Winter 2013-14 Thread — Northern Hemisphere (snowfall, record, temperature, night)

[Cambium]

Sunday-Tuesday Storm Update::

So it looks like models converging on an overrunning precip event with a low forming off the coast on Monday. They all trended colder as well but the rain/snow line will be around the Philly area..

It's all about where the front will be with this one!

Take a look at what the EURO00z says for Philly and NYC.

Keep in mind, the precip shown is for previous 6hrs not that time frame. So like Philly would be rain to ice, to snow here.

NYC temps stay below freezing entire time except beginning so that's 1.45" qpf of all rain/mix at start but mostly all snow.

Right now I'm telling people don't change plans yet but work them around Monday.

[CCc girl]

no wind, it almost seems warmer out than yesterday..........

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by dhdh

That's a great forecast in Celsius

I so wish it was in celcius. That forecast has anomalies of 20F. At this point in the year our avg high/low is 47/30F. Standard deviation on high/low temp at this point in the year is 10F/7.7F. The low temps forecasted are around 2.3 standard deviations off the mean temp (basically around 2.2% chance of occurance). When was the last time Nice had temps that far off the averages? That is what I hate about our winter continental climate: the very high deviations off the mean in winter.

[Adi from the Brunswicks]

tom77: 40 C is an incinerating & lethal 105 F. I for one hope it never touches 90 more than 1 week this year. High heating bills should be compensated by low A/C bills so that energy expenditures dont go through the roof.

Snowing lightly today. By tonight, we should reach a grand total of 65.5" for the year, making this winter as snowy as 2010 .

[Cambium]

Do any of you remember these storms?

Couple of NESIS maps of March snowfalls.

1993 was #1 on the Top 52 high impact ranking
2009 was #48
2007 was #41
2013 was #39



Reason why I ask is because if it plays out like these models are showing past couple days, it might end up on NESIS high impact scale but NOT as far south as the maps above.. Have to see what next few days says.

[Cambium]

9:45am radar and metars who's reporting the snow. And Snow reports last hour. Some locations getting heavy snow. But shouldn't mount to much. General T-2"

Snowing here now

[chicagogeorge]

Latest GFS snow fall totals come down to 8 inches

[Cambium]

Nice! That was fast. lol

NWS Seattle

"This graph shows how the Washington Cascades snowpack has recovered to near normal during the last few weeks."

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Do any of you remember these storms?

Couple of NESIS maps of March snowfalls.

1993 was #1 on the Top 52 high impact ranking
2009 was #48
2007 was #41
2013 was #39



Reason why I ask is because if it plays out like these models are showing past couple days, it might end up on NESIS high impact scale but NOT as far south as the maps above.. Have to see what next few days says.

I certainly remember the 1993 event for my area. Lots of snow here. All work cancelled. Everyone in my hood at the time gathered at the local watering hole and had a great night.

[Cambium]

March 4 Storm Update:::

Let me put a few pictures with NWS Boston discussion so you understand a few things more importantly why we don't get details until couple days before...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY /WELL OUT IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND NOT EVEN YET SAMPLED/ SEEMINGLY BECOMES STRETCHED AND ELONGATED EASTWARD THROUGH A DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...POTENTIALLY INTERACTING AND MAYBE EVEN PHASING WITH ENERGY OF ARCTIC-ORIGIN. SOUND FAMILIAR?

Yellow circle is where the energy is with this next storm. There is no data from there that goes into the models so that's why timing and track is never exact this far out. That's why they sometimes send planes out to grab some data from there.

You'll have that moving across, gulf moisture interacting and a polar jet as well. All converging together March 3-5 timeframe




CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC-SETUP AND LESSONS-LEARNED FROM THIS WINTER SEASON...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF SATURDAY/S FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OFFSHORE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN REGIONS OF BETTER BAROCLINICITY ALONG WHICH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESS /GIVEN SUPPORT VIA ENSEMBLE MEANS/.

There's the front HPC places it. Cold to north. Seasonable to south of it and waves of Low pressure (moisture) rides along it.




HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BELIEVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT WILL IMPACT SNE. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE H85 LOW WHERE LIKELY DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE N/E QUADRANT COLLOCATED WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WILL YIELD POSSIBLE WEST-TO-EAST SNOW- BANDING /HAVENT WE SEEN THIS BEFORE?/. IN OTHER WORDS...LOOKING AT AN OVER-RUNNING SCENARIO. H85 TRACK WILL ALSO IMPACT THERMAL FIELDS AND WHETHER TRANSITION ZONES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED OR PERHAPS IF IT REMAINS ALL SNOW. NO CERTAINTY IN SPECIFICS. THINGS ARE LIKELY TO WOBBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS. WITH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE DIRECTION OF ITS RESPECTIVE WET-BULB VALUE. WINDS MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE TO CONSIDER.

Warm Moisture rides over the cold air along the front. Very interesting setup that can produce big totals if things go right.