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Old 11-14-2012, 10:21 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,358 posts, read 74,791,214 times
Reputation: 16544

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
So, this dude may be onto something.
He weighs heavily on the stratosphere temps for his winter forecast. Over the years I've seen this play out. This year he throws in the wild cards of Nino and NAO.

For those that arent familiar... A warming stratosphere means more blocking in winter. More blocking in winter means higher chances for snow and cold in the East. Its at record cold level right now maybe thats why we have a positive NAO (no blocking).. They always dont work hand in hand but definetly interesting to see.

And also... for those not aware... Last year Steve called for a cold winter but as soon as he saw the Stratosphere warm on the other side of the globe, he called his forecast off early January. He was right to do so as we had a warm winter and Europe had record snows and cold.

So lets see if that Stratosphere warms up...and where it warms up.
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Old 11-14-2012, 10:28 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,358 posts, read 74,791,214 times
Reputation: 16544
Speaking of blocking.. Since this thread is a winter thread and technically December -February.. I'll start posting in here for this future storm..

I like this setup...unlike the hyped Thanksgiving storm from everyone. Wow, they are all nuts.

Anyway... Here's the GFS shows major blocking up north, a cold front that comes through, a low pressure rounding the base of the trough, a sub jet in play, exits DelMarva, and BOOM, right off the coast on the right rear of the trough... I like this whole senario.

The only things is... I'm having 2009-10 flashbacks with the snow staying south of me in Mid Atlantic. LOL




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Old 11-14-2012, 10:32 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,580 posts, read 7,975,004 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Anyway... Here's the GFS shows major blocking up north, a cold front that comes through, a low pressure rounding the base of the trough, a sub jet in play, exits DelMarva, and BOOM, right off the coast on the right rear of the trough... I like this whole senario.

The only things is... I'm having 2009-10 flashbacks with the snow staying south of me in Mid Atlantic. LOL
2009-10 flashbacks indeed. That storm looks like the December 19, 2009 blizzard, only three weeks earlier. It's interesting that 2009 keeps popping up when discussing this autumn's similarity to other autumns.

Last edited by nei; 11-16-2012 at 05:50 PM..
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Old 11-15-2012, 06:29 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,358 posts, read 74,791,214 times
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El Nino Discontinued

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...y/ensodisc.pdf

"Relative to last month, the SST model predictions more strongly favor ENSO-neutral, although
remaining above-average in the Niño-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 (Fig.
6). While the tropical ocean and atmosphere may resemble a weak El Niño at times, it is now considered
less likely that a fully coupled El Niño will develop. Therefore, the previous El Niño Watch has been
discontinued as the chance of El Niño has decreased. While the development of El Niño, or even La Niña,
cannot be ruled out during the next few months, ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2012-13
(see CPC/IRI consensus forecast)"
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Old 11-16-2012, 09:02 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,358 posts, read 74,791,214 times
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JAMSTEC November 2012 Surface Air Temperature Anomaly for DJF:

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Old 11-16-2012, 11:39 AM
 
Location: Front Range of Colorado
1,635 posts, read 2,510,350 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
JAMSTEC November 2012 Surface Air Temperature Anomaly for DJF:
They completely flipped from the previous two forecasts. For the West, I can believe it.
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Old 11-16-2012, 01:27 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmicstargoat View Post
They completely flipped from the previous two forecasts. For the West, I can believe it.
For the Front Range the JMA shows near normal temperatures. That's quite a difference from your own prediction of a blowtorch winter.
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Old 11-16-2012, 04:00 PM
 
Location: Front Range of Colorado
1,635 posts, read 2,510,350 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
For the Front Range the JMA shows near normal temperatures. That's quite a difference from your own prediction of a blowtorch winter.
Hey, there is absolutely no scientific basis for my prediction. It is made because a lot of people out here are just about punchy from the seemingly never-ending above normal temperatures and debilitating drought.

