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Old 05-05-2016, 04:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
64,982 posts, read 47,303,288 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post

Chicago winter temps since 1990 with different phases of PDO/AMO (average throughout the 3 month winter period)

1990: -AMO/-AMO mild winter
1991: -AMO/-PDO average winter
1992: -AMO/+PDO mild winter
1993: -AMO/+PDO slightly below average
1994: -AMO/+PDO cold winter
1995: -AMO/-PDO above average
1996: neutral AMO/+PDO average winter
1997: -AMO/+PDO below average
1998: +AMO/+PDO: way above average
1999: -AMO/-PDO: way above average
2000: -AMO/-PDO: way above average
2001: -AMO/+PDO: below average
2002: +AMO/-PDO: way above average
2003: +AMO/+PDO: way below average
2004: +AMO/+PDO: below average
2005: +AMO/+PDO: average winter
2006: +AMO/+PDO: above average (one of mildest January's on record)
2007: +AMO/-PDO: well above Dec average Jan one of the coldest February's on record
2008: +AMO/-PDO: average Dec-Jan cold Feb
2009: -AMO/-PDO: Below average (especially Jan)
2010: +AMO/+PDO: Below average
2011: +AMO/-PDO: way below average
2012: -AMO/-PDO: above average
2013: +AMO/-PDO: above average
2014: -AMO/+PDO: way below average
2015: +AMO/+PDO: below average


The only two consistent combination that sticks out is -AMO/+PDO which looks like it usually produces colder winters and a -AMO/-PDO which usually produce milder winters for us. The other combinations are quite random. Does anyone else see another pattern that I don't?
Wow. Nice work! Is that PDO/AMO using a 3 month winter Avg or Jan through Dec?


Yeah, a lot of random mixes in there but the -AMO/+PDO colder winters makes sense. Also, I wonder for the above average winters with a positive PDO if the PDO was negative all Fall and maybe December and by time it flipped positive it was too late.
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Old 05-05-2016, 04:49 PM
 
Location: New York Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Wow. Nice work! Is that PDO/AMO using a 3 month winter Avg or Jan through Dec?


Yeah, a lot of random mixes in there but the -AMO/+PDO colder winters makes sense. Also, I wonder for the above average winters with a positive PDO if the PDO was negative all Fall and maybe December and by time it flipped positive it was too late.
I suspect in the short run +PDO makes for colder East Coast winters but in the long run it promotes very strong El Niños which tend to be quite warm. Examples are the winters of 1982-3, 1997-8 and 2015-6. These winters were very warm even with blizzards during two out of three of them, and in the past winter a historic cold wave.
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Old 05-05-2016, 05:02 PM
 
Location: NYntarctica
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Two of the strongest El Niños came after a string of brutal winters
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Old 05-05-2016, 06:57 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Wow. Nice work! Is that PDO/AMO using a 3 month winter Avg or Jan through Dec?
It's just the 3 month winter average.


Quote:
Yeah, a lot of random mixes in there but the -AMO/+PDO colder winters makes sense.
I wonder if being closer to the center of the country limits the impact of the PDO/AMO when compared withe the coasts? Other teleconnections more crucial?

Quote:
Also, I wonder for the above average winters with a positive PDO if the PDO was negative all Fall and maybe December and by time it flipped positive it was too late.

Yeah that be.


Btw, that 1990 index was supposed to say -AMO/-PDO
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Old 05-06-2016, 05:29 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Steve D mentions the PDO while explaining why the wild fires in Canada.

https://nynjpaweather.com/2016/05/06...limate-change/

Quote:
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a completely natural oscillation which lasts for 20 to 30 years. We are currently in a warm PDO phase which naturally explains many of the elevated temperatures over the past 20 years (shhh, you weren’t supposed to know that). For more information on the PDO, go here!

So why is the PDO important? Okay, so I’m going to explain this in general terms but unlike others, I will show you a direct link to this Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) and this fire. So let’s get this cracking.

