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Old 09-08-2013, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Germany
505 posts, read 550,552 times
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Hey, I recently calculated the average temperatures (and rainfall) for severeal places in Northern Sweden. I had the motivation to do that, because i actually couldn't find reliable data (with avg. highs and lows) for any period and because I wanted to compare the recent climate of the last 12 years with the climate averages of the 1961-1990-period. Of course 12 years are actually not really long enough, but i think that those averages are meaningful nevertheless. I will post every climate i fully calculated here and give a little description how it has changed in the last few decades compared to the mean temperatures and rainfall data of the 61-90-period, which everyone can look up at smhi.se. I don't know, if anyone is actually interested in this topic, but i think that even people, which aren't interested in the region are maybe interested in the temperatures changes...


I will go from south to north:

first place is Jokkmokk, which is situated directly north of the arctic circle:



Jokkmokk had the coldest mean temperature (with -17.5°C in January) in the coldest month of all swedish climates during the time between 61 and 90, due to the fact that it features a kind of more continental climate and that it lies rather at a lower altitude and in a little well, which promotes colder air masses. The January mean obviously increased by more than 3°C, which is really an enormous change. At the same time, February stayed basically the same, increasing by only 0.3°C... March increased by 1.0°C, April by 1.8°C, May by 1.0°C, June decreased by 0.2°C, July increased by 0.9°C, August by 1.0°C, September by 1.2°C, October decreased by 0.3°C, November increased by 1.4°C and December also increased by 2.7°C...

In order to accelerate this, I'll - from now on - just type in the changes in a faster way.. so here are the changes in precipitation for Jokkmokk:

Jan: + 6.7 mm
Feb: + 3.0 mm
March: - 4.0 mm
April: -5.4 mm
May: + 17.2 mm
June: + 22.0 mm
July: + 7.5 mm
August: - 2.5 mm
Sep: + 20.5 mm
Oct: - 0.1 mm
Nov: - 5.5 mm
Dec: + 12.7 mm

next place is Kvikkjokk, which is situated more in the western part of Lapland, immediately south of the Sarek-mountains.

Kvikkjokk, 2002-2013:


changes in temperature:

Jan: + 1.7°C
Feb: - 0.3°C
March: + 1.0°C
April: + 1.7°C
May: + 0.8°C
June: + 0.5°C
July: + 1.5°C
Aug: + 1.3°C
Sep: + 1.3°C
Oct: + 0.1°C
Nov: + 1.3°C
Dec: + 2.1°C

precipitation:

Jan: + 4.0 mm
Feb: + 1.1 mm
March: - 6.5 mm
April: - 4.1 mm
May: + 11.5 mm
June: + 7.0 mm
July: + 2.9 mm
Aug: + 0.9 mm
Sep: + 5.7 mm
Oct: - 10.7 mm
Nov: - 1.4 mm
Dec: + 8.3 mm


next place is Kiruna, probably the most famous of these places. It's a city with ~20.000 inhabitans, which is situated approximately 150 km north of the arctic circle. Note: this weather station is named "Kiruna-Esrange" and Esrange is a place situated further east and it's probably cooler than Kiruna itself, but unfortunately I don't know, where exactly the weather station is situated.

Kiruna, 2002-2013:


changes in temperature (compared to the station Kiruna-Esrange, not Kiruna):

Jan: + 2.3°C
Feb: + 0.6°C
March: + 1.6°C
April: + 2.1°C
May: + 1.2°C
June: + 0.2°C
July: + 1.3°C
Aug: + 0.4°C
Sep: + 1.3°C
Oct: + 0.6°C
Nov: + 2.5°C
Dec: + 2.8°C


changes in precipitation:

Jan: + 7.4 mm
Feb: + 6.0 mm
March: - 7.4 mm
April: + 5.0 mm
May: + 25.0 mm
June: + 28.6 mm
July: + 17.6 mm
Aug: - 1.5 mm
Sep: + 12.1 mm
Oct: - 3.1 mm
Nov: - 3.9 mm
Dec: + 10.6 mm


Next place is Nikkaluokta, a village, which is situated at exactly the same latitude as Kiruna, but 50 km further west (rather in the mountains). It's known for it's severe night time temperatures, which are very often the lowest in Sweden (due to the surrounding mountains)... Note: there is a second weather station in Nikkaluokta, which features slightly colder winter temperatures and slightly warmer summer temperatures. For my calculations as well as for the comparison I'm using the station with the warmer winters and colder summers:



changes in temperatures:

Jan: + 0.8°C
Feb: + 0.1°C
March: + 1.2°C
April: + 2.2°C
May: + 1.3°C
June: + 0.6°C
July: + 1.6°C
Aug: + 1.5°C
Sep: + 1.3°C
Oct: - 0.2°C
Nov: + 1.5°C
Dec: + 1.0°C

changes in precipitation:

