Rate the climate: Helsinki 2031-2060 normals prediction (months, winter, may)

[dunno what to put here]

Originally Posted by Ariete

Mälaren is actually a shallow lake with a canal, so no wonder it freezes over. The max depth of the lake is 64 meters. And the March of 2006 was one of the coldest Marches ever, with a mean temp of -4.0C at Stockholm Bromma...

I didn't know that. Well, I knew March 2006 was very cold, though clearly it doesn't take much to freeze it over.

[wawa1992]

Not bad. B. Warmer summers help it out, present Helsinki is a C+.

[forgotten username]

Looks like Warsaw.

[Alkis]

B+ it is very nice! And I suppose that the sunshine will also be increased.

[Jakobsli]

The climate of Helsinki will the resemble Central Europe much more.


Give your thoughts and comments, and if you have similar predictions, post them, please.

Ok, here is my take on this: Telemark, Norway 2031 - 2060
I have based this on real climate data for Gvarv in Telemark (94 m).

Here is data based on the years 1961-90, for Gvav:

Mean temperature - Station number first, then the months and last is the year average (Celsius)
32100
-6,6
-5,8
-0,7
4,3
10,2
14,9
16,0
14,6
10,0
5,6
-0,4
-4,9
4,8

Avg daily high:
32100
-2,9
-0,6
4,5
10,2
16,5
21,2
22,2
21,0
16,0
10,1
3,0
-1,4
10,0

Avg daily low:
32100
-10,5
-10,3
-5,3
-0,9
4,0
8,3
9,9
8,8
5,4
2,2
-3,4
-8,5
0,0

Precipitation:
32100
47
35
42
34
65
64
81
95
96
97
75
49
780

Precipitation days => 1 mm:
32100
9,1
6,1
7,7
6,6
9,4
9,4
11,0
10,2
10,5
10,8
10,2
7,7
108,7

Sunhours based on Kristiansand, on the Norwegian south coast, with a little increase (a little more high pressure weather in the future, especially in spring and summer).
Gvarv is WSW of Oslo, and well known in Norway as one of the warmest places in summer. It is located inland, but still at low altitude.
Colder in winter than Oslo, as it is inland, so it might retain a little snowpack in winter even many years into the future.

Currently, possibly the world's most northerly commercial vineyard is in Gvarv:
Swedish Merlot, anyone? - IOL Lifestyle | IOL.co.za



So, what du you think about this example?

[Ariete]

Originally Posted by Jakobsli

So, what du you think about this example?

I would say the example is a bit exaggerated. We are still talking about a period of 20-30 years from now, so though the summers are among the warmest in Norway, that kind of warm-up looks impossible for normals. After all, we will still have cooler summers as well in the future.

I found two others I made, which are based on the FMI 2085 predictions:



Lappeenranta is one of the warmest places in summer in Finland, and even 85 years from now the averages doesn't change dramatically, especially in spring and autumn. Altitude is 106 m ASL.

Turku is looking definitely oceanic at that time:

[Dean York]

I've just seen the coat of arms for Lappeenranta on Wiki. Super. Gay.

What are the current averages there?

[Ariete]

Originally Posted by dean york

I've just seen the coat of arms for Lappeenranta on Wiki. Super. Gay.

What are the current averages there?

Hahhah, yes. It's a "forest Finn", from the early medieval times when that part of Finland wasn't under the Swedish crown's jurisdiction.

Current "warm season" highs May-Sep are 15, 19, 22, 20, 14. Nearby Kouvola are 16, 20, 23, 21, 15 (the warmest highs in summer).

[Jakobsli]

Originally Posted by Ariete

I would say the example is a bit exaggerated. We are still talking about a period of 20-30 years from now, so though the summers are among the warmest in Norway, that kind of warm-up looks impossible for normals. After all, we will still have cooler summers as well in the future.

I found two others I made, which are based on the FMI 2085 predictions:



Lappeenranta is one of the warmest places in summer in Finland, and even 85 years from now the averages doesn't change dramatically, especially in spring and autumn. Altitude is 106 m ASL.

Turku is looking definitely oceanic at that time:

Turku will loose almost all of it's snow with those temperatures....so yes, definately more oceanic


I am not so sure about my summer temperatures for Gvarv 2031-2060 being exaggerated. Remember the July data (22.2 /9.9) are from 1961 -90. However, I wanted to check a little more.

First. the weather station in Gvarv has been discontinued after 1990 and a new one in a different location has started up, so I could not look at that station.
Therefore, I looked at Kristiansand Airport Kjevik. The airport is not very large, and it is 16 km by road and 8 km by air NE from Kristiansand itself, so UHI should be very small.

The 1961-90 average for July for Kjevik, high /mean /low, is: 20.1C / 15.5C / 11.1C.
It is close to the sea, so cooler higs in summers than Gvarv.
I have used data from met.no (eklima), and calculated the July data for 1991 - 2014 for Kjevik, July average high /low: 21.2C /12C
The median year for 61-90 is 1975. The median year for the 24 years 1991 - 2014 is 2002. Thus, in 27 years, the warming has been: Low + 0.9C, high + 1.1C.

The median year from 2030 - 2060 is 2045. It is 70 years from 1975 to 2045. If the same warming is to continue, the total warming in 2045 compared to 61-90 will be: Low + 2.33C, high + 2.85C.
July low was 9.9C at Gvarv in 61-90, new normal with same rate of warming should be 12.2C. So my estimated July low of 14C seems a bit exaggerated. However, Gvarv is less oceanic compared with Kjevik, and slightly more warming is expected.
July high at Telemark /Gvarv was 22.2C, new July average daily high with same rate of warming should be 25C , so here my example with high 24.6C does not seem exaggerated.

[Ariete]

Remeber that the summers have warmed up the least, the winters most.

Be prepared for that when the 81-10 normals come out for Norway, June means have dropped and May temps possibly dropped or stayed the same.