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Old 03-22-2012, 09:17 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ben86 View Post
If the US/Canada had these same unique (is it unique?) synoptics in midsummer, what sort of temperatures would you feasibly be getting?
These synoptics are summer synoptics; jet stream well north into Canada. A summer pattern doesn't show as much extreme temperature variation. In New England, heat wave temperatures have trouble breaking 100°F; our record is only a few degrees higher.
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Old 03-22-2012, 09:34 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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I see a forecast for 26°F Monday night

Hope the buds will be ok. High was 82°F today.
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Old 03-22-2012, 10:37 PM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
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March averages/totals to date, above average temperatures, below average rainfall, above average
sunshine

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Old 03-23-2012, 03:09 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
These synoptics are summer synoptics; jet stream well north into Canada. A summer pattern doesn't show as much extreme temperature variation. In New England, heat wave temperatures have trouble breaking 100°F; our record is only a few degrees higher.
That's true, but to have this intense of a heat ridge this far north is somewhat unusual even for summertime. Our temperature variations flatten out over the summertime, so the same pattern produces a lesser departure from normal than it would another time of year. This is much more operable in the south than the north - someplace like Winnipeg has lesser variation but still gets significant variability, whereas someplace like New Orleans or Memphis will get next to none. This is due to the absence of significant cold fronts in these southern areas; although they can get stronger ones in cooler summers, they're still weaker than the potential in the north.

With this extreme of a pattern, with all-time March records being set in multiple locations, I imagine that in summer there would be a huge swath of temperatures of 100 Fahrenheit or higher extending up very far north, with the temperature being about the same in the south as it is in the north (like the 80's F in this heat wave). No location would likely get over 110 F, though. I can only hope such a horrific scenario does not come to pass.
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Old 03-23-2012, 05:24 AM
 
Location: Columbus, Ohio
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Now that this silly heat wave is thankfully over, the local NWS has an article about it. I love the tone!

Quote:
While it is common to talk about extreme weather events, there is usually a comparable weather event in the record books. The same cannot be said about the current warm stretch for its strength, length and timing so early in the spring season. This current extreme weather event truly has never happened in recorded history in Southeast Michigan!

While many residents are enjoying the long period of record warm weather, Southeast Michigan's agricultural interests will be bracing for potentially severe negative impacts. The average last freeze for most locations in Southeast Michigan is not until late April. Over 90% of Aprils for all locations in Southeast Michigan have a hard freeze, a temperature of 28 degrees or lower, sometime during the month.

The growing season has started in Southeast Michigan, about 5 weeks ahead of schedule. Therefore, the NWS Detroit/Pontiac office will start issuing frost advisories and freeze warnings as conditions warrant.
Unprecedented Warm March Weather and the Possible Negative Impacts to Michigan

NWS Chicago has some good statistics Reflecting on the Historic & Unprecedented March Warmth
as well as Milwaukee Record Setting Warmth (Updated 815 pm 3/22)

Now I'm going to be looking through each service in the region to see which one has the best article.
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Old 03-23-2012, 06:08 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
That's true, but to have this intense of a heat ridge this far north is somewhat unusual even for summertime. Our temperature variations flatten out over the summertime, so the same pattern produces a lesser departure from normal than it would another time of year. This is much more operable in the south than the north - someplace like Winnipeg has lesser variation but still gets significant variability, whereas someplace like New Orleans or Memphis will get next to none. This is due to the absence of significant cold fronts in these southern areas; although they can get stronger ones in cooler summers, they're still weaker than the potential in the north.
Hmm. I thought it was a bit of the reverse; that heat waves would have a bigger effect further south. I remember one Lousiana station (Shreveport) recorded a monthly average high of 104 (10°F above normal) last year while in Massachusetts, though it got several days in the high 90s, the average high was 86°F. 87°F; maybe 88°F is the hottest I've seen, at most 5°F. The heat wave doesn't penetrate consistently that far north, so extreme heat waves have less of an effect on averages. However, a better comparison might be the midwest at the same latitude, but at least here, so called hot months don't actually involve huge temperature swings.

