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Old 01-30-2014, 10:01 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
3,465 posts, read 2,511,099 times
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Default Will this record cold mean record heat in the summer?

Every year that I lived in the East where there were record cold temps in the winter, the summer was one of the hottest on record.

I tried to figure it out, but I think what happens is a record cold winter means that it was very dry and thus the landscape is all parched out. Also, the Gulf of Mexico is cooler than normal in these years, since it is a shallower body of water than the Atlantic Ocean it can be cooled down quicker.

What this means is that upper level high pressure can center over the Gulf of Mexico early on and since the interior is bone dry from the arctic weather, the landscape can be heavily modified by the strong sun angle once this scenario comes. With the Gulf cooler, thunderstorm activity is inhibited which means hotter and drier conditions than normal. Then, the Bermuda high can be more dominant later in the summer as well since low pressure is less likely to form and prevent the Bermuda high from taking over.

What this most likely means is record breaking heat in Chicago, NYC, Boston, DC this summer. Texas may indeed have another record drought and repeat of 2011. In 2011, the record drought year in TX, severe arctic outbreaks were common in the winter as well.

Maybe someone on here can correlate the hottest summers and see what the winters in those corresponding years were like and I think they'll see this correlation.
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Old 01-30-2014, 10:33 AM
 
Location: U.S.A.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cBach View Post
Every year that I lived in the East where there were record cold temps in the winter, the summer was one of the hottest on record.

I tried to figure it out, but I think what happens is a record cold winter means that it was very dry and thus the landscape is all parched out. Also, the Gulf of Mexico is cooler than normal in these years, since it is a shallower body of water than the Atlantic Ocean it can be cooled down quicker.

What this means is that upper level high pressure can center over the Gulf of Mexico early on and since the interior is bone dry from the arctic weather, the landscape can be heavily modified by the strong sun angle once this scenario comes. With the Gulf cooler, thunderstorm activity is inhibited which means hotter and drier conditions than normal. Then, the Bermuda high can be more dominant later in the summer as well since low pressure is less likely to form and prevent the Bermuda high from taking over.

What this most likely means is record breaking heat in Chicago, NYC, Boston, DC this summer. Texas may indeed have another record drought and repeat of 2011. In 2011, the record drought year in TX, severe arctic outbreaks were common in the winter as well.

Maybe someone on here can correlate the hottest summers and see what the winters in those corresponding years were like and I think they'll see this correlation.
You might be right but I hope not, also, 2011 featured historic floods and historic drought conditions, and no two years will ever be exactly alike when it comes to weather. It could be possible that Another 2012 could be lurking which would be a very bad omen, but at least for those who hate humidity, myself not included in that crowd it would be a dry heat rather than the usual oppressive humidity that usually predominates during the summer, also would be a bad omen since a dry heat would exacerbate any fire danger and make any droughts that form even worse than they otherwise would be with the muggy weather. I Hope that this summer isn't a record hot summer but there is nothing anyone can do in regards to whatever mother nature has in store for the summer of 2014.
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Old 01-30-2014, 10:57 AM
 
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I don't see any correlation between extreme cold and snow in the winter which would lead to a hot summer. At least not for Chicago as I studied the years and found of the top 10 coldest winters only 3 were follow by hot summers. There were four summers that were much cooler than normal, and 3 that were around normal.

More recently, the winter of 07/08 which was very snowy and colder than average was followed by a lame summer. Winter of 08/09 was very cold, and snow, was followed by one of the coolest summers on record. Winter of 10/11 was snowy, was follow a good summer (especially July).


Imho, what will determine the summer here in the Midwest is how much rain falls during the spring. More rain, usually means cooler summers. Less spring rains, hotter summers.
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Old 01-30-2014, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Not one itota of data points to hot summers following cold winters. Old wives tale.

The fact is that winters were much colder in the 80's, and a number of years we had particularly cool summers. We had temps in the upper 40's on a few nights in August of 1982, and that was following a very cold winter.
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Old 01-30-2014, 01:10 PM
 
Location: Lexington, KY
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Can anything be linked to above average dew points? That's what I want the most.
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Old 01-30-2014, 01:44 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cBach View Post
Every year that I lived in the East where there were record cold temps in the winter, the summer was one of the hottest on record. .
Every year? Curious which years did you live in the East? There's no correlation but graphs, data, and stats would be lovely to see.

Winter 2002-03 vs Summer 2003. Ridge stayed out West. Kinda seems like an Atlantic ridge pushed East coast too. This may be our look again this summer


Attached Thumbnails
Will this record cold mean record heat in the summer?-temps.jpg  
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Old 01-30-2014, 04:20 PM
 
Location: U.S.A.
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Call me Biased on this but it seems like a number of people who have commented on this thread feel that we may not have much of a summer at all if any of the analog years are repeating themselves which featured colder than normal winters followed by lame cool summers.
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Old 01-30-2014, 04:22 PM
 
Location: The front porch outside of the Astral Plane
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I am hopeful it means record fewer bugs as far as the heat goes I stay inside when it gets really hot and humid because of my illness and breathing issues.
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Old 01-30-2014, 04:24 PM
 
Location: U.S.A.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Every year? Curious which years did you live in the East? There's no correlation but graphs, data, and stats would be lovely to see.

Winter 2002-03 vs Summer 2003. Ridge stayed out West. Kinda seems like an Atlantic ridge pushed East coast too. This may be our look again this summer

Interesting Graphic Pic you've got there, the cooler than average temperatures were mainly in the south and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys that year, this also seems a lot like what the summer of 2013 was like, cooler than average for Parts of the Central United States and the Southeast United States and Warmer than Average in The New England and much of the Western U.S., I just know that the summer of 2014 won't be a carbon copy of the 2003 summer or this past summer.
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Old 01-30-2014, 04:38 PM
 
Location: U.S.A.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G8RCAT View Post
Can anything be linked to above average dew points? That's what I want the most.
There has not been any correlation that I know of what causes one particular summer to be more humid than a typical summer, but, heck, it seems to me that since you live in the south, it will always be muggy in the summer, whether or not actual dew points are average for your area lower than average or higher than average, the Southern United States is Fam.........er............Infamous for their style of Humidity and their weeks of Dew Points of 70 F or Higher. The one major possible correlation between whether a summer is Humid by regional standards or drier than average humidity wise most likely relates to how much soil moisture is present.........at least that is how it works in the Midwestern United States, higher than average soil moisture aka wetter than average conditions usually equate to more humid than usual conditions, and on the opposite spectrum, dry ground tends to lead to overall less humid conditions than average such as during a drought, although this isn't and may not always be the case, as some summers are more Humid than Other Summers regardless of precipitation levels. So I don't really know but I know that one Version of the Farmers almanac(The Red Farmers Almanac) is predicting what they call for places east of the Mississippi River to be Oppressively Humid, Warm, and More Stormy than Normal, so if this prediction pans out, then that would suggest that Much of the Central to Eastern United States may have Higher than Average Dew Points this Summer, but time will tell what kind of humidity levels and Dew Points will occur for the summer of 2014, One thing is for sure, the same book has been proven largely accurate overall for their winter weather predictions(Here in Indiana"Biting Cold and Snowy", which overall I find has been almost right on the money accurate)
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