Jan: + 1.6 mm
Feb: + 1.2 mm
March: - 8.1 mm
April: - 10.9 mm
May: + 16.0 mm
June: + 14.9 mm
July: + 8.7 mm
Aug: - 6.3 mm
Sep: + 5.0 mm
Oct: - 7.0 mm
Nov: - 8.2 mm
Dec: + 5.2 mm

The next place is Riksgränsen/Katterjokk, which is a little village/ski resort in the northwestern part of Sweden on the border to Norway. It has a rather special climate, which kinda separates the place from all the other swedish Lapland climates, cause it has a stronger maritime influence since it's actually only a few kilometers away from the ocean, but due to the surrounding mountains and - most importantly - the relatively high altitude (~500 m), it's still pretty cold in winter and receives pretty much the highest snowfall of all swedish inhabited places. For this place I also did sunshine hours calculations for the 2002-2013 period. Note: the data i used comes from the station "KATTERJÅKK". there is a second station called "Riksgränsen". The Katterjakk-station is a little warmer in summer and a little colder in winter and it received 150 mm less precipation than the Riksgränsen station during the 61-90 period. so keep that in mind. Precipitation for Riksgränsen is probably higher than in the graph below. (it's actually strange cause from Riksgränsen to Katterjokk it's 500 meters^^).


Riksgränsen/Katterjokk, 2002-2013:


changes in temperature:

Jan: + 1.8°C
Feb: + 0.4°C
March: + 1.3°C
April: + 2.1°C
May: + 1.4°C
June: + 0.9°C
July: + 1.5°C
Aug: + 1.4°C
Sep: + 1.0°C
Oct: + 0.5°C
Nov: + 1.3°C
Dec: + 1.4°C

changes in precipitation:

Jan: + 3.6 mm
Feb: + 2.7 mm
March: + 17.9 mm
April: - 3.8 mm
May: + 12.8 mm
June: + 8.5 mm
July: + 14.5 mm
Aug: - 20.2 mm
Sep: + 40.2 mm
Oct: - 21.3 mm
Nov: - 11.8 mm
Dec: - 7.2 mm


The next place is Karesuando on the border to Finland in the eastern part of Swedish Lapland. It's one of the northernmost villages in Sweden and actually the northernmost with a population above 100 inhabitants.

Karesuando, 2002-2013:


changes in temperature:

Jan: + 2.3°C
Feb: + 0.5°C
March: + 1.6°C
April: + 2.4°C
May: + 1.7°C
June: + 0.4°C
July: + 1.2°C
Aug: + 1.2°C
Sep: + 0.8°C
Oct: + 0.6°C
Nov: + 1.3°C
Dec: + 2.5°C

changes in precipitation:

Jan: + 6.5 mm
Feb: + 5.5 mm
March: - 5.9 mm
April: - 3.3 mm
May: + 18.2 mm
June: + 20.6 mm
July: + 11.3 mm
Aug: + 4.1 mm
Sep: + 12.2 mm
Oct: + 0.5 mm
Nov: -0.9 mm
Dec: + 10.2 mm


The next and for now final place is Naimakka, a village which lies even further north than Karesuando (but also on the finnish border). It's often said to be the northernmost village in Sweden, which is actually not true, cause there is an even smaller village called Keinovuopio, which is situated further north than Naimakka and still has 6 permanent inhabitants. But nevertheless, Naimakka is still the northernmost village in Sweden, which features a weather station and thus it holds also the record for being the coldest village of Sweden (judging by annual mean temperature, which was -3.0°C between 61 and 90).



changes in temperature:

Jan: + 1.8°C
Feb: + 0.6°C
March: + 1.5°C
April: + 2.4°C
May: + 2.0°C
June: + 0.4°C
July: + 1.3°C
Aug: + 1.5°C
Sep: + 1.1°C
Oct: + 0.4°C
Nov: + 1.7°C
Dec: + 2.8°C

changes in precipitation:

Jan: - 0.3 mm
Feb: + 1.4 mm
March: - 5.3 mm
April: - 4.7 mm
May: + 18.8 mm
June: + 24.7 mm
July: + 27.8 mm
Aug: - 3.7 mm
Sep: + 12.9 mm
Oct: - 1.2 mm
Nov: - 4.8 mm
Dec: + 3.1 mm


------------------------------------------------------------

So, as a conclusion one could state that there has obviously been a pretty rapid increase in average temperatures. Especially the months January, March, April, May, July, August, September, November and December got significantly warmer with January and December reaching even 3.0°C of increase at some places. Only February, June and October didn't increase that much. In fact, October stayed pretty much the same at most places or even had a little decrease in temperatures. Since February-temperatures increased only a little bit, it now features pretty much the same avg. temperatures as January at the most places since January-temperatures increased heavily.
Regarding the precipiation, one could conclude that winter precipiation (Dec-Feb) increased a little bit at some places and a little more at other places (especially December got snowier (or maybe even rainier^^)). March and April got drier almost everywhere, while May and June had a massive increase in precipiation almost everywhere. July receives more rain on average as well, while August stayed pretty much the same. September-rain increased a litte, while October and November stayed the same or even recorded a slight decrease.

