Winter 2012-13 Thread (storm, locations, prediction, thunderstorms)

[LastKings]

As Maximus said the cold that struck usa in Febuaray 20111 was amazing in texas in houston to be exact we had a day under 32F all day in feb 2011 it would be great to see this last for 2012-13 winter what a joke this winter could be last year was just a warmth to show whats coming in the near future..

[LastKings]

Here is a analog from 2004-05 Summer temps jun-aug http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/images/0...empRank_pg.gif

[LastKings]

As Maximus said the cold that struck usa in Febuaray 20111 was amazing in texas in houston to be exact we had a day under 32F all day in feb 2011 it would be great to see this last for 2012-13 winter what a joke this winter could be last year was just a warmth to show whats coming in the near future

Here is the Temps of 2004-05 winter http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...ate-temps2.jpg

Here is the precip of 2004-05 winter http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...te-precip2.jpg

Here is the summer temps of 2004-05 summer http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/images/0...empRank_pg.gif

[Tony22]

Weak to moderate El Nino

[Patricius Maximus]

An El Nino of some kind looks to be a lock. Whether it's weak, moderate, or strong remains to be seen, but another strong El Nino (after the 2010-12 strong La Nina that followed the 2009-10 strong El Nino) would be a notable event. I think ENSO is a red herring myself. The teleconnections are what determines Laurentian weather conditions, and the patterns associated with ENSO are actually PNA patterns, which do have a correlation to ENSO, though it is a weak one (+PNA for El Nino and -PNA for La Nina), and there are many exceptions, such as 2010-11 which featured a +PNA. +PNA is associated with the El Nino pattern and surprise, surprise, the pattern was more Nino-like than Nina-like.

Plus the purported patterns associated with ENSO are constantly fluctuating anyway, which further speaks to the notion that ENSO is of little use at least east of the Rockies. I've heard El Ninos being associated with warm/wet, warm/dry, and cold/snowy, and I've heard La Ninas being associated with cold/snowy, cold/dry, warm/wet, and warm/dry. The PNA, AO, and NAO are the true "power elite" that drive Laurentian weather.

Notice that 2009-10 and 2010-11 were negative NAO winters and 2011-12 was a positive NAO winter. That has a much greater correlation than the ENSO state, which was in El Nino in 2009-10, and La Nina for both 2010-11 and 2011-12. Also, the cold winter in the rest of the hemisphere was pretty well times with a switch in the AO, from positive to negative starting in late January. If there hadn't been such bad luck for us Laurentians, and perhaps a negative NAO to go with it, 2012 could have featured a cold and snowy late January and February for the U.S. I think the past 3 winters or so and new discoveries as it relates to teleconnections and oscillations have blown the El Nino-La Nina thing out of the water as it relates to direct effect on weather (useful for forecasting anyway). The exceptions are those parts that are on the Pacific. It has a direct effect on Australia and South America and a greater effect on the West Coast of the U.S., but beyond that the AO/NAO/PNA win out. Even the U.S. West Coast is more susceptible to the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) than ENSO. Unsurprisingly, it is currently strongly in the cold phase, bringing with it the colder than usual Spring of 2012 for the Pacific Northwest.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus

The teleconnections are what determines Laurentian weather conditions, and the patterns associated with ENSO are actually PNA patterns, which do have a correlation to ENSO, though it is a weak one...

Plus the purported patterns associated with ENSO are constantly fluctuating anyway, which further speaks to the notion that ENSO is of little use at least east of the Rockies.

As I always say, its like a deck of cards, you can't play with just 51 of them. There's also another saying "its a marriage of sorts".. they are all players in the weather game.

In short, an El Nino enhances storms around the dateline(a point in pacific ocean) which enhances precipitation chances(storms). Guess where most of our systems come from? The Pacific.

Another factor to throw in is the fact that El Nino and La Nina influence the jet stream and that alone is a huge key for a snowy/cold winter. But again, NAO and other ingrediants(cards) need to be dealt correctly in order to get a certain type of weather. But ENSO is the driver, the leader so to speak, the Ace in the deck of cards.

Here's how a typical Jet Stream pattern looks with them. The circle reflects where the warm pool of water is in the Pacific which enhances convection. We have more chances of a Miller A type storm with El Ninos (System comes from pacific, taps gulf moisture, phases with Polar jet, bombs away)

[LastKings]

Looks good.

[Cambium]

Projection keeps going up... Moderate El Nino looking more likely for winter. One thing I like to keepan eye on is, not the peaks but the actual drops and rises. I believe thats when things become active.

[Patricius Maximus]

Wouldn't it be something if it was a Strong El Nino? When in the past has a Strong El Nino been followed by a Strong La Nina and then followed by another Strong El Nino? I know that the transition from the Strong Nino in 2009-10 to the Strong Nina in 2010-12 was the fastest on record between Strong ENSOs.

[Cambium]

Cool write up by Jeff Masters from April on unusual Jet Stream being a factor in Sea Ice loss. Then there's an explaination on why last winter was so warm.

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns | Weather Underground

On that note.. NAO continues to be Negative for over a month now. Its not the only driver but in the winter it gives better chances of Cold and Snow. I'm hoping it goes positive for a few months August/September.