Are East Coast winters a joke? (climate, snowfall, hot, warm)

[lpfan921]

I personally think winters in PA are long and cold, with 2012 being a rare exception. But i know a lot of you snow-lovers disagree, so here is your chance to discuss why you think winters in our area are pathetic. I will officially dedicate this thread to Patricius Maximus and Ilovemycomputer

[dunno what to put here]

East Coast winters are a total joke because there is not enough snow and the snow does not last long enough. New York and Philadelphia winters are laughable.

[GraniteStater]

Go to the interior Northeast and winters are very good, especially if you like consistent snowcover and outdoor amenities.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by lpfan921

I personally think winters in PA are long and cold, with 2012 being a rare exception. But i know a lot of you snow-lovers disagree, so here is your chance to discuss why you think winters in our area are pathetic. I will officially dedicate this thread to Patricius Maximus and Ilovemycomputer

I'm not a big winter fan as well ( you seem not to like winter too)...so keep in mind your on the edge of the crappy winter (points west and north)... from the better winter (points east and esp. south): Winters below NYC and east of I-95 are really pretty easy in most years...while winters to the north (above NYC) and to the West (upState NY/New England/Great Lakes...etc are much tougher. For people who dislike winter it can get really ugly from Upsate NY /Massachuttes northward.

Here is the average annual snowfall...you can see that seasonal snowfall totals fall like a rock south of NYC and east of I-95. My advice if you dislike the cold season but want to stay in the Middle Atlantic…move east and south a little and winter will be even shorter. Places as close as VA Beach are often warm(ish) in winter (days in the 50 – 60 F range) and get very little snow.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Go to the interior Northeast and winters are very good, especially if you like consistent snowcover and outdoor amenities.

Exactly. There is a big diff between the climate of Scranton and Philadelphia. The coastal plain is more rain than snow in winter. But interior NE can get a lot more snow and cold. Also quite a bit less sunshine hours.

[MrMarbles]

This is obviously very relative. To someone from Alaska, yes NYC or Philly winters will be a joke. To someone from California or Florida or even Texas, Northeast winters will seem cold and long.

I get the idea behind using a "persistent snow cover" as a definition of a "true winter". There is some logic to it. But it's just not my cup of tea.

Some winters in NYC can be pretty cold and snowy. Winter 2010/11 was very snowy, with several blizzards. Temperatures also dropped to as low as single digits F, and below 0F in the suburbs. 0F = -18C. So I don't think NYC winters are a joke. They are just highly variable, day to day and year to year. Also if you really like snow, you can drive a couple of hours inland and find plenty of snow in the maintains.

[Patricius Maximus]

Well, thanks for dedicating the thread to me and ilmc90. If I'm not mistaken it's the first time I've had something here dedicated to me, so I must be doing something right .

Anyway, while "a joke" is neither the first phrase that comes to mind nor the most accurate description, I essentially agree with that notion. I believe that winters in the (coastal) Mid-Atlantic and New York City area are short and warm with only token amounts of snow. There are exceptions, such as when there is barely a winter at all, warm or otherwise, as in 2012, and there is the occasional rare exception in the snow department, like 2010. While even I will admit that 70 inches is quite a respectable figure, even in 2010 there was frequent warmth and total melting comprising most of the winter, most precipitation came in the form of rain, and with the exception of the two February blizzards there was never much of a snowpack that was maintained. On the flip side, even in really cold winters true cold is hard to come by. Using 2010 again, temperatures even approaching zero were absent. In 2010 the minimum in Philadelphia for the entire winter was 12F, which combined with the dominant warmth or mildness makes even that winter very subpar in the temperature department. In just about every other winter it is like that or even warmer.

In 2011, which was quite a cold winter and well-known for its "brutality", the minimums were 17F for December, 3F for January, and 1F for February. Even in this winter, which was exceptionally consistently cold through December and January, there was major thawing in all months, and above-freezing high temperatures comprised the vast majority of days. Although the temperatures did approach zero, again subzero temperatures were absent.. Coastal locations such as New York are even worse, which only record subzero temperatures at best once per decade. In fact New York hasn't recorded a subzero temperature in 18 years, which is longer than some members of this forum have been alive. Imagine: one could be born, grow up, and reach adulthood in New York or the coastal Mid-Atlantic and never see a temperature below zero. Even parts of the Southeast can do better than that. More ammunition for why winters in the Mid-Atlantic/NYC winters are a joke. Frosts and freezes always come late in the year, and even in New York above-freezing lows in December are very common. Although this is due to seasonal lag (March can be colder than that), even the colder months don't do much better. Temperatures below 20F are seldom seen in New York City, and again rain is the dominant form of preciptiation, there is frequent major thawing, and on average there is no snowpack to maintain.