so, that's basically it... maybe I'll post some other climates, if i'm done calculating them. I hope it was interesting ;-).
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Old 09-08-2013, 03:08 PM
 
21,898 posts, read 11,565,394 times
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Wow. That's a lot of research. Thanks for the information. No doubt the majority (but not all) of the globe has seen their temperatures increase over the last 30 years. What remains to be seen is if this trend will continue.
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Old 09-08-2013, 03:37 PM
 
Location: Finland
24,268 posts, read 17,510,732 times
Reputation: 11103
Very interesting. I don't have the 61-90 normals, so might be tough to compare to Finnish Lapland.

But if you want to compare, I did the 98-12 normals for Turku in SW Finland a couple of days ago.

Let's see.

Mean temps 98-12 vs 81-10,

Jan: 0.4C
Feb: -0.2C
Mar: 0.0
Apr: 0.8C
May: 0.1C
June: 0.2C
July: 0.6C
Aug: 0.4C
Sep: 0.8C
Oct: 0.3C
Nov: 0.9C
Dec: 0.3C

Prec,

Jan: -7mm
Feb: -7mm
Mar: -14mm
Apr: -5mm
May: -3mm
June: -1mm
July: 10mm
Aug: 1mm
Sep: 3mm
Oct: 2mm
Nov: -9mm
Dec: 0mm
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Old 09-08-2013, 03:45 PM
 
Location: Germany
505 posts, read 550,552 times
Reputation: 165
thanks for the contribution. I'd love to have 81-10 averages for swedish lapland, too, but since the calculations for that are actually a lot more complex than the ones for 2002-2013, it would take real long to calculate the averages for at least one place. 81-10 averages would at least be a real climatic period and not only ~10 years, but they'd still be not that outdated like the 61-90 averages...

I think that your changes between 81-10 and 98-12 confirm my calculated changes. Of course they're not that severe because 81-10 has been already a lot warmer than 61-90 and Turku is also pretty far away from those place I did the calculations for, but all in all the trends are surprisingly similar (except for the precipitation)...
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Old 09-08-2013, 03:53 PM
 
Location: Finland
24,268 posts, read 17,510,732 times
Reputation: 11103
If you can find the Finnish normals from 61-90 and want to compare, I can take a screen shot of a few stations in Finnish Lapland from 81-10 and paste it here.
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Old 09-08-2013, 03:57 PM
 
3,578 posts, read 2,813,112 times
Reputation: 1616
As a sidenote it can be said that the reference period 1961-1990 was one of the coldest 30-year periods in recorded swedish history. If it hadn't been for the two last extremly mild years - 1989 and 1990 - it may well have been THE coldest (late 1800s included). So while temperatures certainly has risen it can only partly be explained by AGW.

The winter temperatures does in fact look very similar to those of the 1931-1960 period.
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Old 09-08-2013, 04:00 PM
 
Location: Germany
505 posts, read 550,552 times
Reputation: 165
yes, kronan, I agree. 61-90 was definetely severly cold, also compared to 31-60 for example.... I just wanted to show the change between 61-90 and 2002-13 with no furhter implications...

@Ariete: well, sorry, but I actually can't find any finnish averages^^ does one have pay for them? (at the finnish meteorological institue)
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Old 09-08-2013, 04:00 PM
 
3,578 posts, read 2,813,112 times
Reputation: 1616
^^you should be able the find them here

NORDKLIM powered by SMHI

edit: i mean the finnish 61-90 means
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Old 09-08-2013, 04:02 PM
 
Location: Finland
24,268 posts, read 17,510,732 times
Reputation: 11103
Quote:
Originally Posted by tärnajokk View Post
@Ariete: well, sorry, but I actually can't find any finnish averages^^ does one have pay for them? (at the finnish meteorological institue)
The 81-10 are available only for Finnish citizens, but I thought the older ones could be in some dark corner of the Internet.

But the 80's were cold as well. The years 1985 and 1987 were among the all time coldest. In Sodankylä 1985 the all time coldest. These drop away from the next normals.
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Old 09-08-2013, 04:12 PM
 
Location: Germany
505 posts, read 550,552 times
Reputation: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by kronan123 View Post
^^you should be able the find them here

NORDKLIM powered by SMHI

edit: i mean the finnish 61-90 means
thanks never saw that site^^

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariete View Post
The 81-10 are available only for Finnish citizens
lol, why's that?^^
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