Originally Posted by RWood
As an aside, at least one of two predictions (if you're expecting a relatively cool 2013) for 2013 will be wrong:
Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013
You may well both turn out to be wrong. Or are you not actually willing to make a prediction for 2013?
be wrong? I see some overconfidence there. Whatever happened to "letting the planet speak for itself"
? I also see you're even more confident than the very people who issued the forecast!:
It's an interesting, although inherently difficult exercise to predict how short-term temperatures will change
And as an aside, GISS is just about the worst global temperature dataset there is. UAH is quite superior, though I'm sure if any records will be broken by a large margin all sets of data would show it. If I'm going to make any predictions it's not going to relate to GISS readings.
I take any record-hot predictions with the same grain of salt as I take with predictions that arctic sea ice will set a new record low or crash into oblivion. As for my own prediction, I do predict that 2013 will have a cool(ish) world temperature "despite the El Nino", but my prediction only goes out to the winter at this point, Dec-Feb 2013 worldwide.
Beyond that at I have no clue as to what the weather will be anywhere, much less globally (and that's what we're measuring here, global weather; over many years that's climate). For 2012 I predict garden-variety global temperatures similar to what we had in 2011. By this time, it had better heat up quickly if any near-record predictions are to hold true...
On another note, what's your