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Old 04-17-2012, 05:45 AM
 
Location: Buxton, England
7,039 posts, read 3,778,344 times
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Default Summer 2013 Thread — Northern Hemisphere

OK, so summer 2012 is on the way, but because the winter 2013 thread is already out, and seems to be a record for earliest seasonal thread considering the season in question, I thought I will beat that record, with the Summer 2013 thread, some 14 months early.

So what do you think will affect what kind of summer we will get in 2013? There is a possibility that El Nino could still be strong or weakening slightly by then, what does this mean for summer where you live?

One thing I saw on the BBC is this interesting article, about the arctic being ice free in Summer 2013:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

The problem for the UK is that some have associated the excessive melting of arctic sea ice with colder weather patterns here, so not necessarily good news for us. Eevrybody knows that cold sucks, especially when you already live in a summerless shytehole, so that ain't good news if the link 'ere is true.
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Old 04-17-2012, 07:25 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,072 posts, read 2,644,315 times
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The teleconnections will undoubtedly be the primary driver of weather, even though they really lose their punch past May, at least in North America. I don't buy into the ENSO effects on weather myself, at least outside of the Pacific regions, but an El Nino condition is supposed to mean a cool and wet summer for North America, and I think the same is true for the U.K.

If that's the case then it's bad news for you . Meanwhile in August I'll be throwing a party for 16 consecutive cold months here on the Laurentian craton . Seriously if the JMA is correct in predicting persistent very cold conditions in Laurentia going through summer, autumn, and winter, and there's a cool summer as well, that may not be too far off. However I'm not one to "count the chickens before they hatch".

As for arctic sea ice I'm skeptical of ice extent having much of an impact on the weather conditions, at least barring the arctic being ice-free every summer. I don't think that's going to happen if there's anything less than extreme warmth over the arctic and disastrous wind current conditions that suck the ice out of the arctic basin. From what I can tell things aren't trending that way, and ice extent is trending upwards, so unless this is a really big melt season this year the volume of ice may be too much to melt down completely in 2013.

As for the record, it can be yours to keep .
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Old 04-17-2012, 07:42 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 4,522,395 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weatherfan2 View Post
OK, so summer 2012 is on the way, but because the winter 2013 thread is already out, and seems to be a record for earliest seasonal thread considering the season in question, I thought I will beat that record, with the Summer 2013 thread, some 14 months early.

So what do you think will affect what kind of summer we will get in 2013? There is a possibility that El Nino could still be strong or weakening slightly by then, what does this mean for summer where you live?

One thing I saw on the BBC is this interesting article, about the arctic being ice free in Summer 2013:

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'

The problem for the UK is that some have associated the excessive melting of arctic sea ice with colder weather patterns here, so not necessarily good news for us. Eevrybody knows that cold sucks, especially when you already live in a summerless shytehole, so that ain't good news if the link 'ere is true.
For the USA mainland I really think despite the mild winter/warm sunny spring in the northern tier, and hot and dry conditions in the southern tier…summer 2012 will be close to normal in the USA. This is the pattern that much of the USA has been in since December to now (cool wet in the far West , warm and dry much of everwhere eles:




Even the Weather Channel forcasted the same above normal temp for much of the USA (outside the far West Coast) this spring:




Now as we head into the long summer season... I think summer 2012 will see the typical Bermuda High off the East Coast, hot and dry in the Southwestern Deserts, a warming off the West Coast, and the closer to normal temps from June through September/October in much of the rest of the USA. The drought I think will be the story again this summer in parts of the USA. The weak El Nino should suppress the number of tropical cyclones in the Gulf/Caribbean/Atlantic, but I would still think seasonal averages will just below normal.


Here are the average average highs for April and May in the USA:



[


.
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Old 04-17-2012, 10:07 AM
Status: "For a real chill, read Winter Fall" (set 6 days ago)
 
Location: Atlanta
1,831 posts, read 1,298,934 times
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While I've written off this summer, I just can't imagine us being anywhere near normal, let alone below normal (seems this is a dream that will be forever out of reach down here. ), there's always hope that a supervolcano will erupt in the tropics somewhere, which would do a fair job of cooling down this overheated climate of ours. 9 degrees C decrease would be perfect for here, that would give us superb summers and nice, cold and snowy winters, probably with ferocious storms to boot.

Well, a guy can dream, right?
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Old 04-17-2012, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,072 posts, read 2,644,315 times
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I'd like to keep everyone informed that this thread is about the summer of 2013; the upcoming summer is the summer of 2012. Notice those are two different years. If we want to discuss the summer that is upon us now, we should start a separate thread for that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NorthStarDelight View Post
While I've written off this summer, I just can't imagine us being anywhere near normal, let alone below normal (seems this is a dream that will be forever out of reach down here. )
Bizarrely it does seem so, that above normal temperatures are perpetual in your region. Obviously that isn't the case otherwise the normal itself would be higher! Regardless I believe that this frustration is due to two factors:

1. When below-normal temperatures occur during the cool season, they almost never last in your region for an extended and always "barely hang on" or are difficult to obtain; a flip to heat is very reliable, much more so than the unreliable cold. Put another way, heat is reliable in your region and tends to be more tenacious, whereas cold is fleeting and unreliable.

2. Due to the monotony of the weather in your area, it can be hard to tell if temperatures are below normal. The weather is so monotonous either way that it all seems to merge into an indistinct blur.

Quote:
there's always hope that a supervolcano will erupt in the tropics somewhere, which would do a fair job of cooling down this overheated climate of ours. 9 degrees C decrease would be perfect for here, that would give us superb summers and nice, cold and snowy winters, probably with ferocious storms to boot.

Well, a guy can dream, right?
Ah, yes, one can dream . Also a supervolcano is far from the only means of climatic cooling. Glacial cycles, Bond events, and Gulf Stream shutdowns are among the many means of cooling down the overheated American South. I would highly recommend reading up on historical climate, ice ages, and Snowball Earth events over geologic time. It's fascinating stuff, and I may add that the details of what our planet looked like during the last (and next) glacial periods are of particular interest. This EPA webpage has a lot of insight. If you were in Kentucky in 20 000 BC it would have been like the North Slope on steroids from what I can find; in the next glacial once the ice sheet reaches heights of hundreds of feet it would be the ultimate ice-climbing challenge, with the brutally cold winds that would sweep down into Tennessee. Also, it's pretty certain that during the last glacial your area had a subarctic climate with this sort of vegetation.
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Old 04-17-2012, 07:17 PM
B87
 
Location: SW London
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Most days will have highs around 75F, partly cloudy with occasional showers.
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:00 AM
Status: "For a real chill, read Winter Fall" (set 6 days ago)
 
Location: Atlanta
1,831 posts, read 1,298,934 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
Most days will have highs around 75F, partly cloudy with occasional showers.

Dunno which would be better, heaven, or the summer you've just described.

Wait, they're one and the same.
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:25 AM
B87
 
Location: SW London
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Well everyone else seems to moan about them!
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Old 04-18-2012, 04:41 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,072 posts, read 2,644,315 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
Well everyone else seems to moan about them!
Humbug.
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Old 04-18-2012, 10:14 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
10,546 posts, read 5,623,996 times
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Those people probably haven't experienced a proper summer.
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