Great discussion by NWS Boston. Missed me by 150 miles, wow. I just hope they are prepared. Posting most of discussion to look back on..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON MA
442 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VERY LATE TUE NIGHT/WED AM ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS...WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISH IMPACTS HEADING NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...DIMINISHING WIND AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT.WE FOLLOWED COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AND IT/S POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD BEEVEN COLDER IN THE FAVORED RADIATOR LOCATIONS BUT DID NOT STRAYFAR FROM GUIDANCE AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO NW MA AND SW NH. TUESDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AS COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE FROM THE SE US COAST. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY BUT RIDGING EXTENDING TO WEST OF THE SFC HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO KEEP IT MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...A BIT COLDER NW HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* POTENTIAL BLIZZARD WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS
* GUSTS OF 55-65 MPH W/LOW PROB UP TO HURRICANE FORCE CAPE/ACK
* SHARP CUTOFF IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR
* LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DETAILS...
POTENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME A COMPLETE BOMB AS PRESSURE DROPS 30 MB IN JUST 12 HOURS! IN FACT...SOME OF OUR GUIDANCE TAKES THE STORM CENTER DOWN TO 950 MB BY WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE IF THIS STORM TRACKED INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL BE PASSING CLOSE TO 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE BULK OF THE STORM/S FURY TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...WITH SNOW/WIND THREAT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO THE NORTHWEST. TIMING OF THIS LOOKS VERYLATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY BE A VERY SERIOUS STORM FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE ONE THING WE REALLY WANT EMPHASIZE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. TREMENDOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR 955 MB EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND AND A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET. THIS
MAY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES ALONG WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WILL CONTINUE BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS REGION WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FOOT OF SNOW. DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADETO BLIZZARD WARNINGS YET...SINCE ITS LATE 3RD AND 4TH PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL IS STILL NOT ON BOARD WITH THE ECMWF...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW OUT OVER THE OCEAN SO DON/T WANT TO LOCK US INTO SOMETHING GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY.