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While The Dakotas are not experiencing a warm "Blast" it will be interesting if we get our usual May cold "Blast". I don't think we have seen our last freeze or snowfall from this winter/spring
I suspect we still have at least a week of very cold weather that will show up in May.
Especially since I am out of wood pellets for the pellet heater and non will be available until Sept. I am also out of horse bedding pellets.
Note to other pellet stove users. I have found Horse bedding pellets (Equine pine bedding) can be used but you have to keep a close eye on them as they burn much hotter than the recommended pellets and the setting has to be kept as low as possible to keep from damaging the stove. Do work in an emergency, but if used do not leave a burning stove unattended. I had to use them for the last month. Had no major problems, But did not leave the house either and kept readjusting the stove settings.
Hopefully when we get the expect May cold blast, the electric heaters will work for me.
In the mean time it is almost unbearably hot here. Time to turn on the A/C
So what happens when you have an Upper Level Low spinning and spinning in the atmosphere? A ton of moisture is possible. The counterclockwise spin will tap into some southern moisture plus spawn off coastal lows if positioning is right..
Here's HPC precip forecast next 7 days based on what models are showing..
...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES FROM THE 12Z-18Z/26 CYCLE...
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED
WITH A CUTOFF SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MID-MS VALLEY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE ROADBLOCK IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STRONG UPPER RIDGING
AS PART OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER LABRADOR WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OR
MERGING CLOSED LOWS NEAR 40N/45W.
ANOTHER FEATURE IN THE MIX WILL BE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TOWARD FLORIDA... WHICH IS FORECAST
TO INDUCE MODEST CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE GFS IS MOST EAGER TO PHASE THIS ENERGY INTO THE FARTHER EAST CLOSED LOW THAN THE ECMWF /WITH ITS SLOWER SOLUTION/...
There's actually more support for this huge snow event than this pattern change to huge warmth you've been harping on for the past two weeks,
However, at this point I'm about as confident as one can be at this stage that an upper-level low is coming into the Eastern U.S. with record cold and very rare or unprecedented snowfall. The location, track, duration, and the exact intensity of this storm is less certain.
Great point about the support given the recent trends/pattern.
Can you believe the consistancy now. Latest GFS12z just out again shows snow from Plains to MidWest.
Does anyone know how farmers are coping with either the temps, snow or saturated grounds?
Here's the Latest GFS12z for this Thursday May 2nd. DGEX, EURO, GFS all show some snow from plains to midwest.
As usual, and as we all know. This is not a forecast, this is not set in stone. As far as if I believe it?... Its hard to ignore the consistancy and the multiple model similar solution. But I'm leaning towards higher elevations and upper midwest for now. Not southern plains for snow
Great point about the support given the recent trends/pattern.
Can you believe the consistancy now. Latest GFS12z just out again shows snow from Plains to MidWest.
Does anyone know how farmers are coping with either the temps, snow or saturated grounds?
Here's the Latest GFS12z for this Thursday May 2nd. DGEX, EURO, GFS all show some snow from plains to midwest.
As usual, and as we all know. This is not a forecast, this is not set in stone. As far as if I believe it?... Its hard to ignore the consistancy and the multiple model similar solution. But I'm leaning towards higher elevations and upper midwest for now. Not southern plains for snow
A few weeks back I saw a few larger farms tilling snow into the soil. But that is the only activity I've seen.
Typical planting date here begind between May 15 and June 1.
They may be able to make it, but it does not look very promising. I suspect the ground will be too muddy for any heavy equipment. The small home farms with small tractors may be able to get in some planting.
I plan to set out some cold hardy plants such as Asparagus next week. I don't have an asparagus bed started here yet and this may be a good time to start one.
Thought that doesn't kick in until end of May early June?
it varies from year to year. it has started as early as late April or can be delayed until mid June. but the overall average start day is may 20 so if it does start next week it will be waaaay ahead of scheduled.
FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REVERT TO THE WEATHER MUCH OF THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED THUS FAR
THIS SPRING...COLD AND WET. 00Z ECMWF IS ESPECIALLY DISHEARTENING TO SUNSHINE/WARMTH LOVERS AS NEARLY CONTINUAL RAIN FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOOSTED
POPS UP INTO LIKELY CATEGORY MUCH OF THE SE 1/2 ON WED BASED ON
00Z GFS/ECMWF AND LOWERED A FEW MAX TEMPS THURSDAY BECAUSE OF
ECMWF. GFS NOT QUITE AS WET/COOL...BUT STILL REPRESENTS QUITE A
CHANGE FROM THE WEATHER THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED NEXT FEW DAYS. IF GFS COMES AROUND TOWARD ECMWF POPS WILL NEED RAISING THU AND FRIDAY AND TEMPS LOWERED.
Thought that doesn't kick in until end of May early June?
I think it does, but locations vary. Like my hometown, the rainy season lasts 10-11 months, but 20 miles west the rainy season lasts the usual June to November or the southern coast of PR where the rainy season is a few months long
Actual high temps today. Check out the CT valley. Pretty common in the spring time to warm up much more than the coast or other areas.
All in all it was mostly a normal Spring day. Most of Rhode Island and Southeastern CT didnt get out of the 50s today.
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High Temps April 27, 2013
