Fall 2013 Thread — Northern Hemisphere (snow, warm, temperatures, America)

[miamihurricane555]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Check this out...



GFS has sticking snow over Midwest next week



Temps take a dive next week.

it's bigger than all of alaska!!

[Cambium]

Posting this here too for the Eastern U.S Peeps.

I'll keep this simple...

1. VERY warm morning out there near 60. which is 15-20 above normal. Warm Day.
2. Cold front coming through today which is still over PA (Little rain)
3. Temps will drop into the 30s in spots by Friday 7pm. Stay in 40s on Saturday
4. Quick warmup on Sunday
5. The fun begins

Temps might stay in the 30s during the day on Tuesday or Wednesday.

THE EURO HAS AGREED WITH GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. (That's a first huh?)

We should be seeing our first snowflakes of the season including south of us (the mid Atlantic). No point in mentioning how much yet but the setup is amazing to see.

Here's a graphic to explain what's happening.

Left image is for Tuesday. Cold air already over us thanks to the Arctic High dropping down. That green blob along the blue line is moisture riding under the High along the Jet stream.

Right image is the storm exiting around the Mid Atlantic and then developing and moving up the coast. Enough cold air around to throw down snow.

There are so many updates from now till then, this scenario wont be "exact". But the general idea is there.

As far as what is being shown for snow totals...... well.... See below but re-read my last sentence before this.



The scenario is believable NOT>>>>NOT this snowfall total. Use it as eye candy only but consider the fact that snow could be in the forecast next week. Lets see what happens as the days go on.

[Cambium]

National Weather Service starting to mention it in their discussions now.

Mt Holly NJ:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
455 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013

National Weather Service Text Product Display

WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT IF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS ITS COURSE, WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST FLAKES FOR THE SEASON THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA

Upton:
National Weather Service Text Product Display
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013

THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT NEEDS WATCHING AS BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING TOWARD A STRONG COASTAL LOW. THERE IS A LOT THAT CAN CHANGE AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS

[chicagogeorge]

204 hours is still fantasy. A lot can and will change

We might get our first sticking snow on Sunday. Not much....

[Cambium]

Current temps down south. Cold front all the way to Gulf.

[Cambium]

GFS6z Data for 4 locations.

Skip the snow scenario for a second & look at the potential daytime temps for many folks in the East next Tues/Wednesday staying in the 30s.

[cloudcrash619]

I just the 00z ecmwf model, I THINK I'M GOING TO HAVE A PANIC ATTACK, but I say it has a 0.8% chance of verifying.

[Mac15]

Why does eastern america always get so much snow even though its not that cold?

[nei]

dew point is up to 58°F

[nei]

Originally Posted by Mac15

Why does eastern america always get so much snow even though its not that cold?

It's cold when it snows, it's variable enough here that there'll be some days below average enough snow. In midwinter of course, the highs are barely above freezing so it is cold enough normally.