1. Note the cold water in the central Pacific and the warm water along the west coast of North America. This thermal gradient (text book +PDO) leads to air mass clashes over the northern Pacific and what we call a sustained trough. Sometimes these troughs become cut off and become powerful upper level lows.
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Old 05-07-2016, 04:10 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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More from the write up above on the AMO. He says the Atlantic AMO will cool down and the PDO will also be negative. A pattern we saw in the 1950s might soon come.


Quote:
What we have in place is called a positive PDO in the Pacific and a weakening positive AMO in the Atlantic.


3. Now, remember the SSTA in the Atlantic? Again, we are dealing with thermal dynamics. We have very warm water in the western Atlantic and very cold water in the northeastern Atlantic. This clash of air masses is leading to a trough over the northwestern Atlantic which acts like a block. Think of this block like a traffic jam. So, the result of this, combined with a ridge in the West is a sustained trough and/or upper level low over the Eastern United States. This is why the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas have seen plenty of rainfall of late.


Over the next several decades we will see the Atlantic continue to cool significantly as we go into a negative AMO phase and the northern Pacific is expected to follow suit as well. When this happens, the patterns will flip and you’ll noticed marked changes in surface temperatures and weather pattern as a result. The last time we saw a combination of a negative AMO/PDO was back in the 1950’s which ironically (I say this sarcastically) was when global temperatures were much cooler (but you didn’t hear that)..
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Old 05-07-2016, 09:35 AM
 
Location: Orcutt, CA (Santa Maria Valley)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
More from the write up above on the AMO. He says the Atlantic AMO will cool down and the PDO will also be negative. A pattern we saw in the 1950s might soon come.
Cold! Cold! Cold!
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Old 05-07-2016, 09:47 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
5,841 posts, read 2,464,157 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
More from the write up above on the AMO. He says the Atlantic AMO will cool down and the PDO will also be negative. A pattern we saw in the 1950s might soon come.
The 50s were the most average ,stable decade i have seen for Raleigh. The 50s featured some very mild winter, including the winter of 49-50 which saw a January with an average high of 63!!!! The 50s turned colder toward the end, but nothing extreme. Overall a pretty stable decade. Was followed by the most hellish 40 year period in weather I saw in raleighs record ever , coldest march, July, January, February, record lows in all months. Basically every cold record was set during the decades that followed the 50s. Also the 50s were fairly snowless here.I'll take the 50s but a bit warmer and not be followed by a 4 decade cold epoch.
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Old 05-07-2016, 10:13 AM
 
Location: NYntarctica
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We need the 50s or the 90s back. Esepcually rhe winter of 49-50
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Old 05-07-2016, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
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I have been thinking about global warming for the past few days . Is it real? Natural? Man made? Going to stop?

Here is my current opinion after a lot of research and thinking. The earth is definitely warming, it is mostly natural. I have also been thinking about the global warming deniers who deny science and how they are just as bad as the alarmists who deny science also.

Mother nature can t be controlled, if she wants to warm let her be. Global warming is not bad like alarmists want us to think. We won't drown under the sea, snow will still fall in a lot of places, not all the glaciers will melt. Maybe these things will happen but in the far far future, and it would take far more significant warming than now.

What is the fight against global warming? Why fight something that will benefit the globe, more rainfall, less cold related deaths( cold kills more globally than heat) , longer growing seasons, increased co2 has made the earth very lush and green, in case you missed this part in biology class, plants intake co2 which is used in the photosynthesis process and then released as O2. Less co2= less plant fuel more co2 = more plant fuel. Global warming will also expand the tree line further north, green deserts , and make some uninhabitable places habitable.

Also , if global warming is so bad, why have the most diverse lush times on earth been when the earth was warmer than now. What happens when we "stop global warming"? Does that end food security problems, decrease diseases or somehing,? Then what? The earth has always been cooling or warming. What if the earth then begins cooling? That would be far more dire in than warming. Do we fight that?

The conclusion I came to is this global warming alarmism is bs, denying global warming is happening is bs. Global warming is what the earth is doing now, we can't control it, no matter what we do. If global warming alarmists were so concerned about the earth they would leave her alone and let her do what she wants, after all don't they believe its mans fault we are warming? Haven't you learned your lesson? Don't mess with mother nature. Simple.
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