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About the snow in southern Canada melting.... in regards to southern Manitoba westward to Alberta not the case. Another couple of systems will add to the snowfall totals from Calgary to Regina to Winnipeg. I forecast for eastern ND and northwestern MN and we have been on the fence with a general 2-3 inch snow cover present over our region...generally north of a Minot to Fargo to St Cloud line. While south of this region will see quite warm readings in early Dec north of this closer to the Canadian border in the upper midwest it will be warmer than normal as I have some low to mid 30s forecast for a couple days this weekend in Grand Forks ND.
Our local climate expert in our NWS office (Grand Forks) suggest at least for our area warmer than normal early half of the month but signs point toward a significant cold outbreak later half of the month.
About the snow in southern Canada melting.... in regards to southern Manitoba westward to Alberta not the case. Another couple of systems will add to the snowfall totals from Calgary to Regina to Winnipeg. I forecast for eastern ND and northwestern MN and we have been on the fence with a general 2-3 inch snow cover present over our region...generally north of a Minot to Fargo to St Cloud line. While south of this region will see quite warm readings in early Dec north of this closer to the Canadian border in the upper midwest it will be warmer than normal as I have some low to mid 30s forecast for a couple days this weekend in Grand Forks ND.
Our local climate expert in our NWS office (Grand Forks) suggest at least for our area warmer than normal early half of the month but signs point toward a significant cold outbreak later half of the month.
I was watching the Weather Channel and reading some of the blogs...they are saying maybe near 70's F in the front range of the Rockies by early next week. I think most of the north USA east of the Dakotas will be hard pressed to see snowcover for the next two weeks at least.
The Pacific Coast from Point Conception northward is progged to be on the recieving end of a series of very wet systems. Not a whole lot of cold with these, so we won't be seeing much of a snow pack below about 8500 feet to the south and 4000 or so feet around Mt. Baker in Washington.
The Sunday Punch will actually arrive Saturday but it will be just as unpleasant with some orographically favored spots in northern California and southern Oregon set to get up to 12 inches of rain for the day. I don't expect such an extreme rainfall event to continue beyond Sunday (12/2) but we will be under a continuing threat of heavy showers embedded in a wet pattern that'll last clear beyond the middle of the month.
I was watching the Weather Channel and reading some of the blogs...they are saying maybe near 70's F in the front range of the Rockies by early next week. I think most of the north USA east of the Dakotas will be hard pressed to see snowcover for the next two weeks at least.
I agree...the 06z gfs out to dec 15th has a more or less zonal flow (close to it at least along the Canadian border).... not expecting much additional snowfall in my local area....so will keep our meager 2 or so inches here locally but none down in South Dakota into southern MN. one bright side I saw -49F in central Yukon so with the good snowcover in the Canadian prairies once the pattern can change to expect it to turn colder again in the Upper Midwest. I will leave the eastern and southern states forecasting to other more knowledgeable folks.
I was watching the Weather Channel and reading some of the blogs...they are saying maybe near 70's F in the front range of the Rockies by early next week. I think most of the north USA east of the Dakotas will be hard pressed to see snowcover for the next two weeks at least.
We have a full-fledged disaster in the making up here. Last summer was the hottest and driest in history and most of the lakes dried up or were emptied for irrigation. There was very little snow in the mountains last year and what little we have had this year is disappearing. Another warm, dry winter will undoubtedly make for a hellacious fire season next year, and everything is pointing to this disaster. The cold weather loons had better enjoy their little nip of cool weather, because this is coming their way.
They have simply run out of wriggle room. It's easy to hype cold when there are weeks and months before reckoning. When winter actually...well, it's supposed to begin and they are faced with the reality that they have busted out their Winter Forecast, THREE years in a row, they are doing some serious backpedaling. The El Nino is practically gone, and Mother Nature has a vivid memory of all the months (THIRTY-TWO OF THEM NOW) worldwide with no month below normal. We appear to be in a vicious cycle of positive reinforcement where it just gets warmer and warmer. Look at what is happening in the large continental masses in the U.S. The cold weather hypes have forgotten some basic tenets while mentally masturbating over their beautiful color 300+ GFS models that would gleefully predict anything from the Rapture to -50° in the middle of a heat wave. We must simply face the fact that a large portion of the country is going to have a warm and very dry winter, and the disaster for the drought plagued areas is accumulating exponentially.
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