Miss on Long-Range Weather Forecasts (snowfall, average, Chicago, West)

[lpfan921]

I remember reading a blog on AccuWeather's website about how it was going to be an awful winter in the Midwest. They said people in Chicago were going to want to move after this winter. They could not have been more wrong! Kinda funny when those know-it-all meteorologists at the big stations get it totally wrong. Although in full disclosure, i thought the winter would be about average for temps and snowfall, so my forecast was wrong too. But i'm a mere amateur

[Patricius Maximus]

Long-range forecasts have utility; however they have a low accuracy rate. Still they must be issued and tested to improve accuracy in the future and improve our understanding of long-term weather patterns.

Meteorologists should present these forecasts, which are useful, as just that, their forecast, and not something that is a lock or has any certainty. Too often they talk in absolute terms when there are considerable uncertainties, and conditions relating to how these forecasts would verify.