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Haven't been followed the recent weather too much, so I got a map of the month to date to see how cold it's been. Here it is, from the High Plains Climate Center:
Cold concentrated in the Upper Midwest and lower Great Lakes / PA. Interesting wave shape
Completely different shape last month:
looking at just the northeast:
Record-breaking was localized, but many places had a very hot July, though the last week brought the numbers down.
Look at this 11-15 day temp departure forecast off the European Center's model. We could have selected the Weather Service's GFS ensemble or Environment Canada's GEM ensemble model because their forecasts depict the same trend. Our in-house average of predicted Chicago temp departures across the suite of global model forecasts we examine are as follows: Days 1-5: 6.6-deg below normal; Days 6-10: 0.3-deg below normal and Days 11-15: 1.9-deg above normal.
Quote:
Could a North American pattern change, signaling a move away from the "wavy" or, as we say in the meteorological profession "meridional" pattern, be in the works in the 1 to 2 week time range? It looks sure looks that way. We mentioned the appearance of a "flatter" or more "zonal" steering flow pattern aloft showing up on a suite of global forecast models--a trend which continues in the forecasts we've reviewed looking out into the medium range over the weekend. This could signal warmer temps and an end to the pervasive below normal temp regime which has dominated this summer. Here's the European Center's upper air forecast depicting a warmer, more western upper level steering flow.
Yeah, the Bermuda high showing its ugly head again trying to get back into the war battles with the troughs. What a fight!
I think we're going back to a warming trend after mid August. but it just means upper 80s maybe local 90s north of D.C. As opposed to widespread 90s like last month. Only because its a race against the seasonal clock now
Euro hinting at the Western Ridge shifting East so the bermuda high might not even be the reason. Once we get closer the models will start to iron things out but a warming trend is being shown
Yeah, the Bermuda high showing its ugly head again trying to get back into the war battles with the troughs. What a fight!
I think we're going back to a warming trend after mid August. but it just means upper 80s maybe local 90s north of D.C. As opposed to widespread 90s like last month. Only because its a race against the seasonal clock now
Euro hinting at the Western Ridge shifting East so the bermuda high might not even be the reason. Once we get closer the models will start to iron things out but a warming trend is being shown
Just when our ocean temps have finally been decent in the mid 70's, and now at the end of August those lousy SW winds are coming back? I may be one of the few, but I don't consider our recent weather that cold. Temps are averaging so far for August 81.4/68.1. Cooler than normal, but still warm enough to enjoy the beach.
Latest models dont seem to get too extreme for the East BUT Upper 80s likely and pockets of 90s should happen soon. The majority of the heat looks to stay in central U.S. Looks like the ridge shifts east a bit.
This is the hottest frame from the latest Eur012z. Montana, Texas and California look to get really above normal.
Its the GFS thats showing warmer temps in the East after the 22nd. But I have to use my own advice and theory. When in a current pattern and "long range" shows opposite...be careful believing it until its being shown in short term. So we'll see.
A 9c night is not cold. I average 10c and braemar averages 8.6c. I am sure I have had 8c average before.
Yes, 2011 and 2010.
Aboyne averaged 7.3c in August 2011.
Last edited by Mac15; 08-12-2013 at 04:41 PM..
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