Quote:
Originally Posted by miamihurricane555
Yea like i said it could b the start of rainy season or just another false start(we have had 2 so far).
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As far as that TS, the GFS lost it past few runs but just shows a little system with moisture but that's after June 1st.
Here's
HPC rainfall forecast next 7 days.
As far as the current flow...not your type of flow if Florida wants a ton of rain. You have to rely on convective type mostly or those sea breezes.. Moisture rides the edges of the ridge/trough and no storms can enter the area with that ridge there. That cut off Low over NM will move Eastbound this week.
NWS Tampa Posting a lot of their discussion but it's a great learning tool for others to see.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION TO THE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
GREAT LAKES
AT THE SURFACE...DOMINANT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACEMENT IS PROVIDING A LIGHT
E-ESE SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE
THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WARM
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS WILL RISE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND REACH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
INLAND AND 80S AT THE BEACHES. TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED BETWEEN AROUND NOON AND 1PM.
(TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CUT-OFF U/L LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP PUMP UP A
WEAK U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA.
SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
(THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS
THE U/L LOW STALLS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GRADUALLY
FILLS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND WILL INDUCE STRONG RIDGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS THURSDAY...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BRIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA FRIDAY AND HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE EXTENDED HOLDING STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...