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Old 05-07-2016, 03:19 PM
 
Location: NYntarctica
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My viewpoint is that climate change is real, it is influenced by manmade activities, but it's not like the sky is falling, because it's not. It's a very slow change. And only cettain parts are warming, others are getting colder. For example, because of the cycle we"re in now, Antarctica, Argentina, North Atlantic Ocean, and the Northeast US are getting colder than ever, and it's a cycle that could last five years, or it could be forever. Maybe the cold North Atlantic would slow down the Gulfstrwam and bring the entire Western Europe into an ice age with the negative departures we've seen in Argentina and Chile and the Northeast United States the past few years
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Old 05-08-2016, 10:12 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
More from the write up above on the AMO. He says the Atlantic AMO will cool down and the PDO will also be negative. A pattern we saw in the 1950s might soon come.


Our avg temps in winter in the 50's were warmer than now lol. Even our low temps. Avg winter min 9F, higher than now. Dec, Jan and Feb all had monthly mean temps warmer than 1981-2010. Bring it on cause I welcome it.
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Old 05-08-2016, 10:53 PM
 
Location: NYntarctica
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A pattern we saw in the 50s would probably lead to even warmer temperatures nowadays. We need 1950 back
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Old 05-16-2016, 12:59 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Holy Crap. Highest PDO value for April happened this year

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Old 05-16-2016, 02:12 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Holy Crap. Highest PDO value for April happened this year


That should make you very happy about next winter. The world gets warmer but our area gets colder lol.

Last edited by tom77falcons; 05-16-2016 at 02:23 PM..
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Old 05-16-2016, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Holy Crap. Highest PDO value for April happened this year


Just look at how ridiculously short the most recent cold PDO has been compared to the last one decades ago. And look how long the last warm PDO was. They seem due for a very long cold PDO. I am really hoping we flip back to sustained cold PDO sooner rather than later.
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Old 05-16-2016, 03:04 PM
 
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^^



Check out the PDO in July 1983. over 3.5! And there have been plenty of imporessie -PDO monthly indecies as well.



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Old 05-16-2016, 04:25 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warszawa View Post
My viewpoint is that climate change is real, it is influenced by manmade activities, but it's not like the sky is falling, because it's not. It's a very slow change. And only cettain parts are warming, others are getting colder. For example, because of the cycle we"re in now, Antarctica, Argentina, North Atlantic Ocean, and the Northeast US are getting colder than ever, and it's a cycle that could last five years, or it could be forever. Maybe the cold North Atlantic would slow down the Gulfstrwam and bring the entire Western Europe into an ice age with the negative departures we've seen in Argentina and Chile and the Northeast United States the past few years

Maybe the warming of the planet you talk about is the reason why the PDO went back to warm so fast.
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Old 05-17-2016, 04:59 AM
 
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I also found this peer reviews article last night that I was reading, I didn't have a chance to post it.

The Effect of Natural Multidecadal Ocean Temperature Oscillations on Contiguous U.S. Regional Temperatures




Quote:
Abstract

Atmospheric temperature time series for the nine climate regions of the contiguous U.S. are accurately reproduced by the superposition of oscillatory modes, representing the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), on a monotonic mode representing, at least in part, the effect of radiant forcing due to increasing atmospheric CO2. The relative importance of the different modes varies among the nine climate regions, grouping them into three mega-regions: Southeastern comprising the South, Southeast and Ohio Valley; Central comprising the Southwest, Upper Midwest, and Northeast; and Northwestern comprising the West, Northwest, and Northern Rockies & Plains. The defining characteristics of the mega-regions are: Southeastern – dominated by the AMO, no PDO influence; Central – influenced by the AMO, no PDO influence, Northwestern – influenced by both the AMO and PDO. Temperature vs. time curves calculated by combining the separate monotonic and oscillatory modes agree well with the measured temperature time series, indicating that the 1938-1974 small decrease in contiguous U.S. temperature was caused by the superposition of the downward-trending oscillatory mode on the upward-trending monotonic mode while the 1980-2000 large increase in temperature was caused by the superposition of the upward-trending oscillatory mode on the upward-trending monotonic mode. The oscillatory mode, mostly representing the AMO, was responsible for about 72% of the entire contiguous U.S. temperature increase over that time span with the contribution varying from 86 to 42% for individual climate regions.

Quote:
shows the correlations of the smoothed time series with the calculated monotonic, oscillatory, and combined modes for each of the contiguous U.S. climate regions. In the Southeastern mega-region the correlation of the regional temperature time series with the monotonic mode is much smaller relative to the correlation with the oscillatory mode than is the case for the other climate regions. Correlation with the PDO is not significant (≤ 0.10) in either the Southeastern or Central mega-regions. In the Northwestern mega-region the time series is significantly correlated with the PDO: 0.32, 0.24, and 0.26 (not shown by the figure) for the NR&P, W, and NW climate regions, respectively. Adding a PDO contribution to the oscillatory mode, with a weight equal to about 50% of the AMO contribution, improves the correlation of the temperature time series, as shown by the lines near the tops of the Northwestern mega-region bars on Fig 7. The NR&P climate region is placed in the Northwestern mega-region on this basis, but it could also fit in the Central mega-region since its correlation with the oscillatory mode is higher than with the monotonic mode, in contrast to the W and NW climate regions. This suggests that the NR&P climate region should be divided into two parts, the western part assigned to the Northwestern mega-region, the eastern part to the Central mega-region



It says the Central regions (ME) is influenced by the AMO, but NOT by the PDO
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Old 05-17-2016, 08:47 AM
 
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Cold PDO period and US summer temps?

-PDO began in the late 40's and last until the late 70's.








Winter temps






Warm PDO summers, late 70's through late 2000's




Winters






So Tom, Cambium, any thoughts when looking at decadal swings of the PDO and temperature trends for the summer and winter in the US?




How about AMO?





1970- 1987 -AMO summers



winters




1995-2015 +AMO

Summers




winters






So independently, which Index correlates better? Or do we need to look at both?
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