I don't see any evidence of anything breaking this pattern. We have had only 2 months in the past 24 that were below normal in temperatures. There hasn't been a cold winter in the mountains in 30 years. I'm just going with the flow.
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Old 11-16-2012, 05:42 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,580 posts, read 7,975,004 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmicstargoat View Post
Hey, there is absolutely no scientific basis for my prediction. It is made because a lot of people out here are just about punchy from the seemingly never-ending above normal temperatures and debilitating drought.
Well, I'm just pointing out the discrepancy between the JMA's near normal forecast, which you could believe, and your other blowtorch prediction. I'm not saying anything about how the winter will turn out in the West.
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Old 11-17-2012, 08:54 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,330,890 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Steve D.

7:04 AM on 11/14/12


There is no doubt this morning that the stratosphere is at a historically cold levels at 70 MB and up to 10 MB. The 70 MB level is in fact the coldest that has ever been seen. The reason?
The sun is becoming rather active and that increased activity leads to a destruction of ozone which leads to a rapid cooling of the stratosphere and ionosphere. Now you might think this is a serious problem for my forecast. Well, it’s not yet but something to certainly watch.

The reason why I am not concerned yet is because of where the cold anomalies are setting up. The cold anomalies continue to be focused over the North Pole, northeastern Europe, and Asia which explains why the heights in these locations have been above normal.

An interesting concern is that the Polar Vortex would have the potential to be VERY strong over North America. This could have two potential out comes depending on how the Polar Vortex is positioned. This could lead to a VERY cold, I’m talking Arctic cold, over much of eastern North America for this winter but whether that means stormy or dry will depend on whether this PV sets up towards the northern Plains or towards southeastern Canada. A position in the northern Plains would support the trough axis to be positioned such that the eastern side of the trough will be over the East coast, this is the stormy side of a trough axis. However, if the PV sets up around southeastern Canada, that would lead to a suppression of the storm track to the south and a very cold yet dry weather pattern, unless you live near the Great Lakes where Lake Effect snow would be a problem. The set up of the Polar Vortex IS uncertain and won’t be forecastable until December.

You might be asking me, why am I so sure that we won’t see a repeat of last year? Good question! Well, it’s all about how the 500 MB pattern is setting up. Remember, last year while North America had a nice break from winter, much of eastern Europe and western Asia did not. Those locations had relatively warm stratospheric temperatures and lead to what ever cold air that did develop towards those locations. This year, we see a similar set up but towards North America. Combined this aspect with the well above normal snow growth in North America and what has already been an active and cold weather pattern this late Fall and I think you can see where we are heading.
To put it mildly (and in perspective)…Steve B (who ever that is) is delusional:

1) There are no cold anomalies this fall when you average out the whole fall so far (Sept 1 – Nov 30th)…not just cherry pick early November. In fact, for many NWS stations in the USA, both Sept AND October were well above normal. Although November is running colder than normal in some areas (due to a cold start early in the month)…next week (Thanksgiving week) and the final week of the month should feature normal to above normal temps. So the cold departures that many stations have now, should be greatly reduced, and in some stations – wiped out.

2)True, the Polar Vortex does have the “potential to be VERY strong over North America”….it does every winter in arctic latitudes -lol. That’s just a line to hype winter.


3) A repeat of last year? . A third grader could make the assumption that the warmest winter on record in the USA (last year) is not a high probility event again one year later. That one’s an embarrassment.

4) An “active and cold weather pattern this fall? Where? Mean temps in much of the USA where above normal in Sept AND October...and the cold departures of early November will all be equaled out (again some erased) by months end. So Sept and October was warmer than average, and November should come in +/- 1 to 1.5 F...and that is a "cold fall pattern" to Steve - lol. There is no cold air in the USA now, and by the look of the pattern it should stay that way well into early December.

In fact, according to NOAA/NWS/NCEP….the vast majority of the USA mainland will see normal to above normal temps for the rest of November, December, and January):



It’s one thing to look at a pattern and see real things….it’s quite another to just try to “wishcast”.
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