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Old 02-04-2013, 05:52 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Even though it might not feel like it right now, midway through winter, Spring is just around the corner.

Lets discuss your thoughts on the upcoming season.

Last edited by Cambium; 02-04-2013 at 06:02 AM.. Reason: Fixed Title
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Old 02-04-2013, 06:01 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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This was Decembers update from CPC. Januarys should be coming out today.

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

ENSO-neutral conditions continued during December 2012. Equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were positive in the western Pacific, near zero in the central Pacific, and slightly negative in much of the eastern Pacific
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Old 02-04-2013, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Yorkshire, England
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I saw my first daffodil on 31st January this year, but this was by a main road and on a south-facing embankment which gets the sun a little more directly. Most daffodils are just stalks about 5-8cm high.
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Old 02-04-2013, 11:37 AM
 
Location: London, UK
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I heard spring/late winter in the UK will start cold.
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Old 02-04-2013, 09:46 PM
 
Location: Finland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Even though it might not feel like it right now, midway through winter, Spring is just around the corner.

Lets discuss your thoughts on the upcoming season.
Yeah, it really doesn't feel that way yet. February is on average the coldest month here, due to the freezing of the Baltic Sea, the sun is not yet strong enough to warm up the days sufficiently, and February is usually quite cloudy as well.
It also feels that the winter has already been longer than usual, as December was very cold, while January was close to average.

The medium-range forcast predicted no big anomalities for the first half of February, and it seems to be that way. Highs at freezing the next days and lows around -5C. Then it's getting colder again, but no biggie. Lows in single figures except for friday.
The latter half of the month is supposed to be well colder than on average, but we'll see.

But on the actual subject, March is a very unpredictable month here. It can be frigidly cold, in fact may be the coldest month of the winter, as was latest in 2005. Or it can be relatively sunny and warm compared to February. Most years the first half of March is practically winter, days struggle to get above freezing, nights are well below.
What I'd like from March, is that the latter half would be nice and warm. Or, you know, warm by our standards. After being used to subzero temperatures during a long winter, that nice sunshine and even just some 8C/46F feels great.
Haven't really looked into any CFS models yet, perhaps it's still a bit early for me.

I don't know if I've told you guys before, but usually I think March is one of the most depressing months. Central Europe and the US is rapidly embracing spring with flowers blooming and warmth, while I watch the snowpack melt away painfully slowly.
Well, psychologically it's still a ok month overall. The longer days (today the length of day is 8 hours 16 minutes, on Mar 5 it's almost 11 hours), March has on average more sunshine hours than Jan & Feb combined, and the feeling "soon this is over" comforts a bit. But still every year I fear that March 2005 will be repeated.
April and May is so far away yet, that I'm not hoping for anything but sun and warmth.

Perhaps this was just a lot of unnecessary ranting, but this is what I was thinking of.
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Old 02-04-2013, 11:19 PM
 
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
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Spring doesn't usually start for another 2 months here.
Started a whole month early last year. Hope that doesn't become normal.
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:02 AM
 
Location: St Paul's Bay, Malta
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I'm hoping we get a nice dry warm spring with lots of sunshine, I'm fed up of the gloom & cold of winter now...
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Old 02-05-2013, 05:37 AM
 
Location: Buxton, England
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flamingGalah! View Post
I'm hoping we get a nice dry warm spring with lots of sunshine, I'm fed up of the gloom & cold of winter now...
Hear, hear and with all this bloody snow going outside to town is practically dangerous, worrying about slipping and sliding everywhere, falling over, having to walk around like some doddery old geriatric. I think there's been about 6 months of below average temperatures now, time for a change to a milder regime.
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Old 02-05-2013, 07:33 AM
 
Location: London, UK
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flamingGalah! View Post
I'm hoping we get a nice dry warm spring with lots of sunshine, I'm fed up of the gloom & cold of winter now...
Less of the dry you know what happened last year! Drought turned into floods so lets just hope for a warm spring.
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Old 02-05-2013, 08:51 AM
 
Location: Laurentia
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My hope this year is that Spring can come in cool and gradually across the hemisphere, aging like fine wine. This contrasts with what most Americans experienced last year, which was a very forceful and early Spring that turned into an early and long Summer. Other parts of the hemisphere experienced quite the opposite. Typically there are widely varying warm and cold areas of the hemisphere, so a "fine wine" Spring happening across the hemisphere is quite rare, but one can hope, right?

I have a few "hunches" (or guesses) for Spring in the U.S. My gut calls for a consistently cool and wet Spring in New England and the Northwest, a consistently warm and dry Spring for the Southwest, and my gut feeling is for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic to start cool and end warm (relative to normal).

These are just guesses, not a serious forecast, but I still like to put them out and compare them to the actual results.

For what it's worth (which isn't much) my gut feeling for Summer is for a very cool pattern to dominate the Eastern U.S. in June, persisting through early July, followed by massive heat waves from mid July to mid August just after many heat-lovers give up on Summer 2013. "Something for everyone" you could call it.
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