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Old 09-06-2016, 12:43 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
^^

Disregard map above. I used the wrong years

Weak La Nina and -PDO = eastern US torch

Well I wouldn't want 2012 again as that caused lots of problems with honeybees dying off and flowers budding at all the wrong times. I just want an average winter for once.

Everyone thinks the PDO will go back positive. I'm confused why everyone thinks that when aren't we supposed to be in the long term neg PDO cycle anyway?
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Old 09-06-2016, 12:53 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
Well I wouldn't want 2012 again as that caused lots of problems with honeybees dying off and flowers budding at all the wrong times. I just want an average winter for once.

Everyone thinks the PDO will go back positive. I'm confused why everyone thinks that when aren't we supposed to be in the long term neg +PDO cycle anyway?
It still is positive but August data should show that it is barely positive. We will see if this is a one month blip or is the developing La Nina eroding the PDO in the long term

Winter of 2013/2014 was brutal here look at the PDO

Dec -0.41 Jan 0.30 Feb 0.38 negative in December and barely positive Jan/Feb
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Old 09-06-2016, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,087 posts, read 9,602,612 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
It still is positive but August data should show that it is barely positive. We will see if this is a one month blip or is the developing La Nina eroding the PDO in the long term

Winter of 2013/2014 was brutal here look at the PDO

Dec -0.41 Jan 0.30 Feb 0.38 negative in December and barely positive Jan/Feb

That was the warm blob winter, and the blob is back. Either way, I don't expect an average winter here. Just about everyone is calling for a very cold eastern US winter. Been this way since 2010 when this trend started. Mild or even average winters are now more rare than the colder winters.
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Old 09-06-2016, 12:56 PM
 
Location: New York Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
It still is positive but August data should show that it is barely positive. We will see if this is a one month blip or is the developing La Nina eroding the PDO in the long term

Winter of 2013/2014 was brutal here look at the PDO

Dec -0.41 Jan 0.30 Feb 0.38 negative in December and barely positive Jan/Feb
Even in the northeast 1964-5 was normal and 1967-8 was brutal, at least through mid-January. In fact even KNYC (Central Park) went below zero a few times. 1971-2 and 2011-12 were torches. 1971-2 cooled down after around January 28, but that was as the super Niño began to evolve and the PDO went neutral.
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Old 09-07-2016, 05:01 AM
 
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Old 09-07-2016, 07:58 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
64,986 posts, read 47,303,288 times
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Bare with me, going to get on topic.....


Discussing Septembers Avg temp I came across confirmation that it did feel more fall like in the past like 1980s & 90s...


September Average temp since 1948..

Normal is 66.2° for BDR. (normal = 1981-2010 period)


Check out 1980s and even into the 90s. Our thoughts are right. Was below normal and more fall like then.


Last year was record warm.

We only had 5 below normal Septembers since 1990s?





Going further and on topic of this thread....... does this surprise you?? Atlantic Ocean temps.... There's part of your reason. The phase of the Atlantic has been warmer. Need it to cool off and usually happens every 2-3 decades or so.











http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/AMO/

Last edited by Cambium; 09-07-2016 at 08:07 AM..
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Old 09-07-2016, 08:29 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,087 posts, read 9,602,612 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Bare with me, going to get on topic.....


Discussing Septembers Avg temp I came across confirmation that it did feel more fall like in the past like 1980s & 90s...


September Average temp since 1948..

Normal is 66.2° for BDR. (normal = 1981-2010 period)


Check out 1980s and even into the 90s. Our thoughts are right. Was below normal and more fall like then.


Last year was record warm.

We only had 5 below normal Septembers since 1990s?





Going further and on topic of this thread....... does this surprise you?? Atlantic Ocean temps.... There's part of your reason. The phase of the Atlantic has been warmer. Need it to cool off and usually happens every 2-3 decades or so.


tp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/AMO/

Yes, summers and Sept back then were colder as I showed every year from 1977 to 1989 had an annual mean temp below average.

But when does the PDO go back into its supposed current cycle of cold? It has flipped to warm now for 4 years and needs to go back to cold where it belongs at this point in its cycle.
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Old 09-07-2016, 12:25 PM
 
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I don't see the PDO effecting the trend here that deviates from the long term rise in September temperatures.


Last edited by chicagogeorge; 09-07-2016 at 01:12 PM..
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Old 09-07-2016, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
64,986 posts, read 47,303,288 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
I don't see the PDO effecting the trend here that deviates from the long term rise in September temperatures.
Transition month might be hard to see with your location? The graph before was the AMO and Bridgeport would definitely show for good reasons of being near the Atlantic.


Someone said to me that they don't think the PDO will go back strong positive this winter because it never does... So I checked... It has..

1986
1987
1983
1940
1936


1986-87 PDO is interesting.. Up Down Up

JAN 1.12
FEB 1.61
MAR 2.18
APR 1.55
MAY 1.16
JUN 0.89
JUL 1.38
AUG 0.22
SEP 0.22
OCT 1
NOV 1.77
DEC 1.77
1987
JAN 1.88
FEB 1.75
MAR 2.1
APR 2.16
MAY 1.85

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
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Old 09-07-2016, 01:13 PM
 
21,896 posts, read 11,565,394 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Transition month might be hard to see with your location?

Summers also look above average during the 1980's although there were a couple of cool summer too




Quote:
The graph before was the AMO and Bridgeport would definitely show for good reasons of being near the Atlantic.


Someone said to me that they don't think the PDO will go back strong positive this winter because it never does... So I checked... It has..

1986
1987
1983
1940
1936


1986-87 PDO is interesting.. Up Down Up

JAN 1.12
FEB 1.61
MAR 2.18
APR 1.55
MAY 1.16
JUN 0.89
JUL 1.38
AUG 0.22
SEP 0.22
OCT 1
NOV 1.77
DEC 1.77
1987
JAN 1.88
FEB 1.75
MAR 2.1
APR 2.16
MAY 1.85

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
It is interesting
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