Winter 2013-14 Thread — Northern Hemisphere (snow, warm, ice, record)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

New Hamsphire and eastern Vermont are still cold. Perhaps they will warm up soon?

Not sure, can you post a short discussion from NWS Gray Maine or BTV? I'm curious. They might have escaped this warm up. GFS says I'll be at freezing by 7am tomorrow morning so they have a small window before the front comes through

[Mac15]

Looks like the easterly for next week might be back on board. Party time!!

[Cambium]

Also... sometimes we look at our maps and forget there's microclimates and towns within all those temps.
I'm hearing Maine roads are being shut down from flooding and New Hampshire from Ice. Some temps are 32 and under still so there's some heavy ice falling.

Maine DOT is asking motorists to keep 911 lines available for emergencies. DOT crews will be working through overnight to treat roads tonight.
https://twitter.com/WCSH6/status/422063004562509825


This is Vermont.
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/statu...33868972376064

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Not sure, can you post a short discussion from NWS Gray Maine or BTV? I'm curious. They might have escaped this warm up. GFS says I'll be at freezing by 7am tomorrow morning so they have a small window before the front comes through

The NWS forecast has a low of 37F for Danbury, 35F for Keene. Here's the discussion from NWS Burlington:



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1222 PM EST SATURDAY...ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO FORECAST
WITH 1230 UPDATE DUE TO A FEW ISOLATED STRIKES UPSTREAM...OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE ON TEMP FORECAST TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTERS NUMBERS. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO GUST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS EXPECTED. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF FOG WITH WARM
TEMPS OVER SNOW COVERED LAND AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
PASSUMPSIC RIVER VALLEYS UNTIL 18Z. TEMPS REMAIN JUST BELOW OR
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THAT AREA. ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE
FOR 930 UPDATE THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INITIAL WARM FRONTAL RAIN BAND HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM SW- NE DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...BRINGING WITH IT
LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN AMTS UP TO 0.1" ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GREEN MTN SPINE AND IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR NRN NY.
HAVE RECEIVED SPOTTER REPORT OF ICY ROAD CONDITIONS IN THE STOWE
AREA WITH SEVERAL ACCIDENTS AS A RESULT. THE SAME IS LIKELY TRUE
ACROSS MUCH OF ERN VT GIVEN AIR AND PAVEMENT TEMPS STILL BELOW
FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING AS EXPECTED...BUT STILL SOME
READINGS IN THE 20S ERN VT FROM ORANGE COUNTY NWD INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. MOST SITES IN NY ARE NOW AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THREAT OF ICY CONDITIONS SHOULD END IN NY FIRST.
WILL HANG ONTO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BOTH FOR NY AND VT THRU
15Z. WILL SEE IMPACTS NEXT 1-3 HOURS FOLLOWED BY RAPID
IMPROVEMENT AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 40S.

[nei]

warmed up to 56F in Chicopee. That was sudden, I should go for a walk outside. Lull in the rain for the moment. Dew point 56F

[chicagogeorge]

GFS is flip back to winter mode, and aligning itself with the Euro and Canadian models, not to mention the JMA




Thaw will be over in about 3 days for us....





JB calling for an eastern storm (2 of them) next week, and a cold "over the top" origin Arctic outbreak by the end of the month. No folks, winter is not over.

[Mac15]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Also... sometimes we look at our maps and forget there's microclimates and towns within all those temps.
I'm hearing Maine roads are being shut down from flooding and New Hampshire from Ice. Some temps are 32 and under still so there's some heavy ice falling.

Maine DOT is asking motorists to keep 911 lines available for emergencies. DOT crews will be working through overnight to treat roads tonight.
https://twitter.com/WCSH6/status/422063004562509825


This is Vermont.
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/statu...33868972376064

Was black ice here this morning nearly fell in a heap a couple of times. Not very good.

[Cambium]

3:45pm recent and current lightning strikes. Unreal.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

The NWS forecast has a low of 37F for Danbury, 35F for Keene. Here's the discussion from NWS Burlington:
.

Thanks.. and speaking of Danbury... Here's the EURO12z data for them. I'm still not seeing extreme temps either way for over a week. But if you look at the last time frame here you can see the 850mb temps starting to tank. After 19th is our chance for that real cold air to come back.

[Cambium]

Almost looks like models starting to agree on another shot of cold. Timing and locations are off still.

Here's EURO12z 850mb temps anomalies Hr 192 (19th) and 216 (20th). Northeast Very cold! But GFS has it happening 2 days before and not as cold. meanwhile Euro shows the Mid Atlantic getting it too 2 days before.

So they are seeing another arctic drop but timing and location isn't happening yet.