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I don't believe any of that stuff, never have. Just last fall they were saying we were supposed to have a cold winter, while it turned out to be one of the warmest on record.
I don't believe any of that stuff, never have. Just last fall they were saying we were supposed to have a cold winter, while it turned out to be one of the warmest on record.
I know, I used to think like that too but after something happens we look back and figure out why. Those why's lead to our better knowledge of how things work. One thing is never the reason of a result in weather...Its a marriage (a blend) of so many factors... What I mentioned about the QBO is one factor...
So since we're not future physchics and since we dont have enough records to show what the blends result in, all we can do is go over what that one factor does... And the QBO does play a role.
Then to go even further,... Little things such as where the warm anamolies setup even plays a role with the QBO result. So you have details inside the one factor too.
Exactly. Teleconnections are much better understood and charted now than they were even just 10 years ago. If people didn't keep on trying to predict the future in weather over the centuries we wouldn't have any forecasting at all now!
It My Seem Odd but this winter looks alot like 2005-04 . Anyways Down in texas , houston Its been raining alot lately also we have nto reached past 97F yet.. I believe This winter will start early such as in late september and carry on till early march . Seems like There could be a moderate El nino i would not liek to see la nina return
It My Seem Odd but this winter looks alot like 2005-04 . Anyways Down in texas , houston Its been raining alot lately also we have nto reached past 97F yet.. I believe This winter will start early such as in late september and carry on till early march . Seems like There could be a moderate El nino i would not liek to see la nina return
Interesting. Have you pulled any analogs that show a wet Summer there means a long winter? 2004-05 was a very snowy winter giving almost double the normal to many locations. Including Boston, Bridgeport, CT, Missouri, Minneapolis.
Most of the CFS model runs I've seen portray a very cold winter over the (Eastern) U.S., with a lot of spots having departures from normal that would rival the coldest winters ever recorded. The extreme cold in most of these runs lasts through the duration of the whole winter, i.e. December, January, and February. The fact that this has shown up on the CFS models for months with the warmest fluke runs showing slightly-colder-than-normal months and the coldest ones showing a continuous record-cold winter only backs up what these latest runs are saying. And for the ones who say long-range forecasting is bunk, the CFS nailed last winter's warmth (a product of the variable ridge pattern) when just about every other indicator got it wrong. So that combined with the total pattern change in this hemisphere that has taken place recently puts an extremely cold winter in the cards for 2013. Climate change continues, baby .
One can only hope that those same fools in the United States who thought a 1-2.5 month winter was the "brutal, neverending winter" will get a taste of what a real winter is like, one that actually lasts for the full 3 months. What's on the CFS now is just what the doctor ordered .
Curiously, all of the cold predictions from the CFS and JMA have a similar pattern of the deepest cold being in the interior, with the coasts getting closer to normal readings. This is the same pattern that first emerged in February 2011 when the pattern consisted of a huge trough, bigger than any I've ever seen, covering most of the country, centered in the middle of the States, with the coasts being pretty much out of it. The winter of 2011 was mostly one for the interior, with the only exception to this trend being New England. This is the newfound pattern I've christened the "Pan-American Interior-Centered Trough". According to the cold predictions this pattern will repeat and persist through the winter of 2013.
The winter of 2012, besides featuring the one hot spot being over Laurentia, also featured another strange pattern. It was not one of the classic warm winters where the Southeast Ridge dominated and there were bouts of extreme warmth and sunshine in the south, nor was it a zonal-flow winter, seeing as there were plenty of ridges and troughs at work and the flow was hardly zonal on any particular day in the winter. It was a new pattern which a person at one internet forum has christened the "variable ridge" pattern, and it really describes it well. The variable ridge explains how 2012 was so warm but at the same broke puzzlingly few record highs, whether daily records or winter warmth records. It also explains the lack of any cold weather in the south, which is anomalous in and of itself but is even more puzzling with so few warm records being broken. So, we have two winters in the United States which have featured new patterns as winters there and across the world show a clear cooling trend since the late 2000's. According to most of the models they're about to have a third, this time featuring the new cold pattern, the huge Interior Trough .
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