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Location: Kowaniec, Nowy Targ, Podhale. 666 m n.p.m.
355 posts, read 977,244 times
Reputation: 497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SophieLL
Lets hope this remains like that! The only thing thats left is that our little but lovely winter dissapears! we already lost our autumn!! June and July are my hope for CONSISNTENTLY cold days. Or, lets put it this way: consistently NOT WARM days! Like, an entire month withouth a 25 celsius day or a 20 celsius night like we got a lot in May, and of course in April!
Please, god, let it June be a month FREE of 20 celsius nights!!!!
How uncommon are 20 celsius nights in June/july, sanfel? I mean how is the percentage? I wanna know that i WONT be getting ANY 20 ceslius night in 2 months!! is this even possible or am i dreaming?
20 celsius nights in June/July/August are very uncommon... Might only happen a few nights a year... Outside of those three months, I've actually never seen it happen... Then of course, we're northern hemisphere...
Although his short and medium term forecasts often leave much to be desired, I believe he is correct in the notion that Little Ice Age patterns and weather are appearing and have gradually increased their grip in the past few years. Solar activity trends also support this; in 20 years or so there's a good chance sunspot activity will be pretty much dead. Don't tell me that you all have already forgotten the winters of 2010 and 2011 in the Northern Hemisphere, plus all the cold anomalies that dominate the globe even in the midst of the warm winter of 2012 (warm in Laurentia anyway), plus the super-charged jet stream creating much stronger and more frequent storm systems, plus extreme blocking (though cold will dominate, the stronger jet stream can from time to time amplify warmth especially in the early stages - just look at March 2012), plus the sea ice rebound, and the increased precipitation worldwide (driven by both the prior warming and stronger storms; look at all the floods in the 14th century; that's part of the early stage, later on it gets dryer). Not to mention the La Nina, widespread cool anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere (really cold winters and summers in many more areas than before), and the deeply cold PDO, and the declining AMO. The super-charged jet stream is a real phenomenon that has been documented by many meteorologist. On a worldwide scale the jet stream has remained very strong for a long period of time, more so than in any met's experience, and this is a surefire sign of the coming Little Ice Age pattern. This is pretty much the opposite of what would happen in a warming scenario, which due to the lower temperature gradient would feature weaker storms and a weaker jet stream.
It's global, not local, and even then the trend now isn't strong enough to have a (noticeable) effect everywhere or in all seasons. I have to tell you to ask Alaskans what they think about the reality of global cooling . It's certainly as valid as some of your points.
As for the muddled magnetic state he's referring to new research that suggests that the sun's magnetic field will go quadrupolar this month, thus causing lower solar activity. This is a real paper out of a Japanese research center, and they believe that the Maunder Minimum may have featured such a magnetic structure. Whether it will actually do that or not remains to be seen, but it doesn't come from the ravings of a lunatic.
As for his astrophysicist title, it certainly lends itself to monitoring the sun which is part and parcel of his (not so good) forecasting method. I'd remain open to people from other fields pitching into meteorology. He certainly does as well as some professional meteorologists when it comes to long-range forecasting. Not at all accurate, but it's worth pointing out.
In any case, we'll find out in about 10 or 20 years who was right and what will happen. Whatever humans do to the climate with CO2 and so forth will be inconsequential on millennial time scales.
20 celsius nights in June/July/August are very uncommon... Might only happen a few nights a year... Outside of those three months, I've actually never seen it happen... Then of course, we're northern hemisphere...
Yeah, but i mean in buenos aires.
I might even do a bet with myself, i want 2 months WITHOUT a 20 celsius night. Notice im saying "night" instead of "day" cause i know its impossible to not get a 20 celsius day in june or july. But the night thing is most possible. I want this to happen this winter. Two months without a 20c night. Thats all im asking: dont hit the 20c mark! If it hits the 20c, i might have to do something like cut my hair......i just wanna know how high are my chances of winning. If it never hits 20 i win, if it does...i lose.
At NIGHT of course.
I wanna know how little are my odds of winning....sanfel?? 40%? 30%? 10%?? how many times in the last five years the temp have reached 20c AT NIGHT in june and july? Cause if you tell me all five years this have happened, then im not playing, lol.
Location: Kowaniec, Nowy Targ, Podhale. 666 m n.p.m.
355 posts, read 977,244 times
Reputation: 497
Quote:
Originally Posted by SophieLL
Yeah, but i mean in buenos aires.
I might even do a bet with myself, i want 2 months WITHOUT a 20 celsius night. Notice im saying "night" instead of "day" cause i know its impossible to not get a 20 celsius day in june or july. But the night thing is most possible. I want this to happen this winter. Two months without a 20c night. Thats all im asking: dont hit the 20c mark! If it hits the 20c, i might have to do something like cut my hair......i just wanna know how high are my chances of winning. If it never hits 20 i win, if it does...i lose.
At NIGHT of course.
