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I noticed that our cold snaps seem to be much further than average (intense) and longer lasting than our warm spells in summer ever are.
I worked out the anomaly from average of this cold snap, and tried to see what numbers it would give if it was July, and those anomalies were above average temperature anomalies, in a heatwave.
In that case, if this was July, we would have had 10 consecutive days here exceeding 20°C, and 4 exceeding 24°C. (Don't forget the avg. high here is about 18.5°C). On 16th, 18th, and 19th the temperature would have exceeded 25°C. This has not happened here in a summer month since July 2009, however.
The overnight low on 16th would have been no less than 18.7°C, higher than any we even recorded in July 2006, the so called "hottest" month.
But in reality any "warm spells" in the last 6 years have been less than half this length and also nowhere near the intensity of this any many other recent cold snaps like January & December 2010. In fact our warm spells in recent years have been 2-4 days long at most. I wonder when we will get the next proper warm spell to balance this out? This year I hope!
Isn't that always the case though, the cold winter spells are further from average than hot summer spells? This table only goes up to 2006, but compared to the 1971-2000 average July 1983 (our then-hottest month on record) was 3C above average whilst January 1963 (the coldest month of the 20th century) was 6.3C below.
Well, these are the averages I am comparing the anomaly to. Buxton's not really much cooler than sea level places in summer considering it is some 1,000ft higher. I also didn't realise it gets that much sun. The numbers from Harpur Hill are under reading by more than 10%.
Awesome thread, I love statistical experiments Wanted to rep you but not working.
January 1985 coldwave in Nice
Month averages: 1.7/8.6°C (vs. 5.3/13.1°C average) i.e. departure from normal -3.6/-4.5°C
"Translated" onto a hot August, that would yield a 24.1/32.2°C month. Really hot for Nice but not insane. August 2003 was about 23.7/31.1°C so pretty close to that.
On a daily basis though that's a different story, i.e.:
A few selected days with their departure from normal:
5 Jan 1985: -1.2/3°C (Departure from normal -5.9/-10.1)
7 Jan 1985: -2.6/2.9°C (DFN -7.9/-10.2)
8 Jan 1985: -7/-1.8°C (DFN -12.3/-14.9) *Coldest daytime high ever; coldest day (mean temp) ever (if I'm not mistaken) - might also be the only subfreezing high ever recorded here
9 Jan 1985: -7.2/3°C (DFN -12.5/-10.1) *All-time record low (I'm sure about this one)
Reversing the DFN and applying them to August days (20.5/27.7°C average):
5 Aug XXXX: 26.4/37.8°C (that would be 0.1°C above our all time record high)
7 Aug XXXX: 28.4/37.9°C (that would be approximately equal to our all time record warmest low, can't remember exactly)
8 Aug XXXX: 32.8/42.6°C *Anyone starting to sweat a little?
9 Aug XXXX: 33/37.8°C *I can picture a really nice dewpoint here
Buxton's summers are like Early Autumn in the Southeast. For London if this was a heatwave our day temperatures would be at a constant 31c.
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Wanted to rep you but not working.
