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Old 01-29-2014, 05:17 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Might as well start. Storm is happening... just a question of details which we wont know better until this weekend.

Quick summary "as of right now".

EURO has big snowstorm from Ohio Valley to New England.
Canadian also has big snowstorm
GFS has a big rain storm except for northern tier


I'll keep this thread updated on this potential. I put "winter storm" in the title because its way too early to say snowstorm even though majority consensus shows it.

Quick technical explanation. Storm comes out of the TN Valley. Question is what happens when it enters the Ohio valley. A new coastal low will develop. So If the Ohio valley storm transfers the energy to the coastal low south of NJ then many folks will get a big snowstorm.

Look what the GFS does... This is Wednesday Morning. It takes the low all the way up to PA/NY near the Lake



Then... it transfers to the coastal WAY too late near Boston. This is a rain storm for everyone east of the Apps except for northern New England.


Last edited by Rozenn; 02-02-2014 at 03:43 PM..
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Old 01-29-2014, 06:10 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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NWS Mt Holly Discussion. Basically saying the regular (operational) models will naturally flip flop but the ensembles are more agreeing with each other so they're relying on them now.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014


TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND RIDE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN VASTLY DIFFERENT FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND THIS FORECAST USES THE ENSEMBLE MEANSREGARDING
THE TRACK. RIGHT NOW THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A
PRIMARY LOW TO TRACK JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A SECONDARY LOW
TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINAS OR DELMARVA, SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z ECMWF.
SNOW WOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WOULD CHANGE TO ICE AND RAIN
THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW DEPARTS. LEFT ICE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW. THIS MATCHES THE APPROACH FROM WPC. RIGHT NOW TWO THINGS STAND
OUT WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST IS HOW FAR SOUTH DOES THE
PV EXTEND. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM.
SECOND, IS HOW STRONG IS THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AS IT COMES NORTHEAST.

THE STRONGER THE ENERGY THE MORE LIKELY WE
ARE TO SEE A NORTHERN CLIMB WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OPERATIONAL RUNS WILL LIKELY FLIP AND FLOP MORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK. GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A LOW PRESSURE WENT FAIRLY HIGH ON CHANCE POPS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY BEFORE THOSE CAN
BE IRONED OUT.
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Old 01-29-2014, 06:12 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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We'll know better by this weekend. Don't cancel anything yet but Try to work your plans around Wednesday north of DC/NYC
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Old 01-30-2014, 06:09 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Quick update...

GFS6z HR 138 (Tuesday Evening) Position of storm allowing places like Chicago, Indiana, Ohio to get snow. Take a look at that downward blue line in the East... Classic CAD signature. High pressure to the north will funnel cold air at the surface. So GFS says lots of snow to start but because it doesn't transfer early enough it changes to rain in the East.

It makes the transfer to a coastal near Maine. Waaay too far for snow for anyone south of Boston

Canadian model makes the transfer near NYC

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Old 01-30-2014, 06:18 AM
 
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At the moment, model showing substantial snow fro Chi-area





Last edited by chicagogeorge; 01-30-2014 at 06:26 AM..
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Old 01-30-2014, 07:08 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post


At the moment, model showing substantial snow fro Chi-area


To early to be looking at the details but interesting to see.

Here's the GFS6z data for 4 locations Tuesday morning to Wednesday Evening.

Keep in mind the precip you see is for the previous 6 hrs. In other words... 0.10" in Chicago on the Tues 18z line means precip from Tuesday 7am to Tuesday 1pm. So you have to look at the temps prior.


Chicago 0.65" qpf of all snow. At 15:1 ratios that means 8-10" of snow.
Islip on Long Island 1.52" qpf starts as a little snow but mostly all rain
DC 0.88" qpf all rain. Cold rain to start then warms up to 7C
Burlington Vermont 0.49" qpf all snow

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Old 01-30-2014, 01:03 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Agreement on the 12z model update is almost scary 6 days out. I have to naturally assume it will change and NOT be this solution but maybe close to it?

EURO, Canadian, GFS 850 temps and Surface. HR144 Wednesday Morning.

Not good for anyone south of NY to get snow. Gonna have to enjoy and depend on that front end thump first which can still drop a nice amount with this setup, then worry about the surface staying below freezing with the mid levels warming up. aka ICE

Midwest/Great Lakes in the game for snow.



February 9th storm still showing up as well. That one looks even more interesting.
Attached Thumbnails
February 2014 Northeast/MidAtlantic Winter Storms-models1.jpg  
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Old 01-30-2014, 01:21 PM
 
Location: Southern New Jersey
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Obviously don't know what to make of this yet. It would be quite disappointing if we got rain instead of snow.

Also, I remember that it's long been reported by those interested in this Super Bowl's weather that the Farmer's Almanac has something like "big storms, rain, snow" for Super Bowl weekend. Crazy how it looks like they may have only been a couple days off in the timing of this.
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Old 01-30-2014, 01:36 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snj90 View Post
Obviously don't know what to make of this yet. It would be quite disappointing if we got rain instead of snow.

