We missed out on the storm yesterday, the one hitting the east coast now. The one coming in tomorrow is gunning for us, though. It looks like Indianapolis will be just north of the ice line. Current forecasts are for snow to move in late afternoon tomorrow and be heavy overnight with 5-9 inches along and north of the I-70 corridor and 3-6 inches south with some freezing rain and sleet mixed in, with .25 to .5 inches of ice with a few inches of snow across the southern part of Indiana. I'll take the 5-9 inches of snow as opposed to the ice. Still concern for this system to weaken as a new storm forms off the East Coast and sucks the energy away. Models still trending a bit further south. And a couple models still trying to show a dry slot working it. Currently, a Winter Storm Watch is up from just south of I-70 north to the Indiana/Michigan state line from 1PM tomorrow until 1PM Wednesday.
Latest update from the National Weather Service:
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SIGNIFICANT STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DECENT CHANGES RUN TO RUN ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IT/S ENERGY TRANSFER TO A COASTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. THUS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. WHILE THE
NAM IS MOVING CLOSER TO OTHER MODELS...IT STILL IS RUNNING A BIT MORE NORTH AND WARMER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE SUITE. THUS WILL STICK WITH MORE OF AN
ECMWF AND
GFS CONSENSUS.
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD COOLING. WITH SNOW COVER IN THE NORTH COULD SEE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAW MODEL CONSENSUS NUMBERS CAPTURED THIS BETTER THAN
MOS.
TUESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE MORNING WILL BE DRY. BY AFTERNOON THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OF THE GULF AND A WARM
FRONT TAKES SHAPE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP AT 18Z AND
FRONTOGENESIS BAND STARTS SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA. BY 0Z THIS BAND IS STRONG AND SOME
INSTABILITY IS COLLOCATED WITH IT ALOFT WHICH COULD LEAD TO BANDING. BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z FORCING ALOFT ARRIVES AS EVIDENCED BY GOOD Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON 1.5 PV SURFACE. MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST FORCING COMING TO A HALT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT THE LATEST RUNS ARE STILL SHOWING A LITTLE
QPF HANGING AROUND INTO THE MORNING. ALSO WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO THE EAST COAST SYSTEM AND THESE GUSTS ALONG WITH THE FRESH SNOW COULD CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE EVEN AFTER ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKING LIKE 5-9 INCHES FROM I-70 NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF A CRAWFORDSVILLE TO ANDERSON LINE. ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 REMAINING SNOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY IN SOLUTIONS THOUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME
GFS SOUNDINGS FAVOR SLEET AND WENT IN THIS DIRECTION. THIS MIXTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER HERE AND MORE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE. THUS WITH LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LEFT SOUTHERN COUNTIES OUT OF
WATCH.
The good news for us is the storm system for this coming weekend is looking much further south and east.
THE 00Z
ECMWF AND
GFS ARE KEEPING A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EASTERN CANADA WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE BLEND WOULD RESULT IN THE BULK OF ANY SNOWFALL BEING EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE 00Z
GFS AND AND
ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A NOREASTER...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER TO PULL THE SYSTEM OUT...A FULL 24 HOURS FASTER IN TAKING THE
DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN IS MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL
GFS OWING TO THE LACK OF CLUSTERING WITH EACH PERTURBATION IN THE
ENSEMBLE. SO...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION...AGAIN IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...LOWERED REGIONAL ALLBLEND
POPS SLIGHTLY. AT THIS POINT...
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL CANADIAN THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE SNOW.
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