I wanna know how little are my odds of winning....sanfel?? 40%? 30%? 10%?? how many times in the last five years the temp have reached 20c AT NIGHT in june and july? Cause if you tell me all five years this have happened, then im not playing, lol.
Come visit me in Poland. Our summers might be the most pleasant winters you've ever experienced in your life ;-)
I might even do a bet with myself, i want 2 months WITHOUT a 20 celsius night. Notice im saying "night" instead of "day" cause i know its impossible to not get a 20 celsius day in june or july. But the night thing is most possible. I want this to happen this winter. Two months without a 20c night. Thats all im asking: dont hit the 20c mark! If it hits the 20c, i might have to do something like cut my hair......i just wanna know how high are my chances of winning. If it never hits 20 i win, if it does...i lose.
At NIGHT of course.
I wanna know how little are my odds of winning....sanfel?? 40%? 30%? 10%?? how many times in the last five years the temp have reached 20c AT NIGHT in june and july? Cause if you tell me all five years this have happened, then im not playing, lol.
Haha, it is quite uncommon but not at all unprecedented. The normal thing is to have a "June-July" without a single 20c night for sure, but it has happened on occasion. August is a bit more prone to a 20c night (especially at the end) usually followed by a huge storm (with likely thunder, lightning, hail, tornadoes) and a steady temp drop.
As for having a long stretch without hitting the 20C mark at day; well, yes, that's far more unlikely, but it has happened on occasion. Something like 2 months in a row, June-July one of the last years, but its very uncommon.
To sum it up, your bet could be 60% or 70% percent that there won't be any 20C night this June-July. Perhaps even 80%.
Haha, it is quite uncommon but not at all unprecedented. The normal thing is to have a "June-July" without a single 20c night for sure, but it has happened on occasion. August is a bit more prone to a 20c night (especially at the end) usually followed by a huge storm (with likely thunder, lightning, hail, tornadoes) and a steady temp drop.
As for having a long stretch without hitting the 20C mark at day; well, yes, that's far more unlikely, but it has happened on occasion. Something like 2 months in a row, June-July one of the last years, but its very uncommon.
To sum it up, your bet could be 60% or 70% percent that there won't be any 20C night this June-July. Perhaps even 80%.
Really? wow, thats high. I thought i had less chances of winning. Im in, then. If it hits the 20c mark in any night of those 2 months, i lose. Im gonna be wishing for that warm night NOT TO HAPPEN in those 2 months, my only reliable months of the year in wich the 20c is less likely to happen.
Although his short and medium term forecasts often leave much to be desired, I believe he is correct in the notion that Little Ice Age patterns and weather are appearing and have gradually increased their grip in the past few years. Solar activity trends also support this; in 20 years or so there's a good chance sunspot activity will be pretty much dead.
I don't there has been enough evidence for any cooling yet.
Unless La Niña / El Niño are not independent but just reflective of global or regional temperatures rather than the cause (which I suspect the PDO and variation Atlantic cycles are).
Looking at the first graph under "Update" there doesn't appear to be a change in El Niño / La Niña cycles (MEI). The effect of changes in the sun's output is in the last graph (doesn't look like there's been a dramatic change.)
Come visit me in Poland. Our summers might be the most pleasant winters you've ever experienced in your life ;-)
I would gladly exchange your summers for our summers, but I wouldn't exchange your summers for our winters. Our winters are still cooler than your summers.
(I'm assuming your summers are more or less like Warsaw's, but perhaps you live in a relatively high place, then we should see).
What I was trying to convey is not that ENSO reflects climate, but rather that the simple fact of such a huge area of the Pacific being cooler than normal would contribute to a global cooling. There does seem to be a long-term relationship, congruent with global temperatures and the PDO (cold PDO causing more frequent and intense La Ninas, and vice versa). In any case in a warming scenario one would expect warm anomalies to be dominant over time, not the opposite, since this is the definition of the ENSO cycles we use. Of course one cycle has nothing to do with a long term trend, and one must look globally. It's the same with the sunspot cycle - one must make conclusions based on how strong or weak the 11-year-cycle's maxima and minima are, not the individual cycles. In other words, think of the difference between the Dalton Minimum vs. the Modern Maximum, and the short-term maximum in 2003 vs. the minimum in 2009. I just wanted to make that clear, since using the 11-year or short-term fluctuation has some currency in weather forums nowadays .
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we already lost our autumn!! June and July are my hope for CONSISNTENTLY cold days. Or, lets put it this way: consistently NOT WARM days! Like, an entire month withouth a 25 celsius day or a 20 celsius night like we got a lot in May, and of course in April!
...i just wanna know how high are my chances of winning. If it never hits 20 i win, if it does...i lose.
. Im in, then. If it hits the 20c mark in any night of those 2 months, i lose. Im gonna be wishing for that warm night NOT TO HAPPEN in those 2 months, my only reliable months of the year in wich the 20c is less likely to happen.
