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The daily records are under the freezing mark for most of September, but that doesn't mean there's a high probability of getting a frost in September (except maybe right at the end). Though here, there may be, but I don't remember getting one in September:
50% chance of "air frost" before Oct 1. Ground frost may be earlier, but it's hard to tell. The chance of getting the first air frost after Oct 15 is low, < 10%.
Agree for "some" areas.
Here's NY's first frost dates. Many areas are in September.
Here's the U.S "freeze" average. So one can say frost would happen a bit sooner. Look at Maine, New Hampshire, Southern Vermont, and higher elevations of NY & CT "by October 1st". That means frost is possible in September there.
Chicago's first frost occurs between October 21st and 31st, however in the suburbs away from the lake it's earlier usually between October 1st through the 10th.
My hometown (Long Island) is after Nov 10! Similar to many oceanic climates! I always like to think we had a bit of oceanic-ness to our climate, about as good as you can get anywhere in the northern US.
I don't usually find it much of a shock. There will generally be a few nights in the 1-3C range, in the weeks leading up to the first frost
Well here usually it is about 8c one night and hen it will drop below 0c. There is no clue etc that it is coming. It just randomly comes.
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