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The United States is making exciting changes to how computer models will be developed in the future to support the nation’s weather and climate forecast system. NOAA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have joined forces to help the nation’s weather and climate modeling scientists achieve mutual benefits through more strategic collaboration, shared resources and information
NOAA is taking steps to establish a new Earth Prediction Innovation Center, made possible by the recent reauthorization of the Weather and Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017. The virtual Center will enable the research community to develop new and emerging model technology that can be quickly transitioned into forecast operations at NOAA’s National Weather Service. The operational global Earth system models will be made available to the research community to support scientific and research work.
“The Earth Prediction Innovation Center, UFS, and the joint NOAA/NCAR agreement are critical elements that will position the U.S. to regain its standing as a leader on the international earth-system modeling stage. The improved modeling capability will improve our life-saving watches and warnings,” Jacobs added.
With a new stage set for community modeling, NOAA is poised to upgrade the Global Forecasting System in the months ahead with the addition of a new dynamic core, called the FV3. The FV3-based GFS will be the first NOAA application derived from community modeling and will improve forecast accuracy.
"regain leadership" in the model system. HA. When were you ahead? 1970s?
American weather model upping its game
By Geoff Bansen, Digital Meteorologist
A new challenger is entering the ring.
If you follow weather enthusiasts on social media, or perhaps you yourself are one, you're probably aware that there has been a long running debate about which is the superior weather model: the ECMWF "Euro" model, or the GFS "American" model.
The event that largely brought this discussion to the forefront of weather talk was Superstorm Sandy, in which the Euro predicted the storm's path quicker and more accurately than its counterpart from across the pond. This led to a heightened sense of urgency for the U.S. to beef up its model capabilities.
Legislators have since increased funding to NOAA, which allowed them to develop a new model: the FV3-GFS. While it has actually been available for about the last year, it is now scheduled to become fully operational next month.
So what will this new weather model bring to the table?
To start, it will have an increased resolution. Both the Euro and old GFS are global models, meaning they go out farther in time and cover a larger area, yet have lower resolutions than other models. This often means that weather events will look smoother and more blob-like. The FV3-GFS will produce more realistic products, almost like a camera with more megapixels. It will also improve how the model handles the strength and track of developing tropical storms.
To say that the old GFS is or was utterly poor would be untrue, as there have been many storms where it has outperformed the Euro - every model has both pros and cons. But the Euro has done better on a more consistent basis. Experts say that even with this shiny new version, the GFS is still not the best model out there, but that it has certainly narrowed the gap with these improvements.
quote:
For the first time in about 40 years, the guts of the US model got swapped out for something new today. The upgrade brings us a new “Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere” (or FV3) dynamical core, which simulates the basic atmospheric physics at the heart of this endeavor, a change that has been in the works for a while.
link: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019...ftware-update/
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What a joke NOAA is.
Upgrade to the US weather forecast model is here