Even if one counts all the snow that melts the next day, snow totals aren't much, maxing out at below 30 inches, in many cases well below that figure. In New York and in coastal parts of the Mid-Atlantic, normally 50F is far easier to attain than 10F. Also, what little snow these places get is almost always wet snow or slush. One will almost never see significant quantities of powdery snow in these places, which is very telling of how cold the place usually gets (namely, not at all cold), and the amount of powder is one of my key metrics of rating how wintry a place is. Regardless of one's preference for powder or sticky stuff, one has to admit that powder is more wintry, as it occurs with colder temperatures and is associated with less next-day melting.

I will also transfer two quotes from other threads where I have commented on this topic before:

Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus in the "skipping summer" thread

At issue here are seasonal definitions; they are contentious and I do not wish to derail this thread with them. However, you have to face up to the fact that historically it's a lot easier to "skip winter" than to "skip summer", meaning that it is (relatively) easy to have little to no snow, especially sticking around, whereas it's impossible or nearly impossible for it to not be constantly warm to hot in summer. And I'm being generous with the snow; using cold it's even harder on the warmth crowd, since even in cold, snowy years subzero temperatures are pretty much absent. And as for summer, I don't believe Philadelphia has ever, at any time in recorded history, dropped below 50 in July, and in June and August monthly record lows are in the mid 40's.

Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus in the subtropical debate

Subjective measures was exactly my point, but I do consider NYC's Winters to be warm, as it is quite difficult to even get a low below 20 except on the coldest nights (even Nashville can do better than that). There's a near-complete absence of anything I'd call a cold snap, and there isn't persistent snowpack there, either. Furthermore, the precipitation type is rain most of the time, and the general rule with a snowstorm there is that in 4-7 days it will warm up and rain. Temperatures above 40 degrees are also quite common during the daytime, along with nights not much cooler than that, because of its low daily range. 50 degrees also seems to be more attainable than 15 degrees. Nights are not cold in that place most of the time during Winter, and nights are usually kind of warm in the early Winter; it's quite common to have nights above freezing during December, and it is not uncommon not to even have a freeze until the month of December (it occurred just this winter).

Shall I go on? These are the essential characteristics of New York City's winters, which even if they are not all that warm, are certainly not cold and not harsh, as it relates to Winter measures.

In the coastal Mid-Atlantic/NYC's favor I will mention that this region always has a distinct period of tree dormancy, although in warm years the grass will stay green (very telling of the lack of cold snaps). This makes your winters less of a joke than southern England's, where in warm years autumn leaves coincide with spring blooming in January, but there's a lot more to winter than that, and partial dormancy is just about all that the Mid-Atlantic does have, aside from some token snow.

While you did intend in your post for us to rate Mid-Atlantic winters (namely Pennsylvania), your thread mentions the East Coast winters. In different parts of the East Coast there are widely disparate climates, and I confined my rating to the coastal Mid-Atlantic and the New York City area. This weather region also largely extends on a coastal strip to around Providence, Rhode Island. This region I'm rating is pretty much coterminus with the areas that are classed as Koeppen Cfa (using the -3C line).

The interior Mid-Atlantic/Northeast is quite different and has to be rated on a completely different basis. Overall they are quite a bit better winter-wise than the coastal Mid-Atlantic/NYC, and their winters are not a joke. They're also more prone to cold snaps. Even so I don't think much of their winters, but their deficiencies don't rise to a level of a joke. This region extends from around Syracuse southward to the Pennsylvania mountains, and extending westward to the western borders of New York and Pennsylvania.

Non-coastal New England excluding Maine must also be rated as a distinct region, and the southern part of this zone is rated as decent, and since they maintain a snowpack in winter they do have a real winter. Northern New England actually has good winters, with cold temperatures and a good amount of snow. If this was northern New England I would agree with the assertion that winters are long and cold.

Maine is also a distinct region, and oftentimes we forget that Maine is part of the American East Coast. Almost all of Maine has winters that are long and cold, and I'd rate the winters of most of interior Maine as good, with the remainder being decent.

So, the "East Coast" in this topic actually comprises four distinct regions:

1) The coastal part of the Mid-Atlantic states, plus the NYC area extending on the immediate coast to Rhode Island. Cape Cod and the islands off the coast that sport a Cfb climate may also be included, or form a distinct region of their own.

2) The interior part of the Mid-Atlantic states and part of New York state from around Syracuse and south and west of that.

3) New England excluding the coastal strip that's part of the first region. This includes all of conventionally defined New England, excluding the southern coast and Maine, and also includes the Adirondacks and the rest of New York state not part of the second region

4) The state of Maine, perhaps including a chunk of northern New England (such as most of NH and VT)


Confusing enough for you all ? It's really less complicated than it sounds, and it's quite intuitive once one looks at maps of Koeppen classifications (Cfa, Dfa, Cfb, Dfb), average winter temperatures, and average seasonal snowfall. And I haven't even begun to list the distinct regions of the coast that are south of Philadelphia...

