Winter 2012-13 Thread (Canada, most, normal, predictions)

[Cambium]

Its clearly obvious La Nina is done.

Whether or not El Nino becomes moderate or weak, odds are El Nino will return for this winter. Or it could stay Neutral. We'll get a better idea in the upcoming months.

This is from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

"La Niña winters, for example, have a high probability of being colder and wetter (or snowier) than normal in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and warmer and drier in the Southeast. On the far side of the Pacific, La Niña is usually accompanied by heavier than normal rainfall and cooler than usual temperatures in eastern Australia"
ClimateWatch Magazine » La Niña fading, likely gone by end of April

[Cambium]

CFS Update:

Mostly pointing to El Nino still. Some models have a moderate El Nino, some have it at Neutral. The average (black dotted line) is a Weak El Nino for December/January

CFSv2 Seasonal Climate Forecasts

[Cambium]

Joe Bastardi talks about the Ocean Waters and El Nino effects on Winter.


Joe Bastardi Thoughts on Winter 2012-13 - YouTube

[Cambium]

CFS is out with its monthly forecast.

I animated the CFS Monthly Temp Departure out to January.

Joe Bastardi said, in order to get a brutal winter after a double La Nina we have to have the water cooler in Eastern Pacific then Central Pacific. You can have it warmer on both sides but the central Pacific needs to be warmer than the Eastern Pacific. OR just get that El Nino to develop.

[Cambium]

Write up from Steve D.
NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

He was the one to say No October snow. he was the one to say on a daily & weekly basis during Jan.Feb.March warm warm warm. I was beginning to think he had a warm bias but as time continued, he was right with the occasional snow in between.. He's big on the stratosphere involvments and was right all along this past winter..

IF... things go a certain way, "we'll be making up for lost time in a big way"

Updated at 7:57 AM on 05/04/12
Winter Thoughts!



Yes I know, we are headed into Summer and everyone is ready for the pool parties, beach, and baseball games. But let me flip the script on you with some winter thoughts.

The chart above is of the Arctic Oscillation. Last winter the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) were positive for much of the last Winter and produced some very pleasant weather conditions for the winter. However, changes in the stratosphere in the higher latitudes, as we know, has produced a far more favorable environment for a negative AO/NAO environment.

If this continues to be a trend combined with a weak west based El Nino, let’s just say we’ll be making up lost time from last year’s winter in a big way. Now, look there’s plenty of time to go here and we have to get past that pesky Myan thing. But still, the trends of a returning prolonged negative AO/NAO pattern over the higher latitudes is an important clue in the pattern over the next 12 months. Once again, this change can be directly connected to a solar output influencing ozone concentration. These types of influences don’t go away very quickly, as we learned last winter on the other end of the spectrum. We won’t feel the complete influence of these changes until the Fall and Winter when the impact of the high latitude stratospheric environment has more of an impact.

I would note however, that IF the El Nino is east based, then the Sub Tropical Jet Stream would be further north and lead to a warm weather pattern along the East coast. Plenty of time to keep an eye on that evolution.

[Cambium]

El Nino Progress Update:

The bottom left shows that below normal temperature anomalies are developing and intensifying! This is a key observation.

You can’t have an El Nino or La Nina without some sort of thermal gradient developing which thus enhances and changes the winds in the atmosphere and enhance convection or thunderstorms at certain areas in the Tropical Pacific.

If the entire Pacific is warm, than there is no gradient and thus no changes in the 500 MB pattern.

However, we can now see, that gradient is in the infant stages of develop and is on track to become fully established by this Fall, as forecasted by many models. Interesting times ahead!


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../wkxzteq.shtml

[Cambium]

Southern Hemisphere shows Signs of Winter in U.S - Joe Bastardi - YouTube

[Cambium]

Steve D on the current QBO(Stratosphere)..

Updated at 7:47 AM on 05/14/12

Not much in the way of new data is available for the Long Range Forecast aside from the typical models like the ECMWF and GFS. One piece of data I’ve been watching is the QBO which continues to crash into a negative state, down to -17.63 and continuing to fall. A negative QBO would suggest that high latitude blocking is more likely and would support the return of the negative NAO pattern seen over the northern Atlantic since March.

However, the atmosphere as always is in a constant battle to reach a balance. In this case, too much of a negative QBO could eventually cause a shift into the negative NAO from a current west base (focus towards North America) to east based (focus towards Europe).

It is the delicate balances such as this as to why I hold off putting out my winter forecast unit late October as this process needs to be watched carefully. However, I should note the last time the QBO was this negative heading into Summer was in 2001 when the QBO bottomed out in the Summer and then rose steadily to a positive state by the Fall. Such a combination with an El Nino would lead to a wet and warm winter. However, if the QBO doesn’t follow that trend, we could be in for a rather interesting winter. No need to jump to conclusions yet though. We got a few months to watch this play out.

[Cambium]

I didnt expect to see a slow down.

Here's the upper ocean surface anomolies. Obviously warming indicates El Nino and cold indicates La Nina.

We were warming up fast since January but now starting to level off. I didnt expect this to happen until early Fall.

So does this mean another La Nina can happen for Winter? Yes, its possible. Nice little curve ball thrown here now.

[Patricius Maximus]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So does this mean another La Nina can happen for Winter? Yes, its possible. Nice little curve ball thrown here now.

Another La Nina would be interesting, though I hope an El Nino does form because La Nina has worn out her novelty factor .