Fall 2013 Thread — Northern Hemisphere (Cincinnati, snow, warm, records)
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That dramatic map above doesn’t seem in line with forecasted temps late next week, at least from the Weather Channel. I know AccWeather is legendary in their dramatics – but even for them that’s a massive dip in the jet.
The highs by next Thursday are seem seasonable in the upper Midwest (30’s and 40’s F) to the Gulf Coast (70’s F). The lows look close to normal as well. In fact, no locations below the white line seems close to a Freeze Thur night/Fri morning.:
I think Chicago broke a snow record today for getting a trace of snow. I'm using my phone so hard to post stuff and sources. Ohare must of had snow falling.
And we all know TWC and the NWS don't have a warm bias in calling out future cold shots
For example the NWS on Saturday/Sunday had the predicted low on Friday night here at 51 F, now the predicted low is 40 for us Friday Night.
Likewise for the location in Northern Alabama where I'll be spending the weekend originally had a forecast low of 45 F for the day I get there (Friday), now the predicted low is 32 with frost.
Exactly. 9 days out the major forecasting services factor in climatology, which tends to mute any deviations from average that are modeled to occur or (frequently) actually occur. When major cold outbreaks or major heat waves occur the TWC/NWS forecast 9 days out is always less extreme than the actual result. TWC and NWS take a conservative approach to medium-range forecasts, which tends to be inaccurate when major events occur. Accuweather takes an aggressive approach which is more accurate at predicting major events, but can also predict a major event that doesn't pan out.
In this case there is widespread and consistent model support for a huge outpouring of cold air into the Central and Eastern U.S., which is why I think the end result (broadly speaking) will be closer to Accuweather's map than TWC's map.
Exactly. 9 days out the major forecasting services factor in climatology, which tends to mute any deviations from average that are modeled to occur or (frequently) actually occur. When major cold outbreaks or major heat waves occur the TWC/NWS forecast 9 days out is always less extreme than the actual result. TWC and NWS take a conservative approach to medium-range forecasts, which tends to be inaccurate when major events occur. Accuweather takes an aggressive approach which is more accurate at predicting major events, but can also predict a major event that doesn't pan out.
In this case there is widespread and consistent model support for a huge outpouring of cold air into the Central and Eastern U.S., which is why I think the end result (broadly speaking) will be closer to Accuweather's map than TWC's map.
yeah but both forecasts are similar for south florida with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Some colder nights for my area. Over the next 5 days, the low temperatures are forecast to be between 39 and 32 degrees (4 and 0c). The 32 degrees might happen Friday morning.
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.
, this weekend here would be frigid in Miami though.