(Of course that's irrelevant to this thread)

EDIT: Boy, this was a long post, perhaps the longest I've ever submitted. I had no idea I'd have to go on for so long about the Mid-Atlantic's winters.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I'm not a big winter fan as well ( you seem not to like winter too)...so keep in mind your on the edge of the crappy winter (points west and north)... from the better winter (points east and esp. south): Winters below NYC and east of I-95 are really pretty easy in most years...while winters to the north (above NYC) and to the West (upState NY/New England/Great Lakes...etc are much tougher. For people who dislike winter it can get really ugly from Upsate NY /Massachuttes northward.

Here is the average annual snowfall...you can see that seasonal snowfall totals fall like a rock south of NYC and east of I-95. My advice if you dislike the cold season but want to stay in the Middle Atlantic…move east and south a little and winter will be even shorter. Places as close as VA Beach are often warm(ish) in winter (days in the 50 – 60 F range) and get very little snow.

One thing to note about the map is that particularly in the South it is not a linear transition between the bands. Chrarleston, SC looks like it would be around maybe 3" or 4" but actually only averages .6" of snowfall per year. Though the "average" I'm sure isn't what they actually get every year. More likely it is due to one winter every five or so years getting a few inches and most winters getting none at all. Even interior South like Jackson averages only .8" a year. From the map it looks like around 4" or 5". Still is a good map though. I find it interesting that a place like Tobyhanna, PA (Pocono Mts) averages 57.3" and a 2 hour drive away we average 22" (used to be 19" until the 1981-2020 data came out).

I think a map which illustrated average January, or winter snowpack (cover) would be more revealing about winter conditions. We can get 5" of snow and many times it turns to rain after so many hours and the next day there is nothing. Most winter days here have no snowpack.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus

This region I'm rating is pretty much coterminus with the areas that are classed as Koeppen Cfa (using the -3C line).

It's really less complicated than it sounds, and it's quite intuitive once one looks at maps of Koeppen classifications (Cfa, Dfa, Cfb, Dfb), average winter temperatures, and average seasonal snowfall.

I would say I pretty much agree with much of what you say about the winter part (above). NYC itself averages pretty mild winters if you look at the long term data. 2011 was a once in 50 year winter in NYC (and much of the snowfall was concentrated between late Dec and early Feb).

What I find more interesting is this: This is where I think Koppen does very well. Note how that -3 C/27 line is so important on the annual snowfall map above. From what I remember (it has been awhile), that 27 – 30 F coldest month line runs right along the Atlantic coast from Cape Cod through southern Rhode Island, southern Connecticut, Long Island, to the city (NYC) you mention . Is it not a coincidence that seasonal snowfall falls like a rock from these locations southward (look at the color change in parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island!)…enough so Koppen had some change in climate type in this region going from north to south:

Koppen (you can just make out the line just above NYC) :




Obviously climatologists saw some type of climate change across the very region you mention (NYC/CT/RI southward).

[Patricius Maximus]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

One thing to note about the map is that particularly in the South it is not a linear transition between the bands. Chrarleston, SC looks like it would be around maybe 3" or 4" but actually only averages .6" of snowfall per year. Though the "average" I'm sure isn't what they actually get every year. More likely it is due to one winter every five or so years getting a few inches and most winters getting none at all. Even interior South like Jackson averages only .8" a year. From the map it looks like around 4" or 5". Still is a good map though.

This PDF file contains a superior map in my view; it distinguishes between places that get 50 inches and 150 inches better, and also has better dividing lines (8, 32, 64, 128 inches). Wavehunter's point about snowfall dropping off near NYC is still valid, though.

You can look at another map here.

I find it interesting that a place like Tobyhanna, PA (Pocono Mts) averages 57.3" and a 2 hour drive away we average 22" (used to be 19" until the 1981-2020 data came out).

Until the 1981-2020 data came out? If you have weather data and normals from the future, I'd like to see them .

I think a map which illustrated average January, or winter snowpack (cover) would be more revealing about winter conditions. We can get 5" of snow and many times it turns to rain after so many hours and the next day there is nothing. Most winter days here have no snowpack.

I can't find any average snow depth maps of the U.S., strangely enough. However I was able to find this seasonal snowpack change animation, which I believe was taken one year in the 2000's. Snow cover looks a bit below normal in the States, but also looks reasonably typical (unlike 2012). A Koeppen climate map may also provide some limited insight, given that -3C is the persistent snow line (the boundary between Cfa/Dfa).

I also found a map detailing the average number of snowstorms with totals of 6 inches or more across the States. As one can see, the West is king, along with parts of northern New England and parts of the Lake Superior area.