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Old 07-26-2013, 04:31 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,167 posts, read 47,514,370 times
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With Fall (Sept-November) just a month away the forecasts are coming out..

I'll start with accuweather





Tid Bit from Paul Pastelok.

The overall three-month period will feature a warmer-than-normal pattern continuing across the Northeast, northern Rockies and now working across the High Plains. Precipitation will remain above normal along the East Coast and Gulf Coast. The frequency of rain events may ease back later in August and September, but the intensity of the events can still be strong (especially if we see a big tropical hit during this period). Flooding is still a threat along the Gulf coast and from the Appalachians on east. The wet weather can impact vacationers into September in the big resorts and beaches. Increasing amounts of insects around moist ground can be a problem. This could impact the harvest of fruits and vegetables with increased pesticides.


The CFS trended colder from previous forecasts. We made a note in the model concern section about the change there. We also noted the change in November. The CFS is trending colder from the northern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. This could be an area of early snowfall as well. One system may have a chance to make it to the East Coast, again if there is phasing of the two Jet streams. The timing will have been pinpointed in the 30- and 90-day sections as we get closer.

With the shift in the pattern from September and October, the upper heights could rise across the Northwest and West. This can lead to warmer-than-normal departures. In addition, the late fall looks a bit drier for the Northwest compared to the previous two months. However, our confidence is low whether the Northwest is near normal or below. We are leaning near normal. Watch for big highs to move down through the northern Rockies and Plains which can lead to drier, offshore winds in the Southwest, particularly California and Nevada. This could also extend the wildfire risk through November and into December.

We also kept the below-normal precipitation out of Denver on North with the potential for some upslope precipitation, possibly snow at times depending on how cold the air mass is. Therefore, the Front Range may start packing up the snow before Thanksgiving. We cannot rule out snow across the upper tier of the nation from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and even into the higher ground of the Northeast. There is just a small chance at this time for the big East Coast cities
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Old 07-26-2013, 04:46 PM
 
Location: Lincoln, NE
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I'm liking the November map, if it verifies, hopefully the below average temperatures will continue. But I can just see the pattern suddenly changing and December ends up 7 degrees above average again. Also, I'm really surprised how far South they have the September frost map!
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Old 07-26-2013, 05:01 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
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Looks good to me, near average all three months. Surprised northern new England isn't in the frost/freeze area for September, seems like parts of ME, VT, NH, and NY at least would get frosts that month.
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Old 07-26-2013, 05:21 PM
 
Location: North West Northern Ireland.
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It would be nice to get some early frosts and snow this year. My first frost last year was 22nd September.
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Old 07-26-2013, 05:32 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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My first frost in 2012 was October 13th
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Old 07-26-2013, 05:36 PM
 
Location: North West Northern Ireland.
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Yea, mines is usually in October. But sometimes it is in September too or November but it is mostly October.

Usually our first frost is like the 12th October.
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Old 07-29-2013, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Springfield, mo
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Looks like we may get a few blasts of cold. Bring it on! I love fall weather when there is a crisp feel to the air. I hope this means we get more snow this winter. I am looking forward to the fall weather.
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Old 07-29-2013, 07:52 PM
 
Location: Toronto
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Looking forward to fall
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Old 07-29-2013, 07:54 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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I can't wait for fall. I would like some early season storms (rain, wind, and gloom) in September and October followed by a freezing cold November. A taste of autumn in August would be nice too. Heck, let's just put the kibosh on summer now - lol.
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Old 07-30-2013, 01:48 AM
 
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First frost of 2012: September 14 with low of -1c
First frost of 2011: September 13 with low of -1.3c
First frost of 2010: September 19 with low of -1.5c
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