Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Temperature
Over the forecast period temperatures should above the Central England Temperature (CET) average.
Precipitation
Slightly below in the north and north west, below average in the south east. Confidence is low.
1/10 to 7/10 Rain heavy at times is expected to push north across much of the country during the first few days of the month. Once this clears away it is likely to become mostly dry in southern and central regions. The north and north west may remain more changeable. Temperatures are expected to remain above the seasonal average with winds coming from a south or south westerly direction for much of the time.
8/10 to 14/10
The south and south east should have a good deal of dry weather with temperatures remaining above average. Possibly warm for the time of year. Further north and west very windy and more changeable weather is likely to develop with outbreaks of rain returning from the west at times. Despite this temperatures in the north should also be close to or slightly above the average for mid-October.
15/10 to 31/10
During the first part of the period cloud and rain may push down from the north west, but on the whole a good deal of dry weather is expected. Temperatures probably trending down back towards the late October average bringing an increasing risk of overnight frost. Possibly more changeable with wet and windy weather at times in the north west. During the last part of the month confidence is very low but a change to significantly colder conditions is considered possible.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT TUE OCT 1 2013
MAJOR STORY IS AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AS THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW BUCKLES AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROF.
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RESULTS IN SE CO. THE INTENSIFYING
CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN INTENSIFYING BAROCLINIC ZONE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE BASIC
DEVELOPMENTS ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE AND THE FORECASTS OF
TEMPERATURES NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
NAM AND MORNING GFS ARE SHOWING THICKNESS VALUES WELL INTO THE SNOW RANGE OVER MOST OF OUR CWA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
Sunday — 15°F from 6 to 8 pm
Monday — 16°F from 6 to 8 pm
Today — 16°F from 6 to 8 pm, 23°F from 5 to 9 pm
I know some folks who usually see 5 degree ranges are looking at our drops thinking WOW. lol Meanwhile it's just common for us to see this time of year..... but always fun to see the 15+ ranges. I think I might go to upper 40s.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013
WITH THE 1020S HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DIURNAL SWINGS OF AROUND 30
DEGREES POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTOR IS IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE
EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY MODELED.
The environment for active Friday/Friday night t-storms is laid out in the composite off the Storm Prediction Center's rendering of the National Weather Service's SREF model. The red areas are regions of high atmospheric energy (CAPE)--areas where air is buoyant and apt to ascend producing clouds & t-storms---while the wind feathers are plotted in areas of strong vertical wind shear. Together, these variables lay the foundation for potentially active late week t-storms
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I think I might go to upper 40s. 
