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View Poll Results: Which of the following outlier events is most likely to happen this winter?
Snow accumulation in Miami Beach 8 30.77%
Snow accumulation in coastal San Diego 14 53.85%
Bankgok records it's first subfreezing night 1 3.85%
Vostok station records it's first above freezing daytime high 3 11.54%
Voters: 26. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 09-18-2013, 09:34 PM
 
Location: HERE
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Which of the following outlier events is most likely to happen this winter?

A) Miami Beach gets it's first measurable snow accumulation in recorded history.
B) Coastal San Diego gets it's first measurable snow accumulation in recorded history.
C) Bangkok gets its first subfreezing night in recorded history (no snow as it's under clear skies)
D) Vostok station in Antarctica measures it's first above freezing high in recorded history (I'm referring to a Northern hemisphere winter which would be their summer).

Yes, I know all four are HIGHLY unlikely but pick the one that's LEAST farfetched and if for extra credit, rate them from the most likely to the least likely.
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Old 09-18-2013, 10:35 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
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Just a random guess, but B might be the most likely. Wiki article for San diego mentions that it has had snow flurries a handful of times, with accumulation at higher elevations. So maybe it is possible. Miami has had snow flurries once I think, and it could get accumulation at some point too I guess, so second place.

C and D are both highly unlikely, as Bangkok has a record low of 10C and Vostok a record high of -12C. Perhaps with global warming Vostok will reach freezing first.

B , A, D, C in order of most likely.
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Old 09-18-2013, 11:28 PM
 
Location: HERE
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crunch41 View Post
Just a random guess, but B might be the most likely. Wiki article for San diego mentions that it has had snow flurries a handful of times, with accumulation at higher elevations. So maybe it is possible. Miami has had snow flurries once I think, and it could get accumulation at some point too I guess, so second place.

C and D are both highly unlikely, as Bangkok has a record low of 10C and Vostok a record high of -12C. Perhaps with global warming Vostok will reach freezing first.

B , A, D, C in order of most likely.
Remember that while San Diego has cooler average temps than Miami, Miami has WAY more standard deviation and variation.
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Old 09-19-2013, 12:56 AM
 
Location: North West Northern Ireland.
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The foruth one.
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Old 09-19-2013, 03:03 AM
 
Location: Rome
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I echo Crunch41's answer.

So, B - A - D - C.

And I also agree that C and D are so unlikely as to be bordering the impossible.
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Old 09-19-2013, 03:09 AM
B87
 
Location: Norwich, UK
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Snow in Miami. It has snowed in Miami before.
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Old 09-19-2013, 04:43 AM
 
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B - A - D - C.

It looks like this is what we agree on.

My logic:

It has snowed in San Diego more than once, so it is possible.

It snowed in Miami once, so it may be a one-time-event.

Perhaps Vostok will reach 0.1 C (32.2 F) faster than Bangkok gets 0.0 C (32.0 F), as Vostok is warming, like the other parts of the world. Or maybe I'm wrong?
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Old 09-19-2013, 05:42 AM
 
Location: North West Northern Ireland.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dry Heat View Post
I echo Crunch41's answer.

So, B - A - D - C.

And I also agree that C and D are so unlikely as to be bordering the impossible.
Impossible for above 0c? Really!
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Old 09-19-2013, 07:35 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AdriannaSmiling View Post
Remember that while San Diego has cooler average temps than Miami, Miami has WAY more standard deviation and variation.
Miami might have more of a standard deviation (not way more)....but the Miami normals are much warmer than the San Diego or LA normals. In January San Diego is 64/49....Santa Barbara is 64/40....and Miami is 77/60. Even if Miami was 10 F below normal - it would still be warmer than any areas in coastal southern CA. So they should have a better chance in southern CA than in southern Florida it would seem.

This might be why there has never been measurable snow ever recorded in Miami (only a trace in 1977)....but both LA and San Diego have had measurable snowfall (several times). While the record is T in Miami, its 3.5 inches in LA and 4.8 inches in San Diego. This is LA in 1949..

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Old 10-03-2013, 07:53 PM
 
Location: HERE
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Miami might have more of a standard deviation (not way more)....but the Miami normals are much warmer than the San Diego or LA normals. In January San Diego is 64/49....Santa Barbara is 64/40....and Miami is 77/60. Even if Miami was 10 F below normal - it would still be warmer than any areas in coastal southern CA. So they should have a better chance in southern CA than in southern Florida it would seem.

This might be why there has never been measurable snow ever recorded in Miami (only a trace in 1977)....but both LA and San Diego have had measurable snowfall (several times). While the record is T in Miami, its 3.5 inches in LA and 4.8 inches in San Diego. This is LA in 1949..
Those snow accumulations in San Diego were in elevated areas inland. I don't think the coast has ever gotten more than a trace. Anyway, about the standard deviation, coastal San Francisco and Miami both have the exact same all time record low of 27 F despite San Francisco's summers in the 50s with fog and wind which is a far cry from Miami's 90s and humidity with lows rarely dropping below 75 from May through October. San Francisco's coastal high temperatures only reaches above 75 about 15 days a year. Miami has far more seasonality than the immediate coast of California. 20 miles inland in California is different. I think Miami has a slightly higher chance of snow accumulation than San Diego due to the cold fronts that have a much greater departure from the mean than a "cold snap" in San Diego could do.

As for the freeze in Bangkok or the thaw at Vostok, I do agree that both are far more unlikely than snow in Miami or San Diego but I still think it might be on the edge of possible as a one time outlier event.

Last edited by AdriannaSmiling; 10-03-2013 at 08:17 PM..
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