SouthEast-MidAtlantic Snow/Ice storm January 28-29, 2014 (night, locations, freeze, degree)

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Latest Surface Map you can see the front sagged down to the gulf. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/



Current temps. You can see the rain breaking out along the front. The very beginning stages.

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Look at the Warning upgrades. Wow.

Not too often we see Winter Warnings across the south from Texas to Virginia and 31 states with a Wind Chill advisory

http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/warnings/all/us.html

[chicagogeorge]

[Cambium]

Those in the areas where ice will fall start having plans in place. Some areas might get up to an inch of ice and that will weigh down tree limbs and power lines. Even if power lines don't actually come down I've experienced the sagging of them puts a strain on the transformers and they start blowing.

Area in dark purple on the right is the areas with the most chance of seeing over 1/2" ice accumulation

Winter Storm Leon Forecast: Major Snow, Ice From Gulf Coast to Georgia, Carolinas, Virginia - weather.com Heavy Snow and Ice on the Way



Here's Savannah's data from the NAM this morning. That's a lot of precip with surface below freezing and warm aloft.

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Don't forget this link guys... Click on state on left, station, and model. It gives you a timeline of the precip and type of precip.

NCEP Model Time-Series (BUFR) Forecast Hourly Weather Data

Here's Myrtle Beach. 1.13" of sleet. 0.20" of snow. That's liquid inches not snow total.

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Latest NAM snow depth by Wednesday morning. This is 10:1 ratio so lower amounts in areas of heavy wet low ratio snows

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By the way... Models trending west which means coastal NJ might be in the game for snow now Wed morning. Maybe an inch or 2

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Current Radar. There's the snow and the mixed precip showing up.

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Current Watches and Warnings Map. A Rarely seen Ice Storm Warning down there.

[Cambium]

Current temps, radar and the SPC concerned Outline for Wintry Precip. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0037.html



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...CENTRAL AND SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN
AL...AND PART OF WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 281123Z - 281630Z

SUMMARY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY
SLEET ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA BY 12Z WITH
SLEET PERSISTING THROUGH THE MORNING. A SIMILAR TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EWD OVER MUCH OF SRN MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO SRN AL
BY 18Z AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN THESE AREAS FROM W-E.

MEANWHILE...FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH PER 3 HOURS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE AFTER 15Z OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TO SERN LA...EXCLUDING AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST IN SERN
LA...WITH FREEZING RAIN ALSO THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER FAR SERN
MS...FAR SWRN-SRN AL AND ADJACENT WRN FL PANHANDLE. FAR SERN
LA...CLOSER TO THE COAST...SHOULD BE REMAIN RAIN THROUGH 18Z AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ABOVE 32 F.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED
OVER E TX/NRN LA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EWD THROUGH 18Z ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A 06Z RESEARCH
SOUNDING AT TEXAS A&M /COLLEGE STATION TX/ INDICATED A WARM LAYER
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 750-850 MB WITH THE 800 MB TEMPERATURE AT +6-7
C. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAVE RESULTED IN A SATURATION PROCESS
BELOW 850 MB. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITHIN AN INITIALLY DRIER...COLD
AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA. AS THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
SHIFTS EWD THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN
A VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SLEET THAN
FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH SWRN-CENTRAL LA. A SIMILAR
TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FARTHER
EWD OVER SRN MS TO SWRN AL BETWEEN 15-18Z.

MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SERN LA THROUGH FAR SERN MS...AND FAR SWRN-SRN AL
AND ADJACENT WRN FL PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. LOW
LEVEL WAA SHOULD BE PROLONGED THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THESE
AREAS...WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TO SUB-FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES
ALREADY PRESENT.