Quote:
With this extreme of a pattern, with all-time March records being set in multiple locations, I imagine that in summer there would be a huge swath of temperatures of 100 Fahrenheit or higher extending up very far north, with the temperature being about the same in the south as it is in the north (like the 80's F in this heat wave). No location would likely get over 110 F, though. I can only hope such a horrific scenario does not come to pass.
I, and I think many heat haters should be, am thankful a heat wave happened in March and not in the middle of summer. The ground is starting to get dry here. I'm hoping for above average temperatures till early summer, then cool wet weather in summer so things won't dry out.
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Old 03-23-2012, 07:17 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Hmm. I thought it was a bit of the reverse; that heat waves would have a bigger effect further south. I remember one Lousiana station (Shreveport) recorded a monthly average high of 104 (10°F above normal) last year while in Massachusetts, though it got several days in the high 90s, the average high was 86°F. 87°F; maybe 88°F is the hottest I've seen, at most 5°F.
What I was saying is that the northern regions have larger departures from normal on a day to day basis, i.e. Marquette Michigan may have some days 10 degrees above normal, then a period of 10 degrees below normal, sometimes 15 or 20 above or below normal - this is very common in places like that. Whereas someplace in the south doesn't stray far from the averages at all; they're usually 5 degrees above or below normal, with 10 degrees above or below normal usually happening only a few times in the summer. 20 degrees above or below normal and they would be challenging records.

Of course monthly averages operate a bit differently. 2011 was also an exceptional event (hottest on record or close to it), and even then temperatures never strayed far above or below that 104 average - there is a lot more consistency in weather in the south in any case, and when it's consistently hot (less variability) the monthly average turns out higher than if your weather is more variable, on a daily basis.

The hottest and coolest weather southern locations have is much closer to average than the hottest/coolest in your area or in the Midwest. The average summer maxima in most parts of the South are 100 or a bit above - the hottest they get the whole season is no more than 10 degrees or so above normal. Whereas the hottest a northern location might get is 90 or 95, which would be at least 10 degrees above normal, probably closer to 15 or 20.

This is part of the effect I was referring to - if a large swath of the country (let's say the Eastern U.S.) was covered with just about the most potent heat wave they can get, the temperatures would be quite close together, with only about 10 or 15 degrees difference between a far northern location (let's say 90 in Minnesota) and a far southern location (let's say 100 in Mississippi). This is because Minnesota would have larger departures from normal than Mississippi. There's also the matter of summer air masses and fronts and other atmospheric features usually being much weaker than spring ones, so the rough equivalent in terms of records being broken wouldn't have nearly the same departures from normal as what we're seeing now (20 or 30 above as opposed to 40 above).
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Old 03-23-2012, 07:52 AM
 
Location: Iowa
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We are supposed to be 40 for a daytime average and for days on end we've been above, and areas towards Green Bay, way above. My situation here in TR is unique, but overall 20-30+ above average for days, some place 40 degrees.

Today we are finally getting some rain, very much needed, ground is very dry. Fire warnings up and very rare in March as we usually have snow on the ground, or if not things are still damp to wet. We did not have enough snow to leave moisture in the ground, GB may have higher totals, less than 20" here and 50" would be normal.
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Old 03-23-2012, 02:33 PM
 
Location: Singapore
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I've had 7.08" of precipitation this month so far. Next week looks very wet with high temps in the low 50s/upper 40s.
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Old 03-23-2012, 03:50 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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Even though it's way out of wack, I'm really enjoying this afternoon's weather. Cloudy and in the low 70s. The cloudiness makes it far more enjoyable.

Looking forward to the coming cool down. This weekend is forecasted to be cloudy with showers and highs around 60 F. Next week will feel downright chilly after this warm spell with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Freezing temperatures looking more likely.
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