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Old 05-25-2014, 07:40 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Nice, you beat me. We should have a contest who has a higher temp each day from here on out. Spring Summer the winner is the highest. Fall & winter the lower the temp is the winner. LOL
Nice idea, but maybe in reverse? Winner is the cooler temperatures in spring and summer, warmer for winter and spring.
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Old 05-25-2014, 08:56 PM
 
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9PM forecast update for ORD... Looks like humidity will build the next couple of days and we may be dodging some scattered storms


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Old 05-25-2014, 10:14 PM
 
Location: Miami,FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G8RCAT View Post
You beat me...just wait til mid week. Although with less humidity there. How is there a heat index under those conditions?






Meanwhile in Tampa Bay:


Yea like i said it could b the start of rainy season or just another false start(we have had 2 so far). But even if it is a false start summer isn't far away with NWS basically guaranteeing summer will arive at the latest early next week. I won't be here for it either way since I leave on Tuesday morning to Colombia
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Old 05-26-2014, 04:32 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miamihurricane555 View Post
Yea like i said it could b the start of rainy season or just another false start(we have had 2 so far).
As far as that TS, the GFS lost it past few runs but just shows a little system with moisture but that's after June 1st.

Here's HPC rainfall forecast next 7 days.



As far as the current flow...not your type of flow if Florida wants a ton of rain. You have to rely on convective type mostly or those sea breezes.. Moisture rides the edges of the ridge/trough and no storms can enter the area with that ridge there. That cut off Low over NM will move Eastbound this week.



NWS Tampa Posting a lot of their discussion but it's a great learning tool for others to see.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2014

08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION TO THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
GREAT LAKES

AT THE SURFACE...DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS PLACEMENT IS PROVIDING A LIGHT
E-ESE SYNOPTIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE
THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WARM
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 70S FOR MOST SPOTS WILL RISE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND REACH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
INLAND AND 80S AT THE BEACHES. TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED BETWEEN AROUND NOON AND 1PM.

(TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CUT-OFF U/L LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP PUMP UP A
WEAK U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

(THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS
THE U/L LOW STALLS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GRADUALLY
FILLS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND WILL INDUCE STRONG RIDGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS THURSDAY...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BRIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA FRIDAY AND HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE EXTENDED HOLDING STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...
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Old 05-26-2014, 05:50 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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For those wondering...

The Northeast is still under a northwest flow at most levels of the atmosphere.. it will prevent any mugginess from hitting us hard. Some expected pop ups as usual. Enjoy the Dry Warmth!

This is the current Upper level flow and dewpoints.

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Old 05-26-2014, 05:52 AM
 
Location: North West Northern Ireland.
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Omg look at those dew points in FL!!

Oh dear
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Old 05-26-2014, 06:39 AM
 
Location: Paris
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No big deal for there methinks. Key West aside, south Texas looks stickier on this map.


Turbulent sky behind a shelf cloud in southern France:
http://i58.servimg.com/u/f58/11/50/52/19/imgk4810.jpg

Mesocyclone shots from yesterday in the SW fringes of Paris region, didn't know there was a risk for tstorms that day:
http://www.keraunos.org/img/actualit...llule-1-11.jpg
http://imageshack.com/a/img837/5825/b0c0.jpg
http://imageshack.com/a/img844/8558/9fop.jpg
http://www.infoclimat.fr/photolive/p...0520141844.jpg
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Old 05-26-2014, 07:20 AM
 
Location: North West Northern Ireland.
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Well I find 60 degree dew points hell on earth!!
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Old 05-26-2014, 07:36 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
46,009 posts, read 53,324,806 times
Reputation: 15179
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac15 View Post
Well I find 60 degree dew points hell on earth!!
As low as 60°F? What else would you expect from Florida? Dew points should average in the low 70s there.
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Old 05-26-2014, 07:40 AM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
As far as that TS, the GFS lost it past few runs but just shows a little system with moisture but that's after June 1st.

Here's HPC rainfall forecast next 7 days.


8 inches of rain possible for SW Louisiana and SE Texas?

That area needs the rain, as moderate to severe drought conditions have developed there. Lake Charles has about a 10 inch rain deficit for the year with barely any rain since mid-April. Let's just hope too much doesn't come too fast.

It looks like at least 5 inches for my area is predicted by that forecast.
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