show that if the higher than average cold season temperatute is below freezing. The last sentence is just false. For example, my snowiest recent year was about average not below average.
That's another misconception. For a lot of the arctic the amount of water is low, but the snow depth can be very high. It used to be said that Chicago got more snow than Barrow Alaska, but it's not true anymore. In fact, in the last 15 years Barrow has had 860 inches, while Chicago comes in at 641 inches (both are above the average).
But, the water equivalent for Barrow is way lower than Chicago, because like most snow that falls where it's very cold, it's powder, or even ice crystals (freezing fog).
This is an important part of the misconception.
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Originally Posted by nei
All of us have been become talking about below freezing temperatures. Warmer say in the mid to upper 20s than say 10°F
I understand, but that is not the misconception.
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Originally Posted by nei
The data does not show that if the higher than average cold season temperatute is below freezing. The last sentence is just false. For example, my snowiest recent year was about average not below average.
I'm not clear on what you are actually saying, but I am quite clear about what I am saying.
The myth that it snow MORE when it's warmer is absurd, just as saying it snows less where it's colder is also absurd. Anybody who has actually been up a mountain during snow knows the higher up you go, the colder it gets, and the more snow there is. It can be raining at sea level, but snowing on the mountain, because it's COLDER up higher. (yes, there is also another factor, but that isn't what the claim is about)
Of course "warmer" and "colder" are not scientific terms, but the general rule still holds true. Colder equates with more snow, warmer with less, no matter how you slice and dice the terms. (This is about regions with variability in snow, not areas near the poles)
This means of course, it is about where most people actually live, not the polar regions in winter, where once it gets very very cold and the oceans are covered with solid ice, obviously snow will be less. It's why I said the polar regions are not what the claim is about.
They are talking about Chicago or Boston or the Ohio valley, somewhere that many people inhabit. In essence, for some reason, the claim is being made that heavy snow is connected to warmer temperatures, which is just not how it works. Once again, anyone familiar with mountains knows this is nonsense. The colder it is, the more snow and less rain.
Why would anyone try to tell us otherwise?
Looking at the snow anomalies, comparing them with the temperature anomalies, there is an almost exact match between snow and temperature. And it is of course cold = snow, not the other way around.
In fact, if any data did show warmer than average = more snow, something would be seriously wrong. But, and this is where it gets complicated, this isn't true for every last location on the planet, nor every season. The polar regions of course are different, but that isn't what the claim is about, the people saying "warmer means more snow" are talking about winters in the mid-latitudes, where snow is quite variable.
Which is why it's so annoying. It just isn't true for the places most people live. For almost every location, a below average month will have more snow, and an above average month will have less snow. It can't work the other way around, and the data clearly shows this is how the world actually works.
The claim arose for areas that can have either little snow, or huge amounts. It is not about high latitude regions or polar deserts.
Unlike some things, this one is actually pretty easy to know, because we have really good data for both snow and temperature, even the ability to look at vast regions at a time. What complicates the matter, is the difference between snowfall and snow extent, or snow coverage. But even with the issue of snow depth, warmer is going to be connected to less snow depth, as snow melts faster when it's warmer, and does not melt if it's below freezing. But then there is the rain situation, but again, if it's warm enough to rain rather than snow, it will speed up snow melt, so once again, warmer conditions tend to have less snow stay around.
The far more interesting matter is "why" anyone would try and claim "as it gets warmer there will be more snow", which is the exact opposite of what reality shows. While this is likely the actual case for polar regions, due to the physics of more open water and less sea ice, and probably true for lake effect snow in certain regions, it's not true for areas where the main deciding factor between rain or snow is the temperature of the air.
Just as we see with storms coming in from the ocean, with mountains, it snows where it is colder. And rains where it is warmer. To try and say it snows more where it's warmer is absurd. It snows more where it's colder.
It's obviously the case for places where the deciding factor is between rain or snow, that phrase you're disputing is describing conditions colder that. You keep talk about above freezing; much of the interior of the Northeast averages wel below freezing. As I already said, the snowiest winter here in the last 25 years wasn't below average. You've completely misinterpreted a phrase and then misapplied it to conditions too warm and called it a misconception
Having grown up on the Canadian prairies I can say this is definitely true over there - you're much more likely to experience snowfall at -5C or -10C than at -25C.
That's because of how the weather behaves there. After a front comes through, the temperature continues to drop, and there is no longer a front to cause snow. So very cold temperatures are associated with clear dry air.
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Originally Posted by nei
Huh? You lost me there. Why should a warmer than average winter lead to less snow if it's still below freezing?
Because the areas people are talking about (with the misconception) do not usually have nothing but below freezing temperatures all winter. That would be both horrific and in areas like that certainly snow would be associated with a warm front moving in, or a storm coming through, where temperatures would be higher.
Even when the mean is below freezing, it's not always that cold.
Once more, this is about areas that have variable weather. Where snow can be heavy, or almost nothing. Somehow this idea that the times of heavy snow are equated with warmer temperatures is being passed around. But it isn't true.
No, the phrase or misconception that you think it is, comes from areas with mostly below freezing winters. Really it refers to a well known pattern that the coldest days of the year tend to be dry and non-snowy. Those are the areas people are talking, for whatever reason you're not
Since I know how hard it is to convince anyone of anything, I will just let the data speak for itself.
Do I need to post the snow records as well? Because most people know it was the most snow ever.
But most people don't know the water amount for the snow was actually quite low, with Boston getting below average precipitation, even as their was record snow amounts.
This directly connects to the powdery snow when it's very cold.
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