Also, I remember that it's long been reported by those interested in this Super Bowl's weather that the Farmer's Almanac has something like "big storms, rain, snow" for Super Bowl weekend. Crazy how it looks like they may have only been a couple days off in the timing of this.
Yup but there's still rain/snow in the forecast for Saturday & Sunday too. Just nothing big or cold enough for all snow for NJ. But your right, Close though with the 5th storm..
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Old 01-31-2014, 07:40 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Instead of my analysis Here's NWS Boston Discussion. I'm Posting whole thing but will summarize via color codes:

*4 different events within 1 week. Tomorrow, Monday, Wednesday, Saturday

*Sunday night/Monday morning banding snows possible similar to last event where the coast saw significant accumulations

*They are happy about the Quiet weather Tuesday

*Stronger than normal storm for this time of year with deep tropical moisture filling the atmosphere with liquid. The track of the Mid Level low pressure will usher in warmer air at the mid levels but not before snow accumulates. Snow to ice to rain is the possible scenario. But the energies have not been sampled too good yet. (has to come into U.S)

* Quiet weather Thursday and Friday with High pressure and fresh arctic air moving back in


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
638 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- MOSTLY RAIN AND MILD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
- SEASONABLE AND QUIET FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
- A SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT

*/ OVERVIEW...

CONFLUENCE OF A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME /WITH DISTURBANCES OF PACIFIC- AND
POLAR-ORIGIN/ ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS PREFERRED SUGGESTING
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A
COMMON THEME OF CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EVOLVING
NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A TOTAL
OF FOUR DIFFERENT SYSTEMS IN ROUGHLY THE SPAN OF A WEEK.

*/ DAY TO DAY DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

AS STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...AN INSIDE-RUNNER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER PRESENTS AN OVER-RUNNING SCENARIO FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS
THE CONFLUENCE OF SPLIT-FLOW REGIMES RESULTS IN SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING
AND FALLING HEIGHTS THEREBY AMPLIFYING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM-MOIST
ADVECTION FROM SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS ALONG AND AHEAD.

BROAD-SCALE FORCING IS APPARENT PER ISENTROPIC AND FRONTOGENETICAL
MEANS...AS WELL AS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE-RATES ABOVE THE WARM-
AIR INVERSION. FEEL THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY WITH ANY WINTRY
MIX MAINLY AS FREEZING RAIN CONFINED TO THE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHERN NH AMONGST THE HIGH TERRAIN. LOWERED
CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. ANY ICE
AND/OR SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE VERY MINOR.

ONLY CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES VARY LIKELY
DUE TO PACIFIC ENERGY ON THE HEELS OF THE POLAR-IMPULSE USURPING THE
BETTER GULF MOISTURE LIMITING ITS EXTENT TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH ARE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY CLEARS OUT LATE IN THE
DAY TOWARDS EVENING. COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MARCH IN ADVECTED BY W/NW
FLOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE RRQ OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET INVOKES LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NOW A REMNANT OF THE EARLIER POLAR-ORIGIN INSIDE-RUNNER LOW. THE
DEVELOPED LOW OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY.

A HEADACHE AS OF LATE PER THE LATEST 31.0Z ECMWF WHICH HAS GREATLY
AMPLIFIED BOTH THE PACIFIC ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT OUTCOMES...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
/H6-7/ ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK UNDERCUT BY SURFACE COLD AND DRY AIR
RESULTS IN THE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BOTH POTENTIAL H85-7 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AROUND H7 OF THE ANTICYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT
COULD YIELD OUTCOMES SIMILAR TO THAT WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON JANUARY
29TH /WHERE THE SOUTH-COAST SAW SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. BUT
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
LOCATION OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND TRAINING LOW. AGAIN...THE MODEL
HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES IS UNDER SUSPICION.

MUCH OF THE ACTION BEGINS EARLY MONDAY AND IS LIKELY TO HAVE
IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS JUST BEGINNING TO BE SAMPLED
ALONG THE WEST-COAST. HAVE CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS PER A NON-GFS
CONSIDERATION. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE PLAUSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

A BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER...HOORAY! A QUIET PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS NEW BRUNSWICK
/THIS IS KEY TO THE LATER FORECAST/. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

WORD OF CAUTION...INTERACTION AND EVOLUTION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM IMPULSES THE TIMING OF WHICH HAS BEEN VARIED AMONG FORECAST
GUIDANCE HAVE NOT EVEN YET BEEN SAMPLED IN GREAT DETAIL. THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY AS OF YET CONCERNING OUTCOMES AND SURFACE IMPACTS.

NEVERTHELESS...FOCUSING ON THE PATH AND EVOLUTION OF THE H85 LOW
WHICH HAS EXHIBITED A MORE CONSISTENT TRACK RECORD WITHIN FORECAST
SOLUTIONS /ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND/. SUCH A TRACK WOULD DRAW WARMER
AIR FURTHER BACK ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH
A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION APPARENT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW...PRECIP-TYPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLICATED DURING ONSET OF THE STORM AND WARMER-AIR BUILDING ALOFT
ALONG THE INITIAL WARM FRONT. ANTICIPATING A SNOWY START CHANGING
OVER TO A WINTRY MIX FOLLOWED BY RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE INTERIOR NORTH AND WEST. AN ANOMALOUS STORM /AS IT IS APPEARING/
DRAWING UP SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP-SOUTH MAY ALSO
RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN /MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST AS IT
APPEARS/. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES IN WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

ANOTHER POTENTIAL LULL IN THE WEATHER. THE DEPARTING CONTINUALLY
STRENGTHENING STORM DRAGS ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD. ANTICIPATING
BELOW- NORMAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
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