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Old 09-09-2013, 05:57 PM
 
Location: Toronto
626 posts, read 647,085 times
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Is anyone else watching this?

NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
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Old 09-09-2013, 06:03 PM
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Location: Western Massachusetts
45,740 posts, read 39,635,062 times
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i didn't think of that, but a hot humid air next cool dry air sounds like a recipe for severe thunderstorms. It's September, though, is it harder to have severe weather this late in the season?
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Old 09-09-2013, 06:08 PM
 
Location: Warren County, NJ
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I couldn't figure it out.What's happening?
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Old 09-09-2013, 06:13 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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here's what my forecast discussion says:

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE...BUT STILL RATHER
UNSTABLE AND WE WILL HAVE INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. SO
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE MORE LIKELY THU INTO THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATE
THU INTO THU NIGHT AS PWATS NEARING 2" WHICH IS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS AT THIS
TIME. WHILE NOT AS HOT AS WED...IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.
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Old 09-09-2013, 06:20 PM
 
Location: Warren County, NJ
706 posts, read 768,607 times
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Oh,severe storms.Got it now.Thank you!There was so much going on I couldn't quite figure it all out!
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Old 09-09-2013, 06:21 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,044 posts, read 13,102,898 times
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We will continue to hold a dry tuesday night fcst for now with the
operational models showing much of the qpf associated with the front
remaining north of the area. It will be mild a humid overnight
through with lows only dropping into the 70s over most areas...some
upper 60s across the far north.

The showery weather like we get during mid-summer will be across the
area for wed-thu night. High pressure will extend across the area
while a cold front drops toward the area thu. Showers/tstms will be
scattered around wed (mostly north/west) and they will become more
numerous thu/thu night as the cold front passes through. Cape
values/upper winds fcst could lead to some strong/svr tstms
especially thu...so we will just keep the enhanced wording in the
hwo for now.

High temperatures wed and thu will be much above normal...with wed
probably being the hottest day with maxs expected mostly in the low
90s in most areas. Since dew points will be near 70...we can expect
some uncomfortable heat index values and caution will be advised for
these days...again wording in the hwo will be retained...but not
enough confid for any excessive heat flags now. The highs on thu
will be about 5 degrees lower with more clouds/pcpn expected.

Fri and the weekend...back to more autumn like weather with high
pressure building down from ny and bringing cool/dry air. A few sct
showers possible early fri (south/east)...but other than that dry.
Highs fri and sat will mostly be upper 60s/low 70s with low 60s far
north. It will be a few degrees warmer on sunday. Lows fri/sat
nights will mostly be in the 40s...again cooler north.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....n=1&glossary=1
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Old 09-09-2013, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Long Island/NYC
11,294 posts, read 16,397,415 times
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It'd be nice, but I'm not getting my hopes up, for my location at least. This year has been a total flop in the thunderstorm department, we had a thunderstorm last winter (mid/late December) that had more bark than anything I've seen this year, despite all the heat and humidity.
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Old 09-09-2013, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Toronto
626 posts, read 647,085 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Infamous92 View Post
It'd be nice, but I'm not getting my hopes up, for my location at least. This year has been a total flop in the thunderstorm department, we had a thunderstorm last winter (mid/late December) that had more bark than anything I've seen this year, despite all the heat and humidity.
Thundersnow?
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Old 09-09-2013, 07:44 PM
 
25,060 posts, read 22,112,973 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Infamous92 View Post
It'd be nice, but I'm not getting my hopes up, for my location at least. This year has been a total flop in the thunderstorm department, we had a thunderstorm last winter (mid/late December) that had more bark than anything I've seen this year, despite all the heat and humidity.
Same down here. The last few years we've had thunderstorms practically everyday, minimum one or two every week. This year the amount of storms we had I can count with one hand. If it rained, it was just plain rain, even in copious amounts. The few storms we did manage to get consisted of a few rumbles of thunder, then quiet
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Old 09-09-2013, 09:47 PM
 
Location: Long Island/NYC
11,294 posts, read 16,397,415 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Christina311 View Post
Thundersnow?
Nope, it was a regular thunderstorm, strangely enough. It lasted less than 10 minutes, and it even felt a little humid when the sun came back out. Very strange for December.

Quote:
Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed View Post
Same down here. The last few years we've had thunderstorms practically everyday, minimum one or two every week. This year the amount of storms we had I can count with one hand. If it rained, it was just plain rain, even in copious amounts. The few storms we did manage to get consisted of a few rumbles of thunder, then quiet
Same here, it's very odd, last summer we were under severe t-storm warnings nearly every week, sometimes 2-3 in a single a day. This year has been just as you described, no matter how impressive things looked on radar. The few (maybe 3) t-storms I've witnessed this year have featured a few rumbles of thunder (usually faint) before going silent, and the only lightning I've seen this year was a faint flash in the distance from a storm that missed my area. But it's only a matter of time before something wild happens, the weather here is never this calm for too long.
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