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Old 05-01-2012, 04:35 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Since there's no Summer 2012 thread I'll post this here. It's from Meteo Steve D so i hope you appreciate it. It's a long discussion which I havent even read fully yet.

Non-Member :: NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 04/30/12
So I got a few emails about whether I will put out a summer forecast.

Apparently the usual suspects put out a cute map and forecast for the summer. Of course, Ive been talking about the summer in these discussions for weeks now, but today Ill summarize my thoughts on this summer.

The summer pattern is going to be influenced by three factors, the stratospheric conditions, the MJO, and the evolution of El Nino. These three factors will enhance the upper level ridge over the Plains and Southeast, lock in a trough over Southeastern Canada, and eventually kill off the hurricane season in August and September.

The stratosphere as you know is VERY cold. Historically cold in fact over the mid latitudes or the United States.

This cold stratospheric conditions enhances 500 MB heights and allows for hot air masses to become significantly enhanced. However, as we look at the stratosphere at the high latitudes, the stratosphere has warmed to near normal levels. At this time of year, the near normal temperatures is similar in influence to above normal temperatures, which when compared to the freezing cold anomalies over the United States, acts like a strong stratospheric warming event over the higher latitudes due to the thermal gradient. As a result, you end up with a negative NAO pattern that is naturally shifted further north.

The next aspect is the MJO which is slowly losing influence on the 500 MB pattern as El Nino slowly starts to take hold of the 500 MB pattern. The MJO is expected to spend a great deal of time in a neutral state this summer, but when the MJO goes into phases 7,8, and 1; thats when the negative NAO pattern shifts further south and the potential for heavy rainfall over the East increases.

As for El Nino this summer. The development of this feature is going to be tricky. There is some major question on orientation of El Nino for later this summer. I simply dont have enough data on defining the orientation of El Nino right now. However, I can say that I expect El Nino to be weak. In fact, given the lack of sea surface thermal gradient and sub surface thermal gradient, this El Nino will likely be one of the weakest weve seen in some time with anomalies barely qualifying.

The weak El Nino pattern will eventually help to enhance the Sub Tropical jet stream, which in turn will limit the potential for hurricanes this season, especially by August.

So to put this all together, I am expecting a ridge to be a dominant feature centered over the Mississippi Valley and at times shifting to the Southeast coast. A trough will be a persistent feature over Southeastern Canada, especially around the Canadian Maritimes with a ridge over northern Greenland. Remember, this whole pattern is shifted north due to the time of year. This will put the northern Mid Atlantic on the northern edge of the heart of the hottest air masses but will also limit the potential for severe weather and lead to long strengths of dry conditions as disturbances collapse while diving from the Great Lakes into the coastal waters of the northern Mid Atlantic.

Basically we are going to lock into the pattern we are going to see this week with a constant battle between the modified Polar air masses over central Canada and the very hot air masses over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. When the MJO goes neutral, watch out for heat waves as the ridge is able to expand to the northeast and the negative NAO starts to give way. When the MJO goes into 7, 8, and 1; thats when disturbances are able to dive and intensify off the East coast and a rain storm is possible. I dont think this pattern configuration is conducive for severe weather outbreaks for the northern Mid Atlantic at all. However, a Mesoscale Convective Complex is possible from time to time.

Later in the summer, the influences of El Nino will start to be felt, but I dont think well see the true pattern influences until September. Still, well note the first key influences with strong shear associated with the Sub Tropical Jet Stream over the Tropics. Frankly, I think the hurricane season will be rather quiet over the Atlantic with the exception of areas in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. As for the northern Mid Atlantic, the evolution of El Nino will eventually allow for deeper troughs to build into the Eastern United States, however the intensify of that trough will be dependent on the state of the stratosphere by August which at this time is still debatable. I expect temperatures to average 1 to 3 degrees above normal with precipitation below normal.
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Old 05-01-2012, 06:42 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
So to put this all together, I am expecting a ridge to be a dominant feature centered over the Mississippi Valley and at times shifting to the Southeast coast.
How typical . Perhaps the "heat ridge of death" will put them out of their misery this time around. For the sake of my kindred in the South, I hope his forecast is wrong.

Cambium, perhaps you should start the Summer 2012 thread. After all it's May 1, the Southeastern U.S. is quite summer-like now (summer there lasts from May through September, at least), and we have a long-range forecast.
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Old 05-01-2012, 06:55 PM
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post

Cambium, perhaps you should start the Summer 2012 thread. After all it's May 1, the Southeastern U.S. is quite summer-like now (summer there lasts from May through September, at least), and we have a long-range forecast.
Looks like it is from a glance at the forecasts. Definitely not summer yet in Long Island:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 41.06N and Longitude 71.94W

Look a the diurnal range forecast tomorrow (4F). Even when the dew points fell into the upper teens the last few nights, Montauk was incapable of dropping below 45F. Has trouble reaching above 80F there (Montauk not Long Island in general) in the summer.
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Old 05-01-2012, 07:04 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
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Light snow and 31F in Fairbanks right now.
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Old 05-01-2012, 07:23 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
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I can one up that. It's currently 28F and clear in Cartwright, NL. Kind of nippy for a May evening . Currently 80's are the rule in Texas. Of those three I know where I'd like to be... (Fairbanks)
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Old 05-01-2012, 08:04 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
24,562 posts, read 13,039,277 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Candle View Post
Light snow and 31F in Fairbanks right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
I can one up that. It's currently 28F and clear in Cartwright, NL. Kind of nippy for a May evening . Currently 80's are the rule in Texas. Of those three I know where I'd like to be... (Fairbanks)
How about here?
18-30 inches of snow next 4 days.

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 46.87N and Longitude 121.75W (Elev. 12330 ft)

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Old 05-02-2012, 06:09 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
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Wow. I believe that's quite cold for the Rainier summit this time of year, though I wouldn't think it's unheard of. But I concede the contest - you win with the Rainier trump card. Let's all go there for the week .
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Old 05-02-2012, 06:37 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
24,562 posts, read 13,039,277 times
Reputation: 4059
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
Wow. I believe that's quite cold for the Rainier summit this time of year, though I wouldn't think it's unheard of. But I concede the contest - you win with the Rainier trump card. Let's all go there for the week .
A week? How about You bring the lumber and I will build. Then we'll post conditions and pictures in here 10 times a day and use this face at the end of each post. lol
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Old 05-02-2012, 06:38 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
24,562 posts, read 13,039,277 times
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Eastern U.S Weekend Forecast.

From Upton, NY. I added a picture of what the Omega Block generally looks like. They prefer the NAM and Euro's thinking.

I found a good Write up about the Omega Block last year. http://www.abc27.com/story/14616128/omega-block-sets-up-over-regionwhats-an-omega-block

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLICATED PATTEN ALOFT SHAPING UP FOR LATE WEEK AS AN OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP THIS BLOCK A BIT TOO FAR EAST...WITH MID
LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE TOO FAR TO THE
EAST THU NIGHT-FRI. PREFER THE THE 00Z NAM AND 01/12Z ECMWF FOR THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST KEEPING A WARM FRONT AT BAY THU NIGHT...THEN ALLOWING IT TO
LIFT NO FARTHER NE THAN WESTERN CT/LONG ISLAND ON FRI.

So they think the High Pressure wont be over North Atlantic or NorthEast Canada.

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Old 05-02-2012, 06:52 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
24,562 posts, read 13,039,277 times
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Is it me or does that say 54 degrees and light snow falling in Minnesota right now?

Elevation 1333. What more strange is that even the 850mb level is way too warm. Its gotta be an error.
7-Day Zone Forecast for Todd County

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