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Old 07-13-2012, 07:15 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,120 posts, read 2,857,105 times
Reputation: 1841

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Quote:
Originally Posted by RWood View Post
As an aside, at least one of two predictions (if you're expecting a relatively cool 2013) for 2013 will be wrong:

Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013

You may well both turn out to be wrong. Or are you not actually willing to make a prediction for 2013?
Will be wrong? I see some overconfidence there. Whatever happened to "letting the planet speak for itself" ? I also see you're even more confident than the very people who issued the forecast!:

Quote:
It's an interesting, although inherently difficult exercise to predict how short-term temperatures will change
And as an aside, GISS is just about the worst global temperature dataset there is. UAH is quite superior, though I'm sure if any records will be broken by a large margin all sets of data would show it. If I'm going to make any predictions it's not going to relate to GISS readings.

I take any record-hot predictions with the same grain of salt as I take with predictions that arctic sea ice will set a new record low or crash into oblivion. As for my own prediction, I do predict that 2013 will have a cool(ish) world temperature "despite the El Nino", but my prediction only goes out to the winter at this point, Dec-Feb 2013 worldwide.

Beyond that at I have no clue as to what the weather will be anywhere, much less globally (and that's what we're measuring here, global weather; over many years that's climate). For 2012 I predict garden-variety global temperatures similar to what we had in 2011. By this time, it had better heat up quickly if any near-record predictions are to hold true...

On another note, what's your prediction?
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Old 07-13-2012, 03:39 PM
 
Location: Wellington and North of South
4,107 posts, read 3,077,212 times
Reputation: 1752
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
Will be wrong? I see some overconfidence there. Whatever happened to "letting the planet speak for itself" ? I also see you're even more confident than the very people who issued the forecast!:

And as an aside, GISS is just about the worst global temperature dataset there is. UAH is quite superior, though I'm sure if any records will be broken by a large margin all sets of data would show it. If I'm going to make any predictions it's not going to relate to GISS readings.

I take any record-hot predictions with the same grain of salt as I take with predictions that arctic sea ice will set a new record low or crash into oblivion. As for my own prediction, I do predict that 2013 will have a cool(ish) world temperature "despite the El Nino", but my prediction only goes out to the winter at this point, Dec-Feb 2013 worldwide.

Beyond that at I have no clue as to what the weather will be anywhere, much less globally (and that's what we're measuring here, global weather; over many years that's climate). For 2012 I predict garden-variety global temperatures similar to what we had in 2011. By this time, it had better heat up quickly if any near-record predictions are to hold true...

On another note, what's your prediction?
The "will" refers to the fact that the prediction I gave the link for - and your earlier remark "I doubt we'll hear any musings from RWood in 2013 about how cool it is worldwide despite the El Nino" has an unsubtle hint that you're expecting 2013 to be coolish for an El Nino!. - would be mutually contradictory, and there as a matter of common logiuc at least one of them would turn out to be wrong. Your latest comment is more nuanced and changes the relationship of the statements.

I am happy to accept data of the kind presented here:

State of the Climate | Global Analysis | October 2009

My only expectation is that 2013 will be warmer than 2011 and 2012. But I don't underestimate short time-scale variabilities, or delaying effects due to ocean heat storage.

I have long since set myself a date of 2020 to start collecting scalps on a variety of forums from "coolists" in their varioius guises.
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Old 07-13-2012, 05:46 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,120 posts, read 2,857,105 times
Reputation: 1841
Quote:
Originally Posted by RWood View Post
I have long since set myself a date of 2020 to start collecting scalps on a variety of forums from "coolists" in their varioius guises.
Oooh...it looks like I've been marked for your long-awaited vengeance . Seriously, I don't mind and I look forward to the future when you might "collect scalps". It's also possible that your scalp might be the one being collected, but as we all emphasize here we'll have to wait and see. Looking at the multi-year trends, whether warming or cooling, is advisable as opposed to banking everything on month-to-month variations.

Also, I think you might be confusing my statements. I was trying to convey that saying it "will" be the hottest year on record or much warmer (conveying 100% certainty as opposed to "may" or "might") is an overconfident prediction. That doesn't conflict with the "coolish for El Nino" prediction, though I was talking more about your own biases than about the actual temperature (but I was referring to both).
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