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Hindsight and long term climatology are still the best predictors of what will happen in any give season.
Also, I would just add:
1) Although the West Coast mean trough produced little in the way of above normal precip in most areas…it did produce colder than normal temperatures for many areas of the West Coast last fall and winter, so its impact was still rather significant. A good example is the NWS station in Downtown Los Angeles (USC) - had below normal mean temps in every month from November through April (except for January).
2) Although the SW flow aloft was greatly responsible for the milder winter east of the Rockies last fall/winter, the Atlantic ridge also had a large impact, esp for far eastern areas from NYC southward and and eastward from the mouth of the Mississippi. The Ridge off the Florida/Georgia coast periodically drives warm air into the eastern side of the USA mainland, some years stronger…some years weaker, but the Southeast Ridge is always a player in how much cold can hang on south of 40 north and east of 85 west.
3) Using long term climo as a guide, I think there areas in the far northern tier above 40 latitude (Mt, West/Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/New England) have the best chance of seeing snowy and cold weather. I think the areas from Denver up to Iowa, then from Duluth over to Albany, and of course the typical heavy snows in the passes of the far West. A strong negative NAO might actually work against the hopes of snow fans in the central and eastern USA, meaning it might be colder in the Northern tier, but it will also be drier. Hopefully, for the sake of snow fans, the NAO will only be modestly negative as we head into late fall. The PNW will see typical storm lows coming from the Gulf of Alaska on to the coast with rain in the lowlands and heavy snows at elevation.
Outside of these regions, in the southern Plains, lower Midwest, and East Coast from NYC south to Washington DC, it will be the typical touch and go winter, some fleeting cold and snow, followed by the typical warm up and melting. Some typcial touch and go snow/cold in places like St. Louis, northern Texas, and through the middle Ohio Valley and Middle East Coast.
The far southern half of the from the deserts eastward though the Gulf states and Florida/SC, might even see warmer than normal conditions since this area of the mainland is now back in drought (severe drought in some areas)…and the old timers say drought breeds drought. So the drier air will and dry ground is quick to warm in late winter (just like what happened this year).
Listen at 1:05 into the video. Thats key especially this far out. They are somewhat agreeing.
Listen at 3:00 when he shows the NOAAs forecast, he explains the Jet positions. Usually in El Nino you have 2.
See my map below. Noaa agrees on the southern Jet. So if we can get that northern jet to drop down, its going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Possible Central if the Southern Jet can rise up at time.
See my map below. Noaa agrees on the southern Jet. So if we can get that northern jet to drop down, its going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Possible Central if the Southern Jet can rise up at time.
Amazing. The CPC actually thinks it will be cooler than normal somewhere .
It’s the same marketing ploy/joke year in and year out. Notice that all of the areas that have something written over them (i.e the West Coast, East Coast, Chicago, the southern subtropical coasts/resorts...etc) have large population centers or are resort centers? Isn’t there any weather forecasted this winter in Oklahoma or Arkansas? LOL.
AccuWeather no longer forecasts winter weather...they “market" winter weather.
It’s the same marketing ploy/joke year in and year out. Notice that all of the areas that have something written over them (i.e the West Coast, East Coast, Chicago, the southern subtropical coasts/resorts...etc) have large population centers or are resort centers? Isn’t there any weather forecasted this winter in Oklahoma or Arkansas? LOL.
AccuWeather no longer forecasts winter weather...they “market" winter weather.
Huh?
I guess this was bad marketing? Nothing in the NorthEast where its heaviliy populated? Maybe no weather is going to happen.
Or this. Big cities not above normal snowfall? Cant be. Must be poor marketing techniques.
Or this...every single state is included but Im wonder what happens to northern New Mexico. Maybe they have no weather.
Wait a second....Wait a second... This cant be... a warmer then normal East forecasted by accuweather and non other than Joe Bastardi??? They must of fired the marketing crew after this.
So before we throw out these "targeted" theories, we may want to look back and get some backup for the theory.
Although they are often quite biased, and their maps are lousy, AccuWeather does take long-range forecasting seriously, i.e. it's a real thing, not just a marketing ploy. Like everyone else, their track record isn't that good, but sometimes they score some hits. Just look at how comically off the 2010-11 forecast was, and contrast that with the Mid-Atlantic snow bullseye in 2009-10 that they correctly forecasted (though elsewhere their forecast didn't verify well).
They really need to do a better job on their headline maps. "Stormy", "more ice than snow", and "heaviest snow" doesn't tell me much about how all the other factors in winter are going to play out, especially if "stormy" or "more ice than snow" is normal for that particular place.
So before we throw out these "targeted" theories, we may want to look back and get some backup for the theory.
Well done... That's how you present facts. Could be that Accuweather like everyone else just isn't very good at long range forecasting.
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