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Old 04-16-2012, 07:58 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Default Winter 2012-13 Thread

Looks like we're headed towards an El Nino Winter.

Pretty good agreement on it. Whether its weak, moderate or strong remains to be seen. Also if its West base or not.

This latest update has it as weak Nino.

You can find the projected updates here. Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies

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Old 04-16-2012, 08:03 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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I was going to use the months of November-March but I figure keep it simple in case there's a fall thread eventually.

Do any locations start winter in November? If so maybe we should change it because this thread is for all locations..
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Old 04-16-2012, 09:27 PM
 
Location: New York City
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As long as winter doesn't start in April, otherwise I'm really indifferent.
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Old 04-16-2012, 09:53 PM
 
Location: Sydney, Australia
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LOL, you guys haven't even started summer yet! Yes unfortunately looks like a weak Nino for the latter half of this year which more than likely means hot and dry in eastern Australia and parts of the US/Canada as well.

What's the old Farmer's Almanac saying?
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Old 04-17-2012, 03:52 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
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One of the super-long-range forecast models, the JMA, has some interesting results. It accurately predicted all of the past year, and it is currently predicting a much colder than normal autumn and a much colder than normal winter across basically the entire North American continent.

I have read that the autumn cold that it is showing would be close to or exceeding record cold in many locations and the winter it's showing is colder than 2010-11. It also looks like the same pattern persists and intensifies through the duration of both seasons, and interestingly it's the same sort of interior-focused cold pattern, the opposite of 2011-12's pattern.

So early indications for the winter of 2012-13 are encouraging for someone like me . I am of the belief that ENSO's impact east of the Rockies has been vastly overblown and that it has no influence there; a few statistical studies not to mention the past 3 winters support that conclusion. The effects attributed to ENSO are actually effects of the PNA, whose negative phase produces the La Nina weather, and the positive phase produces the El Nino pattern. There are other teleconnections that have great influence, the AO/NAO being foremost among them, and the EPO, PDO, et cetera. Still, an El Nino coming up next winter certainly couldn't hurt. It's too early to issue any sort of forecast now, but as I said currently things are looking up.
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Old 04-17-2012, 04:24 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Years with a weak El Nino since 1950

1951-1952
1963-1964
1968-1969
1969-1970
1976-1977
1977-1978
2004-2005
2006-2007

Using all those years, here's how the blend of temperature & precip look. Cold and Normal precip for most.

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Old 04-17-2012, 04:43 AM
 
Location: Sydney, Australia
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Interesting that the cold anomalies are on the east coast for El Nino. Southern California is the only sizeable region with a tendency for above average rainfall too (which is balanced out with a strongish dry tendency in the Pacific Northwest). The PNW seems to be similar to eastern Australia- wet in La Nina too.
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Old 04-17-2012, 04:46 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dxnerd86 View Post
Interesting that the cold anomalies are on the east coast for El Nino. Southern California is the only sizeable region with a tendency for above average rainfall too (which is balanced out with a strongish dry tendency in the Pacific Northwest). The PNW seems to be similar to eastern Australia- wet in La Nina too.
Dont forget this was for a weak El Nino. I'm sure it would be a different look if we used all El Nino years.
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Old 04-17-2012, 05:02 AM
 
Location: Buxton, England
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We haven't even got near summer yet. Lock the thread.
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Old 04-17-2012, 05:19 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
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I object to that. This is a discussion about the proximate, upcoming winter and there are real early indicators here as for how the winter is going to play out, as opposed to just speculation. If you and your biases can't stand to see some people talking about the next winter coming up, anticipating the cold instead of dreading or denying it, then that's too bad. No one is under any obligation to read or post about this topic, and it should be kept open. If anyone wants to start a summer thread I would have no problem with that.
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